Eugene
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Posts posted by Eugene
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They still are (re westerly with colder incursions) into current 1-2 weeks. The prospect of change is later Dec. Just to be clear...
Yep that's how I see it so hopefully we can avoid anything too mild before the pattern possibly changes, unfortunately these heralded pattern changes are prone to further delays one after another and before you know it its late February when most are looking for Spring, can see another exceptionally warm year next year so my advice to coldies is enjoy today and anything in the next month or so before solar output increases.
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Pattern looking all too familiar with westerlies dominating, we've been lucky so far with PM dominating but it won't be long until our luck runs out and mild atlantic airmasses start pushing over us.
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I quite like the ECM tonight. It should bring some nice seasonal weather with frost and fog - always a good precursor to a cold outbreak. I still think the 120 to 144hr time period has some resolving to do. This applies to all the models as I don't believe any of them will have the south east diving atlantic trough modelled correctly. They will not get to grips with the track of this low until it comes in to the 72 to 96hr range. We can see by the JMA and GEM just how negative this low tilts can have major ramifications thereafter.
Yes those toasty 850's don't fool me either, would be as you say frosty with the risk of fog, deep cold is extremely rare this early anyway, may as well have faux cold for now and save the deep cold for late December onwards when it's of some use.
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GEM 00Z is fantastic with cold easterlies towards the end, UKMO 00Z at T+144 hrs has potential, just need the azores high to not ridge our way and that approaching atlantic low to dive southeastwards.
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Gfs is not the odd one out at all. Its been consistent with its output over the last few days, Ecm is a pile of rubbish at the moment and leading folks up the garden path to the Phantom beast from the east.....
Excellent post from Barry95 above with many good points, yes i agree GFS is the most consistent run and when it shows decent blocking charts in the next few days you will have to agree with it.
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Yes lets save the true cold for Christmas onwards, annoying how everyone thinks its mild in mid November with average temps and gloomy weather making it feel cold especially after an incredibly warm day just over two weeks ago, seems they have very short memories.
Wish we could have a sub zero CET for March but that has never been recorded.
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Sorry guys but i don't see a noteworthy cold spell just yet, the cold pool won't be extensive enough over europe and what we'll get is a surface chilly feed but nothing like December 2010, late December onwards is when bonechilling cold usually visits our shores.
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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif - Hot Plume of air next weekend on ECM 12Z, I can bet you though it will not feel anything like it looks
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Doesn't equate to anything special 2M temp wise on the ground though and dewpoints aren't anything toasty either, excellent runs for those who want a blocked setup, mild SSE'lys are usually a precursor to something special for cold weather fans down the line
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Quite on the warm side really
No near average 2M temps actually, might be on the mild side though at night if its cloudy, as Steve Murr says I think ECM 12Z OP is on it's own tonight, I think GFS will be nearer the mark with a mild aloft SE'ly feed for Thursday/Friday with maybe a cold front moving slowly E'wards on Friday/Saturday introducing clearer cooler air from the NW, could stall though and be mild/cloudy but definitely not record breaking or anything that mild(early to mid teens max's)
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GFS ensembles continue to slow a cooling trend final 3rd of Nov
Nice ECM on the way out - bit of something for everyone at 192
Yes certainly no sign of anywhere near record breaking 2M temps for end of next week on the GFS 12Z ensembles.
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So we have good consensus developing for next week
GEM now sniffing the ECM southerly. 850s of 14C into the south by the end of the week. Simply incredible for the time of year.
Even more surprising is that the ridge currently over Eastern Europe is relentlessly pushing west despite a big surge of cold air heading in the direction of Europe from the Canadian lobe of the tropospheric vortex. Something is afoot here.
So there is the potential for near record breaking warmth developing next weekend if we get the straight southerly flow from Africa with enough strength to stop an inversion developing. But it's after this point that I think most on here will be more interested in.
