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Daniel Smith

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Daniel Smith last won the day on November 9 2010

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About Daniel Smith

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    Dan

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    Male
  • Location
    Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences
    Snow, Thunderstorms,

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  1. I'm fully prepared to be off of work by Wednesday next week
  2. Do you guys want -15c uppers and have it fairly dry or shortwaves/fronts moving across bringing widespread snowfall but uppers are a little more moderated? I know which one I would prefer, but some people in here don't seem to be able to make up their minds. Incredible 18z run yet again, no change to the broad theme, bitterly cold, risk of widespread/significant snowfall next week. Lovely!
  3. Ugh, yeah on second thoughts. Massive Scandinavian high, bitterly cold air into the UK, horrible, rubbish run this. Yuck. Bin it. DISCLAIMER: Only follow the above advice if it's raging mild and zonal you're after. If it's bitter cold and snow, ignore.
  4. Put your helmets on guys, the toys are coming! The GFS is a little further South/slower with the evolution, yeah. But take 30 seconds and look at this chart, just look at it. It's a beauty, cold air is heading towards the UK. Just a variation of the theme, that's all. Stop analysing every micro detail.
  5. Aside from the massive great trough in the North Sea moving into Eastern parts?
  6. Ahh okay so one rule for mods, one rule for everyone else, gotcha! Can we just take a moment to appreciate this chart at T48hrs? We've watched these charts come from the depths of FI to the reliable timeframe, how often can you say that happens?
  7. ICON looking pretty solid, bit weird how everything sortof just stops for a bit though, good start to the 18z runs. I don't think we need to worry it's all pretty much smooth sailing into this cold now
  8. So, before the 18z a quick one from me, let me just climb over this tower of Net Weather toys. Right. GFS is further South? The OP is, sure. But the ensemble mean is further North than the OP and the OP is on the milder side of the ensembles in the extended. There is a general upward trend in the ensembles but the mean stays below -5 until the 5th and given the GFS tendency to be over progressive with breakdowns I don't think we really need to worry too much about that. ECM OP and mean was absolutely solid and has been the best guidance in the mid-term for this cold spell, the GFS has not. UKMO further South similar to the GFS and whilst that is a worry, given the lack of support from the EPS I think we can be confident of a backtrack here, the UKMO hasn't really covered itself in glory recently, either. My point is, even though I generally hate ensembles they are the best guide in these circumstances. The secondary warming in the Stratosphere is probably causing some problems with the models again. Eveything is fine. The cold air arrives Sunday night along with snow showers into the East/South-East. Now if we could stop throwing the toys out at the drop of a single OP run, this place might be bearable.
  9. Exactly this. A secondary warming has probably increased Shannon Entropy again. Think back to how all over the place they were last week. Stick with the ensemble means & clusters in these situations, it offers best guidance. EPS > GEFS Ignore PPN charts or if you absolutely must look at them at this range, stick with the APERGE, GFS PPN charts are useless even at T24. Coldest spell for a few years is all but confirmed, details wrt snow/timing/depth of cold remain uncertain but broad pattern is very good.
  10. Yup, exactly! Think of it as us having insider information and in due course, that'll be released to a wider audience.
  11. They're talking about cold weather and the risk of snow, they are not calling feet of snow or widespread blizzards, BBC are talking about the cold weather next week, they're just not going into detail which I think is about right.
  12. Re: BBC/Met Office Forecasts. 60 million people in the UK rely on them. Business rely on them for normal running etc.. they absolutely cannot start talking about feet of snow this far out for a couple of reasons. 1. It'll cause unnecessary panic to the elderly 2. If it doesn't happen, it ruins their reputation and are less likely to be believed. This is shaping up to what could be quite a serious weather event, the BBC and Met Office are not just going to willy nilly ramp it up when the snow lets face it is still almost a week away. Whilst it'd be nice for us weather folk for BBC forecasts to show raging blizzards and feet of snow, that's just not the reality and they have to be sensible about it. Come Thursday, I suspect they'll be talking about it more seriously, at the moment it's just too early.
  13. Really? People are worrying about "less cold uppers" up to a staggeringly warm -7c? Come on people, I mean seriously! -7c uppers is more than enough to produce snowfall. The ECM is an absolute snowfest but just about the entire country with some very significant snowfalls for many. We're getting there, we're getting close, stop worrying and holding onto every single model run as if it's the truth. The Easterly begins at 42hrs.
  14. The mean is further North than the OP run was, Can we stop throwing the toys around, now? Even if the OP came off exactly as modelled it'd still be pretty damn notable.
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