damianslaw
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Posts posted by damianslaw
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raz.org.rain Usually have to wait until May for our first 20 degrees, and could well be the case this year.
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WYorksWeather Quite odd maps, greens and oranges all over the shop for rainfall, the green over Spain for rain combined with orange for higher heights doesn't add up, also looks like strong heights to our NW and some form of trough to the NE with heights into central europe, trying to pick the bones what the mean surface pressure charts would be but can't. These are average means I guess and can't tell you synoptics on the ground.
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WYorksWeather These warm temp anomaly forecast maps are shown for every season nowadays, nothing new. Can't remember last time average or below shown, mind last cold season was Spring 21, so they've been right, just a case of how deep the reds are nowadays.
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raz.org.rain We have seen sudden changes in fortune from very dry to very wet and vice versa.. we shall see, ENSO state could be a key player, a change to a longer more neutral enso could be in our favour this summer, if you want dry weather, but a change to a stronger la nina may just prolong the wet theme. I've commented before how wet spells can last a few months or a few years... pivotal transitions as follows:
June- July 92 from very dry to very wet lasting to Feb 95
Feb - Mar 95 very wet to very dry, lasting to April 97
Apr - May 97 very dry to very wet lasting to Dec 00
Dec 00- Jan 01 very wet to dry.. the next 6 years brought quire a few lengthy dry periods notably much of 2001, 2003 until later on, culminating in the very dry Nov 05 - July 06 period
Jul - Aug 06 very dry to very wet lasting to Nov 09.
Nov 09- Dec 09 very wet to dry, lasting to April 11
Apr 11- May 11 very dry to wet, lasting to Mar 12
Mar 12- Apr 12 very dry to very wet, the wet theme lasting a long time with brief blips all the way to April 18!
Apr 18 - Aug 18 a shortlived dry spell
Aug 18- Sept 18 dry to wet lasting to Mar 20
Mar 20- Apr 20 very wet to very dry, lasting to Sep 22, yes summer 21 was quite wet for some and winter 21-22 but not especially so.
Sep 22- Oct 22 dry to very wet, lasting to ?
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Fed up of nearing on 10 months of cloud and rain, bar the drier intervals early Sept, early Oct and to a degree the colder spells late Nov/early Dec and 6-18 Jan, probably had about 5-6 weeks tops of decent weather since the heatwave imploded in June. Totally fed up.
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SunSean Just depressing, April figures so far exceptionally low.
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Sherry Ah yes I expected that might be the case. Still lots of uncertainty second half of April, its a tricky time of year to predict.
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Had to remind myself what thread this is, talk of hottest summers... oh well..
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Despite some drier sunnier weather on the way in the days ahead, hopefully, we can safely say first half of Spring 2024 has been thoroughly wet and very dull, the mild temps have only enabled more rain and cloud to envelop than usual, a blessing in disguise.
It is rare for a whole Spring to go by with very little dry sunny weather. Lets hope for a change in fortune second half. Statistically the driest 6 weeks of the year, sunshine levels reach their near yearly peak, indeed by late May they peak. Its a period I savour!, but things better change quick.. 2018 a good example how things can drastically change.. but I'm not expecting anything on that level sadly.
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raz.org.rain Look a little further ahead and the GFS 12z pulls the high quickly NW and a cold N/NE flow envelops the UK. All conjecture at such range, but its a theme appearing on a few GFS runs latter stages of output. ECM interestingly also suggests the high will be shunted west and north west quick as well.
Lots of uncertainty on finer details as we enter second half of April, but an emerging trend is a settling down with strongish heights near or over the UK, but they do look quite fragile prone to loose footing, the question is where will they end up. At this point in the year quite often they retrogress west and north as we lose the core of the PV, or east and north east..
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Might just be my state of mind, but is anyone feeling 2024 so far, the weather has been exceptionally uninspiring other than the 6-18 Jan, the only drier and sunnier spell than average.
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A grim day, no reedeming qualities. Damp dank and dreary, moderate rain at times. Currently very gloomy low cloud. Maxed around 11 degrees, still cool.
Not inspired with the outlook, whilst milder for a bit, alot of cloud still.
