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Daniel Smith

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Daniel Smith last won the day on December 13 2018

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About Daniel Smith

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    Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
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    Snow, Thunderstorms,

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  1. Still not seeing anything to convince me of HLB from the models this morning from the EPS. Clusters at day 6 tending to be fairly supportive of the pattern we've become used to, high pressure broadly out West allowing low pressure systems to sink Southwards across the UK Extended clustering while there are some HLB clusters there, aren't screaming for it at the moment The closest to HLB the EPS mean can manage is this, whilst still of course a cold pattern isn't really gunning for deep cold proper The positive is the 8-10 anomalies are broadly in agreement between EC/GFS Going forward good support from the EPS London for temperatures below 5c so surface conditions will certainly be cold, but I'm not seeing a "Beast from the East" style cold spell with ample Northern Blocking at the moment Early February however is looking interesting. MJO phasing becomes more favourable moving into phase 7 and I suspect onto phase 8 beyond that seemingly coinciding with the SSW downwelling into the Troposphere we should start to see some very, very good charts coming out at the end of the runs in the next week or so, though expect model volatility to shoot right back up again when these things come together. Lots to be positive about. Still hunting for that deep snow..
  2. GFS looks very much on it's own regarding Saturdays potential snowfall, no other model is really interested. Given the GFS took up until 12 hours before realising there would be little back edge snow on Monday nights front, I think we may as well just bin the PPN charts from that model
  3. Anyone in Margate? Whats falling? Radar looks like you’re getting buried
  4. The 18z Op had -15c uppers over us, I'm not surprised it's a huge outlier! That's one hell of a cross polar flow on the gfsp, the Strat split finally splitting the Trop Vortex too!
  5. Oh boy.. here we go again! That is one damn impressive Easterly!
  6. I think the bigger concern will be ice rather than any snow that falls
  7. A few of the 6z models certainly showing a more pronounced risk of something a little more organised for the South-East this evening/tonight As the low clears to the South-East the PPN wraps around and comes down from the NE skimming EA and crossing the SE corner. It hasn't shown up on previous model runs so very likely to be a nowcast situation. A surprise 1-2cm for a couple of lucky spots?
  8. ICON (I know) has a shallow low pressure feature running Southwards in the North-Sea on Saturday Could see a band of rain/sleet/snow sinking Southwards across the country. We might not be in a period of sustained bitter cold but there certainly isn't going to be a lack of snow possibilities in the next week or two
  9. That cold cluster this weekend has caught my attention..
  10. It's more that they're so low resolution that a few snow flurries looks like a full frontal band of heavy snowfall, not to mention how utterly inaccurate the GFS is when it comes to general PPN, let alone snowfall
  11. I really wish those GFS snow charts were hidden behind a paywall..
  12. I think that's expected at this point - Rinse and repeat type pattern until we see more sustainable height rises, probably sometime early February.
  13. Better GFS with the Northerly coming in much faster compared with the 6z Riding up to Greenland forcing the second low back NW and into the Greenland shredder
  14. Meto update STILL going for North-Easterlies later in the week.. EDIT: it hasn't actually updated yet, false alarm