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Daniel Smith

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Daniel Smith last won the day on November 16

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About Daniel Smith

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    Dan

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  • Location
    Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences
    Snow, Thunderstorms,

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  1. ECM has us under an Easterly flow out to T120, good heights & trough disruption taking place, great start!
  2. Perhaps this thread will be better considering you seem hell bent on only ever posting the worst looking charts in terms of UK cold NAVGEM is perhaps the worst performing model currently on the planet so not entirely worried about what its showing. Given the UKMO's solid consistency, the GFS/GEFS moving towards the undercut option and the ECM also showing the undercut, GFS(P) is currently largely out on it's own for the time being. I wish we could see it's ensembles, could be the warmest one out of the bunch.
  3. We really couldn't ask to be in a better place at the beginning of winter than where we are now. Incredible Scandi blocking/moving to Greenland with continued warm pulses of WAA into the Arctic making things favourable for more blocking and more WAA = it becomes a self sustained pattern. MJO moving into phase 8 which for December is suggestive of Northern blocking and then when you take into account the increased chance of blocking with low solar activity/low sea ice and combine that with a weak ENSO not overriding any other signals, we've basically hit the jackpot. I see no real Atlantic threat going forward, the atmosphere is primed for blocking to continue probably well into December, we then have the possibility of an SSW which could cause a split/displacement in the Vortex and bam, you've got December/January, 2 months of potential almost continuous below average temps/snow. Blocking doesn't = cold of course so we need to be cautious there, but things are looking fantastic. Cold this week, perhaps slightly less cold in the South by the weekend but with models agreeing on the slider/undercut of the low, don't be surprised to see further upgrades as things trickle from FI into the reliable. This isn't currently about "will it snow here, there or anywhere" for me, it's about the bigger pattern and going forward it looks fantastic!
  4. Much, much better from the GFS. Major trough disruption, sharper flow across Scandi and lower heights to the S of the UK, fantastic!
  5. Came here to say that exact same thing, it’s utterly horrible out there!
  6. Yesterday I had a conversation with someone on here (can’t remember who) and they stated the GEFS were “solid” on no cold. Well.. One day later and they’re once again not solid on anything. Nice clutering on the cold side but probably about an equal number on the warmer side, too. Steps towards a better outcome across the board today.
  7. Icy rain here on and off - Not quite sleet, not quite hail, not entirely sure what the heck it was
  8. Everything is a good 300-400 miles South on this run compared to the earlier run, that’s exactly the trend me want to see continuing! 6z 12z
  9. Doesn’t look very displaced to me? Blocking increasing, cold end to the run incoming. Fantastic run from the GFS and now more inline with the other models, still key differences at 144 to be ironed out, however.
  10. The trend within the EPS is to bring up less cold air from the South in the 7-10 day range, keeping this largely in situ with Northern areas staying under the colder air out until day 15 The extended output is largely dependent on what happens days 5-7 Cluster 1 (54%) is with the Det run, high moves too far NW and we see low pressure influence from the S/SW. Cluster 2 (45%) keeps high pressure around Greenland/Iceland, low pressure goes S = colder Until days 5-7 is resolved, the extended can't be taken seriously, it'd be pure luck if it calls it correct at this point. All models highly volatile beyond day 7, high uncertainty/low confidence in any outcome. CR/OP in the same cluster would give credence to lean towards that for the time being, GEFS mean similar to EC Cluster 1, so more support for the less cold solution at this time. But again - Models do struggle when it comes to resolving energy going underneath high pressure so major flips can't be discounted. Less cold late this week/weekend air into the South at least seems odds on Small clustering of colder solutions thereafter to end the month/go into Dec but with a wide spread, little confidence either way.
  11. Better trough disruption out to 152hrs The high has moved a little too far North-Westwards though, with no forcing on the low pressure system it'll push through the UK rather than go to the South - Somewhat similar to this mornings ECM
  12. Anyway. 6z is out to 126 and we're already seeing some subtle improvements, heights a little lower across Europe (can't seem to upload images for some reason so I'll have to link)
  13. Extended EPS day 10-15 indicative of low pressure to the South-West with a weak signal for heights to remain across Greenland, though looks too far North for anything meaningful, the mean looks quite mild. Day 5-7, the time period we're concerned with shows a good signal for low pressure to be underneath the block
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