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Eugene

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Posts posted by Eugene


  1. Looking like we could be pulling in some fresher air from next weekend, today has been horribly humid. Can't wait for fresher air. Nice to see a Greenland high setup, the further into August we go into September we should see PM air become more prevalent to our northwest. Hopefully tapping into some of it come September, September can see the first proper cool days. 

     


  2. Posters in Model Discussion living on a different planet to the rest of us it seems, pretty bog standard Summer so far with one widespread hot day, Been overcast all week here, turning unsettled later this week. Feels like true Summer is slowly ebbing away, mid August onwards 30C+ is very hard to achieve away from the SE. Time is ticking. 


  3. 26 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    There were indications from yesterday's models that we may exchange the northerly then trough dominated pattern to something warmer and ridge related or indeed southerly related towards next weekend and into middle of the month. Today less than convinced this will happen, yes indications again a ridge will travel up from the south, but quickly through the UK and heading north, hence an easterly flow off a not particularly warm continent and N Sea could occur and with cut off low to the SE, chance heights may migrate NW again and we come under the auspices of further northerly episode. We may be about to see a very northerly/easterly May.  

    Nice to see an unbiased look at the upcoming possibilities. Great post. 👍


  4. On 11/04/2019 at 12:34, karyo said:

    It depends on the season, in the summertime I despise high pressure as it brings heat and boredom for me. It is then that I like low pressure from the Atlantic to bring some active weather.

    By wintertime though, I enjoy the clear frosty weather that a high can bring and hate the mobile west/southwesterly which just brings mild and frost free weather.

    I despise high pressure mid April onwards as it brings very boring weather like we have currently, roll on unsettled weather wed onwards with some convection hopefully, shows you how warm our climate has become though when 15C will feel cool in just bleedin' April. 😤


  5. 1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

    No warmth from the UKMO ( with maybe Ireland as an exception ) 

    Lucky to get North of 8c over England & 4-6c in the ESE

    ICON sees another pulse of deep cold hitting Northern Scandi at day 8 - about 6c colder than the last wave... (-20c isotherm)

    Yes and no warmth on the GEM 12Z either with a chilly easterly feed developing, think models are now moving towards this theme, orientation of the strong scandy high looks favourable for a chilly easterly developing, rarely warm this early in the Spring.


  6. 15 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

    So we have no northern blocking, a strong PV over Greenland, a strong Atlantic High hopefully being nice, so we can feed off the cold air scraps sent in a SE direction. Mixing in and out of milder air could be an issue? Also with -5 air above, 2m temps will be what 3-5 degrees? This sort of pattern seems the complete opposite of what we were hoping for post SSW. 

    Great post, 3C to 5C max's for most is what we're looking at, just below average and nothing out of the ordinary for mid to late January. It will mainly be sunny and dry for most. 


  7. Looks to be a very mild first half to winter, yes the second half will be cooler but that's not exactly difficult with how mild it's been. Of course strength of sun comes into play as we enter Feb so it won't feel that cold anyway unless it's cloudy or we pull in really cold continental uppers which is looking unlikely. 

    To me the peak period for winter is late November to late January when the days are at their shortest even then it's felt very pleasant in calm sunny conditions on the rare days it's been sunny. Been out in the countryside alot past month and the amount of insects i've seen is incredible. All enjoying the very mild conditions, you really notice how warm it's been this winter when being active.


  8. On 30/12/2018 at 01:23, Frost HoIIow said:

    Unfortunately that is true  - In my lifetime there has been more mild than cold Winters in the UK. We do not have a Continental climate. Whilst years ago we did have slightly more frequent colder spells that was it..... slightly. We had the odd big one 46/47...62/63 etc. You could easily add 2009/2010 into that as well as Nov/Dec 2010. But severe spells of Winter weather have always been hard to come by here in the UK - milder has dominated ....you can blame that big body of water to our west. But when we do get proper cold and snow it's all the more satisfying. We will get another big freeze.

    Well our Summers are definitely turning more continental like, when was the last truly cool UK summer? Think you have to go back all the way to 1987. The 80's were alot cooler than now and Winters alot more interesting. Even getting cold setups doesn't guarantee you proper cold anymore, the cold pooling just isn't as deep as it once was. All our seasons are getting warmer than normal now, we haven't had a cold Spring in along time either. This winter has been absolutely dreadful, seen many people out in t-shirts it's been that mild. At least things are cooling down now with colder air entering our slug high, only to what you should be getting though, nothing out of the ordinary and the form horse is a slow sinker.