So whilst we play with high pressure, maybe we should be keeping an eye out to our east........
I did say that chance of cold will be from the east didn't I
There will be no record breaking warmth for the UK end of the week mark my words, UKMO and GFS don't agree with you at all, the chances are extremely slim and any light southerly will likely produce conditions like today, really give up on the direct southerly warmth until mid February onwards.
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I think model fatigue has set in a little earlier this season, hence the lack of posts. I am wondering what the ECM will throw up tonight. It's interesting that 2 or 3 days ago the ECM 12z threw out a very high pressure dominated run in it's later stages and this seems to be what the GFS seems to be picking up on now.
Model fatigue just a few weeks after we hit 23.6C, wow that is just incredible if you are correct
, I didn't even really start looking for cold until today and am raring to go about the next four months of model watching, the endless warm weather did fatigue me though -
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif
A very promising chart by UKMO at T+144 hrs IMHO, definitely not looking too shabby and definitely nothing to be despondent over, any cold shot is a slow evolving process, a light SE'ly drift is great to dry the countryside out and build cold across the continent.
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Stronger build of HP to our NW on GFS 12Z for end of next week, very promising developments and hopefully an end to the atlantic driven weather in the week ahead and beyond, seems Steve Murr was way on the ball as usual, think he'll be very optimistic over that run
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I would of thought today alot more people will be putting on their heating as it does feel like proper mid November today with stubborn stagnant fog/low cloud and feeling chilly.
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BBC again underestimated that's its mid November now and when the wind calms, fog/low cloud is very stubborn and the days can feel chilly like today, i noticed the ramping up the word mild on last nights forecasts, well 15 days ago it was miles warmer feeling, November isn't a freezing cold month even March is colder and Aprils average minima very similar.
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Yes nothing remotely cold in the models today in the foreseeable future, if we don't start seeing any remotely cold in the models by December 1st I will be calling this winter already over like I would of done in 1962 as faux cold isn't anything remotely cold.
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Speak for yourself damian, everyday this week here apart from Thursday has had long sunny intervals making it feel very springlike with butterflies around.
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God it feels like a big weight has been lifted off my shoulders this morning after all that horrid humid weather, so much fresher today, feels just fantastic, please don't ever come back humid weather, today is what it should be like all year round at the very least.
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I'm fed up with folk saying.. oh isn't it lovely weather for the time of year I hope it stays like this. I hope it doesn't. I don't get it. its very annoying.
Completely agree, i was delivering yellow pages thursday evening in a t shirt and was sweating buckets, cold weather is much better when you're active.
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UKMO and GEM looking like developing a high briefly over Scandinavia before it sinks into the high over Eastern Europe. For those who like rain then November could be your month as that Eastern European block looks quite robust. The UK as a consequence could be the final destination for a lot of rainfall coming in from the Western as low pressure sinks south east through the UK and towards Iberia. No real sign of a temperature anomaly either way. I suspect we will keep winds from the south west so average or slightly above would be my call. Rainfall looks potentially like being above average.
GFS 12Z is far from a wet run with winds not predominately from the SW for once, puzzled by your post TBH, like Steve Murr says definitely an improvement today for those looking for something not too wet and cool to cold, the week ahead doesn't look overly wet to me.
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Sorry if this has been repeated but has anybody got a list of Winter CET's that have been recorded with an OPI figure below -2?
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850's nothing to write home about next week and ECM 12Z not as good as some say with strengthening mild SW'ly winds at T+240 hrs, we look a million miles away from anything properly cold, the British Isles seems to attract mild 850's like there is no tomorrow.
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, I didn't even really start looking for cold until today and am raring to go about the next four months of model watching, the endless warm weather did fatigue me though 
Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Been cold and very dry here this december, i welcome some decent rainfall, those charts look unpleasantly humid to me something we've had almost all year so definately don't need more, i think the jet will flatten any strong heights to our south anyway like on JMA 12Z, i like that run.