damianslaw
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Posts posted by damianslaw
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Interesting stats, not many examples of significant falls as I thought the case for April, probably also May.
1995 keeps cropping up as a comparator month for 2024..
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A chilly start. Bright rather than sunny, clouds may bubble up to produce a shower or two.
Current temp 8.0 degrees.
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Not kept focused on the weather today, other than to say we stayed dry, reading the thread lots of convection about, but not here. Lots of sunshine and far more springlike compared to yesterday.
Tomorrow sees a greater threat of showers, Thursday light rain, and then, gosh we might see at least 3 dry days in a row! Hallelujah!
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reef April 2024 could go down as one of those classic switcharound months, where first and second half are complete opposites CET wise. Such months include Jan 13, Feb 05, 09, 12, Nov 05.. can't think of others but sure someone with stats will tell me.
A finish in the 9s now looking a more and more possible outcome. It is unusual for April and May to see much colder second halves than first halves though..
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For the first time in over 3 months, yes that long, the models show high pressure rather than low pressure ruling the roost in the near term. We are not talking a major blocking high that will fend off frontal features, namely as it is forecast to position to our west at first allowing weak frontal features to flow around its NE flank, it then attempts to build over and through to our east but ultimately becomes thwarted by lower heights which look set to develop into a major euro trough. In these set ups which are very common in the latter half of Spring, chilly easterly and north east winds can bring cool damp showery airstreams to the east and south, whilst the north and west holds onto the driest sunniest weather. The only time in the year when the NW is on the 'fine' side of the NW- SE divide.
More notable is the return to near average means, again something we haven't seen for any length of time since mid January.
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A tempestuous day, squally downpours and downdraughts, a pool of sub 528 dam air overhead, and consequently cold. Temps hovered between 5 and 8 degrees, fells retained a white coat above 650m.
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Memories of heavy snow showers one evening in Newcastle, possibly the Tuesday evening of 16th?
The Aprils of 98-00 all brought lying snow after very mild winters with little snow. Interesting 2008 also brought lying snow after a very mild winter, 1989 as well... quite a correlation. April 16 also, again after a very mild winter.
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Cold out there, currently 5 degrees, snow line 400m. Winter bites back.
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A brrr day forecast tomorrow, don't put those winter woolies to the back of the cupboard just yet. We are forecast to have a brief high of 8 degrees in a very strong NW wind and plenty of heavy showers, little sun. Snow level 400m, freezing level 500m rising to 750m, could be very wintry on the fells.
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Are we going to see a classic flip month - first half exceptionally mild, second half average or indeed a bit below.. we shall see. Remember we managed a 2 week slightly colder than average spell 5-19 Jan, more so in the north bookended by notable mild.
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Left the gloom dank ridden NW, for a much brighter even sunnier NE right now, a brighter weekend in prospect in Tyne and Wear than the Lake District on the way, but rain will be a feature here as well, just probably lighter and more shortlived.
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Cheshire Freeze GFS offers the traditional winter snow cold lover synoptics in mid-late Spring, as said if you asked me when most likely date period for such synoptics, its the six week window we are about to enter, all too common.
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Lukesluckybunch Yes, and very normal for second half of Spring. Indeed its rare to not see easterly or northerly episode at some stage in the spring, and they can be prolonged.
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Scuba steve Its felt like 4pm in winter all year!
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Just fed up completely now of the rain, the added warmth today is only intensifying the current rain, I feel the general added warmth in the atmosphere can only enhance rainfall this summer, in recent years we seem to be seeing much more intense rainfall from weak frontal features. It is not a good prospect. Current conditions are thoroughly awful, lake district lost under yellows and reds.
raz.org.rain drier compared to the significantly above average rain so far this April, may just mean slightly less wet.
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Look at the current radar, Lake District lost in a sea of yellows and reds, heavy intense rain, swollen rivers, it feels akin to a evening in December, horrible.
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The dry interlude didn't last, moderate rain outside and another dull drab evening, this is tiring now. Just not feeling 2024 in any way, can we start it again!
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Wow a window of dry weather outside, set to be brief, rain later, complete dry days continue to elude us.
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Cheshire Freeze These type of synoptics most likely during second half of Spring than any other time of year, and consequently not to be dismissed.
The models continue to toy with heights not gaining a full stronghold over the UK through next week, they do build enough to kill off the atlantic, but core centre is just to our west, combined with rising pressure to our NW as the core PV ebbs away, end result a chill flow from between north and east. Such developments are well outside the reliable, and heights might ridge east or south east, we haven't the heights yet though, lots of uncertainty.
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Summer8906 South westerlies probably bring duller weather to the Lake District than any other part of England, there is only sea to our SW!
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Summer8906 Could be wrong wasn't 1959 sunniest year on record, if so, we are as far apart as 1959 as we can be.
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raz.org.rain Usually have to wait until May for our first 20 degrees, and could well be the case this year.
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WYorksWeather Quite odd maps, greens and oranges all over the shop for rainfall, the green over Spain for rain combined with orange for higher heights doesn't add up, also looks like strong heights to our NW and some form of trough to the NE with heights into central europe, trying to pick the bones what the mean surface pressure charts would be but can't. These are average means I guess and can't tell you synoptics on the ground.
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by damianslaw
Models holding firm on a generally more settled theme compared to anything since mid January. I say 'more settled', not exclusively settled which I would describe as dry throughout. After tomorrow's frontal features work through, high pressure looks set to osscilate in our vicinity, first to the west, then building through the UK over the weekend and then advecting north west, pulling in a north easterly flow.
I'm waiting for the often used phrase at this time of year 'west is best', all very common synoptics second half of Spring. Look back at the weather archives and you will see this type of synoptic feature often in many years, and often for quite some time. Northerlies and easterlies reach their annual peak hereon until June. For someone in the 'west', its why I rate May my favourite month of the year, most likely to experience less in the way of dank westerlies and southwesterlies, by May the sun is just as strong as in high summer but air temps are tempered.