Met4Cast

Don't worry - Some of us South of the Estuary are still seeing nothing but heavy rain too

Rain update: Raining

Well if Steve only has sleet at 500ft then I'm not going to bother looking out the window every 2 minutes at just 97 feet. I'll up it to every 15 minutes and re-access in an hours time

So sleet?

Nothing but rain here in Strood still

Darn.. sorry, I left the snow shield running! I've turned it off, we should start to see things turning to snow more widely now!

My post was a joke..

Can we get a puddle depth analysis across the region please

Raining here in N Kent just incase there are any ducks reading..

The forecast for the past two days "Rain will turn to snow" People on this forum WHY IS IT RAINING YOU SAID IT WOULD SNOW WAHH

Did people really expect it to be all snow right of the bat? Rain > Snow event was always, always looking like the way it was going. Many areas also now starting to report rain is turning to snow.. largely as expected. 8/9pm is when we should see more widespread reports of snow not only to higher ground but to lower levels, too. 1-3cm still widely expected by me, 5cm over higher peaks of the region. Coastal regions? Who knows, take what you can get I suppose..

Oops, yes. Thursday* Sod it

From there it pivots and slides away South-Eastwards

ECM is one hell of an upgrade for us on Tuesday, couldn't track more perfectly with the heaviest stuff slap bang over us!

People really need to stop using the ultra low res GFS PPN charts, they show the PPN far more North than the high resolution charts do.. FYI cropping into the UK from a low res chart doesn't make it hi-res..

Did a quick mockup of possible solutions re: Thursdays system Based on a blend of all models including the GFS ensembles. UKMO/ECM/ blend suggests a more central risk (scenario 1) whilst ICON/ARPEGE suggests a more Southerly central risk (scenario 2) which leaves GFS + GEFS further North as per scenario 3, though we know how the GFS likes to massively over-do Northerly extent.

The fact you're seeing sleety rain already is perhaps a good sign given the less cold air hasn't moved away yet

I'm personally favouring UKMO/GFSP/ECM blend - ICON/APEGE broadly in line too with the Northern extent, only real odd ball is the GFS which continues to send the front way way North of every other model, though we saw it do the same thing consistently with todays front too. Far SE likely to see a rain > snow > rain event as you say, I think East Anglia/North London the sweet spot for our area, Essex/North Kent possibly holding onto the snow though perhaps wetter down to lower ground especially towards the back edge. EDIT: Thought I was in the regional thread, apologies for the IMBY

This is about the Northern extent for Thursdays snow from the ECM 6z run Rain across the SW turning to snow North and East of say Bristol

I shouldn't but! ECM 06z run from this morning showing Thursdays snow risk

The probability map may not have been based on the UKMO model - ECM was further North re: snow line

We'd want the UKMO to have nailed the track of Thursdays system for the best opportunity for this region (Thurs 6pm and Midnight Friday) ECM a little further North, GFS much further North.

UKMO Model 6pm Thursday Midnight Thursday/Friday Probability of accumulations between Thurs 12pm and Fri 12pm

Met office are live on Facebook right now

I wonder where the confidence is coming from. Some support for the Siberian high to back West but they are beyond impossible to forecast especially at range. Their extended outlook has consistently gone for "cold or very cold" but has kept being pushed back and back, so I'm personally not convinced.