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Daniel Smith

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Daniel Smith last won the day on November 9 2010

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About Daniel Smith

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    Dan

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  • Location
    Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences
    Snow, Thunderstorms,

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  1. As the storms drift out into the Atlantic and over warmer waters there’s the potentiail for them to form into depressions/tropical storms/eventuially hurricanes, so worth keeping an eye on things as they can go on to affect our weather here.
  2. Daniel Smith

    New V7 Satellite

    Is there anyway to get the outline of the UK when looking at the new Sat image? I love it, but you can't see the UK whatsoever which kind of ruins it, you have no real way of knowing where you're actually looking, also why is it so blurry even at modest zooms?
  3. Low solar activity seems to increase the extremes in the UK. Very wet mild winters, very cold snowy winters are all things that happen during solar minimums. I think it has a bigger effect on the jet stream, the jet stream becomes more likely to get “stuck” so we see the same type of weather repeating, this summer being a good example. If we get stuck on the cold side of the jet, fun and games in the snow. If we get stuck on the milder side, fun and games in the floods.
  4. Despite the up/downs/inconsistency of the OP runs this past day or two the ensembles are rather telling. Hot conditions this weekend lasting into early next week look more likely than not to be replaced by average (below average in the North) temperatures with low pressure having more of an influence over high pressure. Still a way out in terms of reliability but I think the broad trend is strengthening. GFS goes almost full autumnal with the 06z I go on holiday to Devon for 2 weeks on Saturday, so seeing charts like this for me wasn't really a surprise haha
  5. Pretty sure someone said that exact same thing yesterday before someone jumped on them about it There’s some impressive Northern blocking going on towards the end of the ECM this morning. “if only it were winter” springs to mind.
  6. I’m not sure where the surprise that charts have backed away from heat has come from? It never really had a whole lot of support on any of the ensemble suites and they never showed heat being sustained for more than a few days. It’s not going to be washout by any means, but certainly no “heatwave” either.
  7. Yet again you’re choosing to ignore what i’ve actually said. Since when were the Met Office infalluable? Here’s what I actually said, for a third time. 1. No sustained heat 2. Periods of transient heat interspersed with periods of cooler (average) weather. Meaning - Periods of hot weather are likely to be shortlived but will be a reoccuring theme. Huh, kinda sounds like what the Met Office has said, doesn’t?
  8. Really? Low pressure never far away on the GFS or the ECM, GFS runs a low pressure system right across Southern England by the middle of next week. All conjecture at this stage, of course. But as usual, people in this thread only seeing what they want to see. My point stands. No sustained heat on the models other than briefly hot this weekend.
  9. Where did I say it wouldn’t be turning hot at the end of the week and into the weekend? In fact I specifcally stated that it would be, maybe you’re the one that’s struggling to read things? I said I don’t see any “sustained” heat. A couple of days and a weekend of hot weather isn’t what I’d call “sustained” but perhaps you have a different definition of the word. Ensembles pretty much agree on no sustained “hot” weather but more rather, a mixed bag.
  10. I can’t really see any sustained heat showing on any models - Looks to me a period of transient heat late this week/into the weekend before turning cooler again with a further chance of rain as low pressure systems return. We’re probably looking at a period of transient weather as a whole, briefly hot followed by cooler with some rain, certainly nothing suggesting a sustained heatwave nor sustained unsettled weather.
  11. Possible funnel cloud/tornado?
  12. The sun being back out is a good thing, it'll get the surfacing heating going again. Frontal forcing is very slowly working Eastwards, the risk will only increase in the coming hours especially with the storm coming out of France
  13. I'm keeping an eye on the massive storm to the N/NW of Paris, seems to be heading in our general direction!
  14. Possible supercell over Norfolk?
  15. This is a good website for lightning detection, too http://en.blitzortung.org/live_dynamic_maps.php?map=12
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