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Daniel Smith

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Daniel Smith last won the day on November 9 2010

Daniel Smith had the most liked content!

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  • Gender
  • Location
    Strood, Kent, 19feet above sea level
  • Interests
    Photography, Computers, Reading, Science, Music, Weather Forecasting
  • Weather Preferences
    Snow, Thunderstorms,

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  1. Latest NMM has really upgraded the snow potential for tonight Worth noting the APERGE and Euro4 are having none of it and show it as a rain event/barely getting further North than South London. Higher ground will be best but I think for many, just plain old rain
  2. Much better separation of energy between the shortwave and the PV lobe across Canada on this run. Moving towards the ECM/UKMO
  3. They might not give you an idea going forward but they serve well to show the different solutions within the EPS suite
  4. This is exactly why the ensemble means are useless and I don't put much credence into them. The mean would have you believe there's solid support within the ensembles at day 10 for a continuation of blocked and cold, the individual members above tell a completely different story. (Day 10 is miles away and until we get the shortwave sorted for this weekend, isn't really worth worrying about)
  5. APERGE hinting at a bit of back edge snowfall over the downs on Saturday now too
  6. ECM stands of course with the UKMO, shutting the GFS out of the party until it starts to behave.
  7. UKMO at 144 has strong heights in the Atlantic up towards Greenland and a cross polar flow, stunning chart hemispherically and locally. The GFS at 144 is, well.. quite frankly an absolute mess. Given the bullishness of the UKMO I'd be willing to bet the GFS is calling this wrong, as long as the ECM sticks with it's output tonight too then I'd expect to see the 18z climbdown, or at least begin to climbdown. If the ECM swings the other way then I'll start to become a bit less optimistic.
  8. Beautiful WAA into Greenland at +120 on the UKMO
  9. UKMO isn't backing down, the GFS has taken small steps towards but but certainly no big climbdown. It'll be an interesting ECM this evening, that's for sure!
  10. Radar app beta test feedback

    Can I get an invite to test the iOS app? My NetWx Extra username is "DanielAKAWMD"
  11. First time the APERGE has really shown snowfall potential for the South aside from the "wobble" it had a few days ago
  12. Possibility of something interesting for our region Friday night/early Saturday morning. A quick drive up the downs might be in order..
  13. The GFS isn't "that" different from the other models. But one minor change in the way it handles the shortwave energy around Greenland has big impacts further down the line. A very small change may not make a big impact hemispherically but it can do for us down on the ground, in this tiny corner of the world. The GFS IS one of the top performing models, I think it seems more "mental" because it runs 4 times a day and goes out further than the other models, if it ran twice a day and only went to 240 like the ECM then we would probably see more consistency, but running 4 times a day allows all the flip flops and minor changes to become very much apparent. The ECM has it's flaws too, often going insane on the amplification only to massively water it down in subsequent runs, "that ECM" comes to mind. EDIT: The posts I was replying to have been removed so now I just look like a madman
  14. Nice and clear in the extended then..