  9. Happy with how my winter forecast is going, zonal December with limited cold. January should see the storms really revving up with a very active Atlantic. As ever we'll be looking for backend of winter cold in February. All in all very disappointing winter ahead for cold weather fans, next summer will be another scorcher as high pressure rules the roost again. Tbh the UK weather is very predictable and easy to predict now.

     


  10. LOL, Oh so typical just as we're approaching the coldest months the atlantic decides to awaken with high pressure over Scandinavia getting easily pushed back eastwards but never far enough to allow proper cold air from the northwest after 6 months of HP dominance. Going to be a long frustrating winter i feel. Of course from late April continental HP will have no trouble dominating, very grim climate ahead of us for next 50 years unless you like warm humid weather dominance. 


  11. Autumn is just a continuation of Summer nowadays, i expect a very Summer like Sept/Oct before a near average November which will feel cold due to the exceptionally hot May to Sept period.

    I expect a wet winter ahead with the atlantic gearing up, not overly mild but slightly above average with only transient cold spells.

    Next Summer will alot cooler than this one but that's to be expected after having the joint hottest Summer on record, still will feel warm and humid.


  12. Please let this god awful summer be over, charts look promising from next wednesday but we've been here so many times only for heat to return after a few average days. The summer weather since early May has been almost continuous even 1976/1995 didn't start that early, this summer is truly one of a kind, hope i never see one like it again, who wants to live in a furnace. 🤦‍♀️🔥😓


  13. 19 hours ago, Sky Full said:

    I am fortunate that I am able to spend much of my time outside which leaves me with a very positive view of long spells of warm/hot summery weather - I am not badly affected by it.  However, today I had to visit an office in Haverfordwest - a relatively modern building but typically for this area not fitted with AC.  The place was pretty much like a greenhouse with large windows only able to open 50% of their area at most, and no possibility of allowing a through draft due to the design of the individual offices.  I have huge sympathy for people working in these sorts of environments everywhere in the country, for factory workers, and those in old fashioned buildings not designed for hot weather.  This is not a new problem and I remember some occasions in the past where people I have worked with tried to use employment law to close businesses when temperatures exceeded legal maximums.  It's like severe snow closing rail lines and causing chaos on the roads - we are not set up for weather extremes and when they happen some people inevitably suffer.  However, try to enjoy the hot weather while it lasts - we could see four weeks of rain in August.... You never know!

    Well said, i think most on here who love this heat have cushy Air Conned office jobs, i feel sorry for those who don't, must be an absolute nightmare for them in this heat. Luckily nights have been unusually cool compared to most hot spells in the UK. Unfortunately looks to change, roll on winter, only have to put extra layers on to feel comfortable, there isn't much you can do in this heat, even portable air con units struggle in this heat.


  14. At long last a change to a more interesting fresher changeable pattern, ECMWF 12Z showing impressive atlantic cold pooling out west/northwest for second half of June. Things could get very chilly indeed esp at night if we tap into some of that and hopefully alot more clear blue sunny skies than these god-awful humid cloudy northeasterlies. 

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=192&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref


  15. What an absolute nightmare this endless humidity is and it's only May, no end in sight and not much sign of fresher weather. Something is seriously wrong with our climate, continious continental heat is not normal in July let alone in May. On course for record growth in the countryside beating even previous Summers, never seen it this overgrown in May. Of course by Winter the atlantic will wake up and we'll get fleeting blink or you'll miss it continental affairs like the past late winter/early spring period. Global warming is accelerating at an alarming rate. @karyo i know willl share my concerns.


  16. 49 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    The latest model output shows our weather very soon becoming more changeable / unsettled and significantly cooler, however, all that basically means is a return to how it should be in late april but it will just feel much better compared to what most of us have been suffering from this week..i.e..mid to high 20's celsius down to low to mid teens c! :)

    Good analysis Frosty. 👍🙂 


  17. 21 hours ago, markyo said:

    Thankfully cooler today and for the foreseeable,yesterday was just a reminder of how uncomfortable heat can be.

    Couldn't agree more, been a very pleasant past 6 months upto Wednesday then 3 sleepless nights with a horrid reminder of how uncomfortable high humidity can be, thankfully this kind of heat is very rare for the midlands this early and isn't usually reached until mid June onwards.

    May can be the last pleasant month until October, hopefully a northerly dominated May is on the cards. 👍🙂 

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