One of wettest and dullest first halves to April on the way.. sunshine levels must be exceptionally low for the time of year, by May we reach annual yearly peak.
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Kirkcaldy Weather Interesting significantly cold outbreaks everywhere it seems but never the UK! Are we just being dealt a poor hand at present?
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danm Interesting video, we've had southerly jet, but not far enough south to import any easterly and northerly influences, shows SSW's, southerly jets and negative NAO doesn't always equate to cold. Indeed very mild, courtesy of more of a west based NAO and super warm SSTs.
Back to the models. generally staying changeable, a south west flow becomes westerly then north westerly, possibly northerly and north easterly, the clock time in sync with the weather.
Next week probably much drier than this week, but colder, might we see a run of average/ colder average days, first time in 3 months.
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Another miserable day weather, it has brightened up at times this afternoon, sparking off showers. Heavy rain overnight and this morning led to lots of standing water. Cold feeling, max temp 9.5 degrees.
Outlook stays very mixed, milder for a bit, but cloudy and wet at times, limited dry spells, also windy, cooler through weekend, certainly first half of April will be classed as very unsettled.
Longer term, perhaps some colder drier conditions with northerly and easterly influences as often happens deeper into Spring.
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WYorksWeather Yes, not great prospects for here, given we are firmly in our 'drier season', that tends to last until late June.
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Just read Cumbria weather report for April 1978. A cold dry month it says with mostly easterly and northerly winds. 5cms snow here on 11th , a further 5 cms on 13th.
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Certainly a notably mild start, but also wet and rather dull. The theme of very wet very mild and very dull months continues it seems, though April is rarely very wet with exception 2012... and there are signs the second half of the month could be a lot drier than the first half, if high pressure does come on the scene depending on location, it may well bring much cooler minima something that has eluded the UK for 3 months.
It does feel since the 19th Jan by and large we've seen the weather behave akin to a long broken record, one featuring a stubborn trough trapping mild moist air, its been thoroughly miserable.
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Opportune time to reflect on today's weather, a rather cloudy day, drizzly rain at times, more so this afternoon, some brightness. A neither here nor there sort of day. Not expecting much change to bright in remaining hours, only increased likelihood of more rain.
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Interesting to note the article saying could have cold springtimes number of years, indeed cold northerly outbreaks were a feature of many following springs, 79, 80, 81, 83, 85, 86, 87, 88. 89, 90 all brought snowy airstreams mid spring, sometimes in May i.e. 79.
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At that point in the year, whereby I tend to leave it until about half 3/4 before commenting and reflecting on the day's weather, given there is much daylight left, and a change can and does often occur by late afternoon, for better or worse. In the winter months by 2pm the general state of play can be summarised. Leaving things to about 4pm also enables a more informed view of when and what high maxima may occur, in the summer months can take until 6pm to reach max, whereby in winter months rarely is the max reached after 2pm. Interesting to note the sudden change in feel and psyche that takes place now.. it is sudden and quite profound.
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WYorksWeather Perception suggests to me less in the way of the classic ridge /trough pattern in succesion, i.e. the low pressure from the west, associated warm front, SW winds backing west, then pronounced cold front and NW airflow, followed a cool ridge, and back to the SW flow and warm front. Instead we seem to have deeper troughs to our west, pumping up stronger ridges fending off the low pressure and pulling in southerly and long drawn SW flows, with inflated azores high, when low pressure does move through, the ridge to the SW is keen to advance quick with NW flow brushing far NE UK only.
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B87 Nov 85, Jan, Feb, Mar and Apr 86 all below mean average, notably November, February - exceptionally, a sub freezing mean and April. No wonder everything was still bare by 1 May. It was a notably cold period on the back of a cold 1985, August and Sept 86 were significantly below average. Such conditions today would feel like an ice age.
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A blustery day throughout, indeed windier than yesterday..Apart from a spit of rain, we've stayed dry remarkably. Not a good day's weather overall, no sun, and cool in the wind.
The coming week offers more wind and rain.
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Moans, ramps and banter
in Spring Weather Discussion
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Summer8906 Could be wrong wasn't 1959 sunniest year on record, if so, we are as far apart as 1959 as we can be.