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Met4Cast

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Met4Cast last won the day on December 13 2018

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About Met4Cast

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    Dan

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    Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences
    Snow, Thunderstorms,

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  1. It’s game over. The latest GLOSEA run not only reduces the extent of weakening in early Feb but shows no sustained weakening whatsoever. GEFS have backed away from an SSW (unsurprisingly, strong negative bias beyond day 10) & the GFS is suggesting a return to an above average strength u-wind. Even if we see an SSW in late February (unlikely) it’ll be far too late for any real impact taking into account lag time. No help from the vortex this winter. We’ll just have to hope for some favourable trop led patterns mid-late Feb. The first half looks distinctly zonal.
  2. Doubt it. There's going to be a warming but a full reversal looks unlikely, I think the best we can hope for is u-wind strength to be a little bit below average for the time of year. What impacts (if any) that has on overall weather patterns remains to be seen. The vortex has been a worthy opponent this winter & it seems even a warming isn't going to worry it too much.
  3. The disagreement between ECM/GFS begins as early as Monday. GFS is much sharper with the energy digging further south and as a result we get a more cold air across the UK, ECM less sharp and we see less cold air reaching our shores. UKMO looks likely to be more of a middle ground scenario to me. Low lying areas in the south are going to be disappointed but if you live above 200m Midlands northwards then mid-late next week is likely to be incredibly interesting for you.
  4. To be fair, it's GP, he's basically the king of sub-seasonal weather forecasting & mid-long range teleconnections. If Dave from Kent was writing off the first part of winter then the response would be uncalled for.
  5. EXCITING!! WXCHARTS WWW.WXCHARTS.COM A new weather forecast model data viewer for Europe and North America. Clickable forecast and ensemble plots, hourly GFS, ECMWF, ARPEGE and GEFS plots WX Charts have added new ECMWF data which includes Precip type, 850hPa temperatures, Snow Depth & Wind Gusts! This is an absolute fantastic new rescource we didn't really have access to before!
  6. I believe he's from the Netherlands and doesn't speak English all that well, I suspect that's mainly the reason for the lack of explanation.
  7. I agree - The displacement to the Asian/Siberian side is a good thing for us, especially as there are signs the trop vortex will be following suit, this should encourage height rises to our NE mid December onwards
  8. Worth noting the -VE bias on the GEFS though, this isn’t the first time they’ve shown this only to revert to less extreme of a deceleration as the time approaches. GFS/ECM are a much better guide & have been far more accurate so far this season. Wouldn’t get excited until we see some notable weakening showing from the GFS.
  9. This feature next weekend is starting to get my interest. The latest GFS keeps it to the south of the UK but a little further north and with a little more disruption it could bring some interest in terms of snowfall. Light years away in terms of forecasting of course, but certainly something to watch as the week progresses!
  10. A slight shift westwards at 138 on the 6z GFS. Not quite good enough in terms of vertical convection but it's closer than the 00z was. Ideally we want to see that low head northwards up the western side of Greenland.
  11. The mean is tantalisingly close to a major SSW on the latest run. Good to finally see GEFS/GFS in agreement at last too & quite a shift within the ensembles from the previous few runs which seemed to back away from the idea of a reversal somewhat. Still a long way to go of course, but that's certainly the most promising sign yet of an SSW. A trop/strat coupling now looks likely as we go through the first week of December lending some credence to the idea that this up-coming cold spell will be relatively short lived before a more mobile pattern takes over. Beyond that it's all eyes on the upper stratosphere and whether we can get an SSW or not, I'm still calling it for mid-late December so it's good to see models beginning to show that way of thinking too!
  12. It really is a shame that it isn't mid January This would be one of the best patterns you could have in terms of delivering widespread, significant snowfall across large parts of the UK. Sadly, the air just isn't cold enough/in the right place for us to tap into. Snow on northern hills certainly possible & it'll feel cold everywhere but I'm doubtful it'll be anymore than that, though could get more interesting if the shift southwards continues. That's quite some trough disruption out in the Atlantic!
  13. The colder option is in the minority cluster on the EPS with the largest cluster supporting the return of an Atlantic, westerly regime.
  14. All to play for.. Anyone not seeing the move away from a decent shot at cold must be looking at entirely different model runs. Any cold spell continues to look brief & widespread snow certainly isn't in the forecast at this stage. ENS support a +NAO pattern in the mid-extended range, as do the GEFS.
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