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Everything posted by Eugene

  1. Down here in the south midlands it was a very humid summer almost throughout, the countryside was more overgrown than ever, this summer could beat even last summers high humidity/growth.
  2. Ummm very interestingly Gavin P's best analogue for this Summer is 1957's which had a very good first half followed by a poor second half, a summer of two halves, i think this summer will be similar but the halves could be reversed.
  3. Great post, exactly long range models as well as ensembles for just 10 days ahead find it difficult to pick up small scale features for the UK, there is an over reliance of basing expectations on long range models for our small patch of the northern hemisphere.
  4. Not much change on the models for the upcoming week, tuesday looks the warmest day with 23C/24C possible in the SE, cooler/unsettled further northwest though, thereafter a cooling trend with temps back into the teens with scattered showers though with a risk of a pulse of heavy rain moving into Central/SE England on Wednesday afternoon. Next weekend onwards we have the ominous looking slow moving/stalling low pressure system, high pressure to our northwest/northeast pattern, a pattern very hard to get out of.
  5. Summer 2007 Poor, Summer 2012 Poor, Summer 2017....??? You get the picture.
  6. GFS 12Z only showing highs of 16C/17C for tuesday in the midlands with a band of heavy rain moving in, this tropical air is just bringing in lots of damp cloudy weather, roll on the fresher clearer conditions later next week.
  7. Heatwave next week?...... Not if UKMO 12Z wants anything to do with it.
  8. Not much sign of anything that much above average temp wise on GFS 12Z, looks like the fine pleasant weather is slowly going to be eroded in the upcoming week with damp southwesterly weather moving in next weekend, let's hope the past weeks glorious cool easterly can make a return after a brief blip next weekend.
  9. Whatever Pete, you're still gonna struggle big time to see 20C mid week anyway.
  10. Temps look below average this coming week with some cool uppers being pulled down from the ENE, could feel very raw esp more northern/eastern areas by thursday in a fresh ENE'ly breeze, very disappointing runs for those looking for humid southeasterlies, lets not forget temps and dewpoints were at one point forecasted by the charts to be much higher.
  11. Alot of hopecasting in the MOD thread for warmth next week from the usual winter doom merchants who always tell us cold never wins.
  12. Yeah to let in those unsettled and cool atlantic westerlies.
  13. Forecasts for mid 20's mid next week are frankly nonsense and very misleading, current model output certainly does not support such high temps next week.
  14. Wow max temps of just 11C for parts next wednesday on GFS 12Z, quite the comedown from mid 20's maximums GFS was showing on tuesday, incredible run for extensive northerly blocking, karyo will be delirious.
  15. Could be alot of cloud cover left over from an atlantic frontal system from the southwest next tuesday/wednesday leaving miserable dank conditions, a freshening easterly breeze should start to clear it by thursday, max temps near average for early May (15C) .
  16. Sorry frosty but a warm spell for next week has never had any consistent model output, models have swung back and forth between cooler easterlies and warm southeasterlies for days, i keep a close eye on GFS ensembles and even when OP's were showing the possibility of mid 20's C a decent number of ensemble runs didn't, there has just never been any conclusive evidence of a very warm spell next week, i feel too many posters get carried away with warmth and let it cloud their judgement.
  17. Didn't see the forecast so i assume he was forecasting a very warm week next week which is absolutely crazy with even the UKMO runs never going for it and many other runs the day before showing cooler easterlies.
  18. I very much doubt this May will be westerly, looking very blocked and on the cool side.
  19. GFS 06Z ensembles seem very keen on a greenland high towards the end of it's timeframe, ECM 00Z T+240 hrs backs this up big time too.
  20. Looking like GFS 12Z is too progressive regarding atlantic systems making much inroads into england next weekend, UKMO 12Z/GEM 12Z go for a drier scenario with a strong scandy high blocking any atlantic intrusion leading to a very chilly easterly setting up early May on GEM 12Z, as it's almost May you have to favour a blocking scenario when westerlies are traditionally at their weakest.
  21. Could we see something similar this May?....Looking at GFS 06Z with continental block and cool air aloft with stalling low pressure we could see a chilly first half to May.
  22. Ignore the haters, you are as entitled to express your opinion as much as anybody, trust me the weather this Spring so far has suited alot of people not just yourself.
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