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Eugene

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Everything posted by Eugene

  1. Wednesday looks a very chilly day for late April, heavy showers turning wintry esp on higher ground midlands northwards, even snow starved southerners could see wet flakes of snow esp late afternoon\early evening when we should see sharp drops in temperature, exposed higher parts combined with wind chill factor could feel very raw indeed, this is a direct arctic sourced northerly folks, GEM 12Z is a thing of beauty, greenland/mid atlantic block and winds from a northerly quarter right til the end.
  2. Wow my heating hasn't come on for a long time, it's hardly been that cold has it with temps mainly in double figures by day and no harsh frosts for over a month.
  3. GFS 12Z intensifies the greenland high mid next week compared to GFS 06Z, look for some wintry surprises popping up as we reach that timeframe, a collapsing high then allowing a cool and unsettled pattern to take hold looks likely, off topic today was lovely with crisp air and warm sunshine but not overbearing like mid summer, look out for frost tonight south midlands southwards.
  4. Long term averages show snowfall in April to be very similar to November, snowfall isn't that uncommon for northern britain even in May, models all seem to show a cold last week to April with greenland/mid atlantic blocking.
  5. GFS 18Z OP finally fully on board frosty with the retrogression theme.
  6. Looks like GFS 12Z is moving towards ECM with high pressure retrogressing northwestwards, cool and unsettled last week of April seems likely.
  7. Lets hope it's right frosty, don't think active weather fans could take more HP boredom after what has seemed like it has lasted an eternity, if ECM is wrong the model after many failed attempts recently has some serious issues.
  8. Another warm, cloudy and humid benign summer with no weather extremes, that's how boring our climate has become.
  9. Been a much cooler week since Sunday's taste of Summer, as we go into Easter weekend remaining on the chilly side with limited sunshine, tuesday onwards it looks like we'll be picking up some arctic air from the northeast which should give cool clearer days and the increasing risk of night air frost, ECM/GEM 12Z showing some very impressive northerly height rises, all in all not a bad outlook.
  10. It's been so warm for early April today esp for central/east midlands that even average temps are going to feel much colder, a 10C temperature drop by tomorrow even higher for the east/se. Having trouble with the charts on wetterzentrale but just checked meteociel and it looks like northern britain could see some of the white stuff by Easter Monday April 17th, looks like a northerly sourced spell of weather for a few weeks at least, don't mind colder weather, keeps a lid on those loud anti social types.
  11. A temp drop of around 10C from Monday is a pretty big drop and will be a shock to the system for most people, a much cooler week ahead, looks like some extensive northerly blocking setting itself up for the rest of April, this doesn't guarantee cold but it definately increases the chances, there is no sign of a plume in the very deep depths of GFS as you say.
  12. Lovely warm sunny days followed by lovely colder weather with some nice crisp frosty mornings, bring it on.
  13. Probably didn't lie IYBY even in Jan 1963.
  14. Great to see the persistent trend for high pressure to retrogress to our northwest later in the week/next weekend onwards, been showing up for days on GFS OP's with this mornings ECM 00Z picking it up, would be very foolish to dismiss this trend just because it's not what you want in April, previous history has shown lots of times Northerly outbreaks occurring in mid April after a fine settled first week, whether thats cold and wintry or just cool and dull.
  15. Interesting week to come with colder more brighter conditions with night frost and the risk of wintry showers taking over before a chilly easterly for midlands/south next weekend with more cloud cover, nice change from this mild dross with temps not varying much between day & night.
  16. Potential for heavy snow over the cotswolds/peak district next thursday on GFS 12Z.
  17. GFS 12Z showing a cold ENE'ly next weekend into the following week.
  18. Completely agree, HP is just giving us mainly cloudy skies like it did today, time for something alot more interesting, don't get why people love temps around 14C when you can get those kind of temps anytime of year in the UK, best to take advantage of cold arctic airmasses over greenland before they retreat for the summer, waiting until November for another cold spell when March on average is the fourth coldest month of the year is depressing, not sure why some are happy with ECM 12Z, latter stages would just bring dull chilly days, easterlies aren't great in Spring with a cold North Sea even if its above average.
  19. This is a rant thread so here it goes, What an absolute joke the MOD thread has become lately, we are still at a stage where wintry weather is still very possible yet the same people who were moaning about anticyclonic weather are now celebrating a dreadful cloudfest HP cell with absolutely no interesting diurnal temperature ranges at all, vile model output currently with no interesting weather at all.
  20. GFS 12Z showing a nice arctic northwesterly for a few days later next week , beforehand just more mild cloudy rubbish i'm afraid with rain at times.
  21. Nice to see any warm up very brief now for mid next week before cooling down nicely next friday onwards, looking like we could see some wintry showers and night frost for mid to late March. GFS 18Z building heights strongly over greenland just like GEM 12Z and a direct arctic northerly, lets hope this trend continues.
  22. Summer in the UK doesn't really get going until mid June onwards, long long wait for your blistering heatwave if at all.
  23. No surprise really as GFS 12Z OP was a big warm outlier on the GFS 12Z ensembles for later next week.
  24. So true, find it strange how some feel March 1st means a sudden switch to Spring warmth, March can be a very chilly disturbed month, looks to me like a rather cold unsettled first half to March with temps around average at best.
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