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Danny*

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Danny* last won the day on November 9 2010

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    Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
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    Snow, Thunderstorms,

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  1. Well.. the Aperge is interested in countrywide snowfall on Sunday Much more extensive than other models it has to be said, so largely on it's own for now.
  2. The Aperge is of interest for Sunday, though the system is much further South compared to other models
  3. Struggling to see why a warning is warrented for our region - A few light flurries at best
  4. Given how utterly quiet it is in here, I'm assuming not a lot of interest is falling from "the blob". It's just to the South of me
  5. I for one aren't too excited about an Easterly, it feels like we've been chasing this Easterly since about Mid-December. Chance of a few snow showers through this afternoon, very much a radar watching day for us down here. Clouds have that "snow like" tinge to them, they're just not thick enough at the moment to produce anything.
  6. Dammit I wasn't expecting to feel feelings tonight on here, lovely message! I'm personally hoping the low tracks another couple of hundred miles South and brings the South-East into the snow risk.. I can't see it tracking any further South than the South-Midlands but somewhere is going to see some very strong winds whilst other areas see heavy snow. Definitely interesting model watching.
  7. Any news on the iOS app release? Been over a month since the release was "imminent"
  8. It's almost like the weather has been trying but failing to get cold air to the UK all winter and it's just gone "sod it, lets do it the hard way then"
  9. A general sign that out "cold spell" (meh, if you live in the South) is going to end is cold air flooding across the Eastern Seaboard, this only serves to power up the jet and blast the Atlantic towards the UK. Something that seems to have become a consistent feature in winters over the last few years. If you live in the North and West you'll do well out of this setup. If you live say, South of the M4 then hopefully rain and gales are your thing, because it looks like we'll be seeing plenty of that down here. Cracking end to the GFS with that Easterly but as yet, very little support for it anywhere other than the GFS Det, given the last "Easterly" I wouldn't pin too much hope on that one materialising. Having said all that, I'm off to look at houses, I'm fed up of living in the South now.
  10. North-Westerlies for our region are about as useful as a Southerly direct from Africa for getting snow here. I guess we might see the odd shower but, mostly cloudy, cold and breezy. Lovely.. No excitement whatsoever for me in this upcoming "cold spell"
  11. Well - The only change in the runs since I posted this is further movement towards the cold zonal/low pressure moving SEwards across the country and a further step away from the bitter, convective Easterly scenario. The Easterly was never really showing on the models other than in a few rouge op runs at times, this can't really go down as a "fail" because the Easterly was quite literally just invented on this forum, which I find rather strange. It'll still be cold with snow primarily in the North and West but perhaps further South and East at times too, weird to see such cold air coming from the Atlantic.
  12. Looks right in line with the ensemble means and EPS means to me..
  13. Seems to be a spate of wannabe mods on here tonight. Anyway - ECM, UKMO and to an extent GFS ops still going for blocking but still little sign of any significant cold aside from the UKMO in FI which has the cold air fairly close to us. ECM whilst synoptically looks good, probably wouldn't produce anything away from the Northern hills. I'm still really struggling to see where this bitter Easterly is going to come from, despite the small corrections on the OPs, there still isn't that much supporting it.
  14. The -12c temperature are on a single deterministic run on a single model, It's hardly a surprise the Met isn't jumping over themselves with forecasting an Easterly. The most likely outcome when taking all the ensembles/outputs from the last few days and today remains that of cold zonal, not bitter cold Easterly winds.
  15. Perhaps we should rename the thread "Wishing Well" because some people are trying to wish this thing into existence. I'm in the "miserable git" club at the moment. And here's my reasoning. The ECM clusters show little support for a sustained, cold Easterly. In fact, there's such a large range of solutions that it's difficult to pin-point any particular outcome but the EPS seemingly leaning more towards low pressure dominated (though some more zonal than others) rather than a cold, convective Easterly. ECM mean isn't too bad, but more cold zonal than Easterly. The GFS mean singing a similar tune So we have two ensemble suites going for cold zonal with weaker heights to our North-East than the ops currently show. A look at the ensemble charts show massive spread in the mid-long term range with not a huge amount of support for anything particularly bitter. So going forward? Yes it will turn colder with both ensembles suites representing that change. Yes, the ops are pointing towards an Easterly (though, none of them are actually showing one yet, just a trend towards stronger heights in the NE that currently don't depict freezing weather as some on here seem to be suggesting) As I see it, cold zonal looks like the most likely outcome. We saw just a few days ago how the ops can massively overestimate blocking and give us bitter cold synoptics only for them to spectacularly back away from them. Are the ops/means/ens underestimating the Scandi block? Probably, and I expect we'll see it become a bit more robust within the models suite, but that still doesn't necessarily lead to bitter cold Easterlies. People are talking like it's a done deal, but I'm struggling to see widespread support for that in the ensembles. Easterlies are the holy grail here so I'd love for the enthusiastic members to be right but the models currently aren't suggestive of that.
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