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Met4Cast

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Met4Cast last won the day on December 13 2018

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About Met4Cast

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    Dan

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    Male
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    Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences
    Snow, Thunderstorms,

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  1. Perhaps *some* scope for elevated convection later this afternoon but the risk of home grown storms today really is rather low, the atmosphere is just too capped. Our best bet is for storms building across France to move northwards but as this stand a huge majority of models send the storms east of the UK.
  2. Cool. I didn't want a storm today anyway, I'm glad it missed me.
  3. I think he meant in terms of thunderstorms developing somewhere in the UK day after day, rather then the specific locations seeing the storms.
  4. May as well throw my risk graphic into the mix NW areas once again could hit the jackpot today, though a wider risk of storms elsewhere across the UK compared with the previous few days. What a run this is!
  5. More footage, this time from the legend that is Simon King
  6. Just shared a video someone sent me on Twitter. Definitely some fairly large hail there
  7. Look at what's going on over Ireland right now! I don't think I've seen rainfall rates that high before, it's basically off the scale! Gorgeous overshooting top too.
  8. Looks like we've seen a tornado! Several reports of funnel clouds from various different places in the NW in the last hour too.
  9. Do you have access to the doppler radars? Or are you stuck with the same non-doppler radar we all use too?
  10. Yeah I think this is most likely the reason - I've never heard of elevated storms looking different on radars compared with surface based storms either.
  11. For what it's worth, here's mine and Bens current thinking for tomorrow Bulk of the instability will be across north Wales & NW Mids coinciding with peak daytime diurnal heating. Ascent profiles look good with cloud tops up to roughly 30,000 feet, DLS is supportive of multicellular storms though a little low for supercellular but definitely wouldn't want to rule the risk out entirely, weak LLS suggest the tornado risk is rather low 5<% but the risk of funnel clouds is a little higher. Storms generally of the "pulse' variety but wouldn't be surprised to see some of these upscaling and becoming locally severe in nature, torrential rain, gusty winds, high rainfall rates. Elsewhere there's a generalised broad risk of torrential downpours/thundery showers, particularly across CS England into SW England during the late afternoon > evening period. Still some uncertainty re: timing of storm initiation.
  12. AROME still develops storms though perhaps not as widely as previously expected. The NMM produces very little but largely because it sends an MCS through East Anglia and into the Midlands tonight meaning there's a lot more cloud around during the day tomorrow. I think the NMM can probably be disregarded for the above frame alone.. completely out of kilter with all other models.
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