damianslaw

GFS continues to play around with extensive heights to our north as we approach Easter, Ive not been checking the ensembles to see where the ops are sitting in the means.. but I am taking note..

A mood change of a day, all very promising and cheerful this morning, all dull and gloomy this afternoon. The rain has been patchy but it all has a late winter feel to things rather than early spring, such is the rebound nature of March.

Summer8906 Yes not a very stormy winter, and in the main despite how wet it has been, the rain came in moderate outbursts, steady rather than deluges... at least from a lakeland perspective, hardly any flooding, which is a big bonus. We were not far off a cold unsettled winter, had the jet been more southerly, the cold was there to our north, just out of reach to tap into, evidenced by the fact Iceland had a cold winter, Shetland was average.

April, May and first half of June is my favourite time of year weather wise and for being outdoors, usually drier than any other 2 and half month period, everything growing fresh green, sunshine hours by mid May reach their annual peak, none of the very humid cloud dank infested airstreams of high summer, the promise of summer to come still, ever increasing daylight.. the year doesn't get any better than in this time period. Overall May is the par excellence month!

We are entering on average our driest most settled quarter of the year, which tends to implode by the summer solstice, whilst mid June to mid Sept is our warmest quarter it is typically far wetter and more unsettled. Overall I far prefer the next quarter of the year and in this regard don't want to move straight to summer, a definate shift takes place in late March, the new 'dawn' is just around the corner.

A rarity here, tends to be a east coast phenonema.. when very cold convective airstreams hit the warm SSTs... The only thundersnow I can remember was late on 21 Dec 2009. Heavy snow showers banded together from a SW direction off Morecambe Bay unusually, with a cold trough parked to our north, arctic air reached us on a long sea track from the SW, the warm Irish Sea interacting with the cold air aided convection.

IDO Yes a change from a predominantly very mild unsettled large middle back to the earlier unsettled chillier/average start. Not a great prospect in the run up to Easter.

Looking at the synoptics must have been evaporative cooling at play, shows don't need very cold uppers in mid March to produce snow, just enough precipitation and modest uppers.

Its going to be a very frustrating day, the sun has burst through last hour or so, but knowing rain is knocking on our door, it is putting pay to outdoor plans. Sods law timing wise, arriving in the evening would be far better, but a band of rain moving through Saturday afternoon is the absolute worst timing at any point in the week..

tricol Its a month I never rate and thankful out of the way, dips its toes in and out of winter and spring, can never make up its mind, whereas April though the most varied month, has a more definate Spring feel to it, combined with all the new growth, it feels so very different. Im the same with September and October, September I find very frustrating..

A change in the ECM and UKMO output for next weekend at least, the azores high sitting out west with a deep trough pushing east pulling in a chilly northerly, GFS heads the same way, then develops extensive northern blocking. They must be responding to some new signal, when you see abrupt changes arising in the 6-7 day timeframe it does suggest 'new developments', perhaps more varied fayre for the latter part of the month, compared to the very generous very mild albeit dull wet big middle..

Mmm thought we might at least have a few sunny spells this morning, instead low misty cloud.. hope it breaks before the rain arrives again, otherwise it will be another very poor day.

Always interesting to look at analogues, but winter 23-24 closest analogue was 09-10 and look how it turned out! Winter 23-24 much more closely resembled winter 97-98 that was a super El Nino, this year we had a very strong El Nino. March was mild. April cool and cyclonic, a good portion of mid May very good but turned wet and cool. Summer 98 a washout sadly, followed by the usual dry warm September.

Temps certainly have rocketed in past few days and will continue to do so with very mild weather forecast. Signal still for cooler or at least average temps latter part of March.

Summer8906 There is set to be a marked drop in temps this eve behind the front, a widespread air frost in the north, will take time for the cold air to advect south.

No sunshine today, but far brighter than the last 4. Some blue sky at times and the clouds lifted to reveal tops of fells briefly. A rare cold night ahead, touch of air frost possible. Tomorrow will dawn fine but sadly deteriorate as it goes on.

Gosh, the cloud level is lifting to about 500m first time since Sunday seen it at such a level. A woeful week so far for anything bright or even just high cloud.

Continued signal for azores heights to eventually advect back west for the last week of March introducing a chillier feed from the north. Until then we see the azores high trying best to ridge through the UK and settle things down in the week ahead but too much energy in the northern arm of the jet, ultimately thwarted as the trough eventually pushes east, but it will be a slow protracted affair. End product, mild but very cloudy and wet in the north and west, very mild and less wet and dull further south and east with fleeting sunshine. All tedious in my view.

Weather Enthusiast91 A similiar scenario occured to an extent with the 2021 winter lockdown, overall there was alot of cold sunny weather here at least and decent snowfall amounts for walking, also dry from Boxing Day onwards and right through April... yes it was cold, but very dry... had it happened a year earlier we would have endured a very wet stormy spell indeed up until late March, with a very wet February. Uncanny how very dry periods occured during both lockdowns, making going outside much more pleasant than had we seen lengthy wet spells. Typically the easing of restrictions in May coincided with a very wet miserable May. Its almost as if the weather gods were with us, no other comparable dry periods to compare with really, perhaps spring 17 and Jan-May 18 a close match.

After last week's relatively sunny days, we've taken a major step back this week, feels we've gone back a month, low cloud days are making for very low light levels, by half 5 darker tones setting in and quite dark by half 6. Gosh its a long slog to the clocks going forward, can't come soon enough! How different things feel once that day arrives. Second most psychologically affecting day of the year, after 'dark Sunday' in late October.

Yes uncanny how the change to dry and sunny coincided exactly with the lockdown day of 23 March. I remember the 22nd Mothers Day I think it was being warm, dry and sunny, sitting outside. The slight lifting of restriction, meeting another person outside happened on 14 May and the weather held through to about mid June. However late June saw a change to very wet.

Low cloud to valley level 4 days on the trot, feel sorry for any tourists who are wanting to take pictures of the fells.. haven't seen ground above 250m. Feels akin to the dark gloomy depths of December.

This March is fast entering the bin titled 'forgettable', what a tedious uninteresting month its turning into.

Mmm jury out on whether we can tap into a lengthy dry spell courtesy of high pressure, as suggested by GFS. In the reliable, more of the same, after a cooler blip tomorrow, we continue to see a SW flow predominantly, frontal features bringing heaviest rain to the NW, the SE may see fairly dry but everywhere disappointingly dull.. and its the lack of sun forecast that makes the outlook very uninspiring. Longer term, some signs of a drying up, but also sign of heights either building out west heading north, or north, the eventual outcome could be a chilly showery or wet cyclonic spell in the run up to easter. March 2024 may end up notably wet, mild but also exceptionally dull, a poor combination.

A feature of the winter has been long drawn NE arctic winds into the north atlantic through Iceland, but they seem to only have generated low pressure to our west/sw held in situ by heights to our NE. Quite an unusual anomaly. how the cold was locked to our north but not over the arctic.