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damianslaw
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Posts posted by damianslaw
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From a health perspective, WHO recommend indoor temps should not drop below 18 degrees. Lots of guidance states 17 degrees absolute min. If it drops to 16 degrees this is not healthy. Whilst some may cope with 13 degrees etc, this is not good for health.. yes I remember ice in the windows etc, but also remember how uncomfortable it was.
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Whilst comfortably over the 61-90 average which is fast becoming very out of date to compare mean against, why officially still use it I don't know, Sept 2022 was bang on the 01-20 average, and only 0.4 degrees above the 81-10 average, which perhaps should become the mean we measure against. Therefore a very near average month.
Anyone know why 61-90 still used? When did 41-70 stop being used in 1990? or 2000? Either way its more than 30 years since 1990.
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1 hour ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:
Wow! 1st October and we hit 20.3c! Didn't feel it mind.
Yes power of the sun on the wane now.. still has a bit of warmth in it, but in about 3 weeks time especially in the north its strength becomes weak.
Once October arrives I resign myself to 5 months of non- sitting outside on the garden terrace. With heating, not so, or when resting as part of a walk wrapped up, but general sitting out, well that's it until Spring.
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Still enough warmth in the early Oct sun outside of the wind to make it feel pleasant. It has the same strength as early March. In about 3 weeks time, around 20th, that warmth reduces markedly and days thereafter generally no matter what the temp says become too uncomfortable to sit out in unless wrapped up.
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Sometimes October and November can offer teasers as to what the winter may bring. Low pressures that dive into Europe on a NW- SE trajectory, rather than west-east, can be a harbinger that the atmosphere is not all normal.
Also low pressure that comes unstuck over the UK, cyclonic spells.
We've largely seen a sluggish jet since Dec 2020, lets see if it continues.
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1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:
Perhaps it's not so much the rain that gets me on second thoughts, it's the weather between the fronts.
Today is a perfect case in point, which illustrates all that is wrong with the Northwestern European climate. We're between frontal systems, yet it's completely overcast and the airmass is very damp and humid. Still a lot of standing water now, hours after the rain stopped. Last week, despite being cool and changeable, was better because the air was drier so the ground dried out between the showers.
Typical October weather, nuff said really. Damp, humid and overcast - but not cold.
Maybe if we had two active frontal systems per week (both on Mon-Fri or overnight, of course) but with dry, bright, low-DP air with drying northerly or easterly winds in between, that would keep everyone happy. November 1996-like conditions, in other words. One of the few wet autumn/winter months I actively enjoyed.
That, I think, is why we have it so bad in NW Europe on reflection. Other parts of the world get rain, but the rest of Europe and most of North America get much more pleasant weather in between any frontal systems. Here, certainly from October to February, it seems to be almost permanently damp.
The opposite time of year, April, is quite the reverse. Perhaps (with May) the most interesting month of the year as it's just about the only one which can produce 29C heat and heavy, lying snow.
Its called a maritime climate, when the airflow is between SW and NW, more often than any other direction, it is humid and temperate, lots of associated cloud. As we move into October, such air generally means showers or overcast skies between fronts, unless there is a long fetch polar flow entrenched.. then brighter showery air occurs, the NW polar maritime airstream. The tropical.maritime airstream is absolutr worse here, detest it, returning polar maritime not much better.
Polar maritime, arctic maritime and polar continental in the Oct to March period are the best for clearer conditions. Tropical continental and SE flows can be very dull.
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Reflections on past winters will always be based on local conditions. Decembers 1998, 2001 and 2004 all brought some snowy cold conditions at times in the north, 2001 notably so, that was an underated December, exceptionally sunny, frosty with snow at times second half. Dec 04 brought a white christmas here. Dec 98 transient snow early on more so in the NE, overall Dec 98 worst of the bunch for snow and cold.
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Jan 2023 will mark 10 years since I've received what I would class a heavy single snowfall, 6 inches plus. We just missed out in March 13 and late Feb 18. Plenty of 1-3 inch falls since only. Hoping this winter produces at least one heavy fall that can stick around a couple of days at least, preferably falling on a Friday. Not much to ask for!
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2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:
Early thoughts personally are that Oct through Jan look a tad cooler than average (signal for high pressure in Jan but fairly cyclonic in the Oct-Dec period). Signal for a mild February (classic +AO) and then dry again in March.
Cold cyclonic would suit cold lovers and those wanting rain which may turn increasingly wintry by year end. Won't suit those wanting to reduce energy bills.
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A very contrasting month, one of those switcharound ones, where a very mild first half is cancelled out by a colder second half to produce a near average finish, and a mean that doesn't reflect the month at all.
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I can't recall any winter when 'factors' have stacked in favour of a colder than average winter.
Solar state may have been a key factor in the slightly colder than average winter 20-21.
Last year I think we were unlucky, heights didnt quite align in a place for cold against a sluggish atlantic.
Whilst the analogue years mentioned apart from 10-11 were mild overall, Dec 01 was quite cold, 98 brought a northerly shot, 04 as well, 07 brought a cold frosty spell, so Dec at least could be wintry.
Apart from 07 the Novembers were cold at times, with northerlies.
Looks like northerlies could be a strong feature end of the back, with strong mid atlantic ridging.
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2 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:
I do like that autumn feels like it's really come in. I feel like in recent years it has often felt like a quick change into autumn. The autumns of 2019 and 2020 I feel were notable in this aspect for a lack of any Indian summer and very seasonable autumn weather. That's why 2021 came as a shock for its persistent mild nothingness. Autumn 2022 feels like a return to basics alreadt, but we've yet to see what October has to bring yet.
October is the time when there is a psychological shift from the summer state of mind that kicks in when April arrives, exhanged to the winter state of mind. We mentally prepare ourselves for the long winter ahead. In this sense 1 October and 1 April might be said to be most pivotal points of year for the mind body and soul!
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1 hour ago, jon snow said:
Just perused the GEFS 6z mean and I honestly can’t see any change since yesterday, ergo, it’s a predominantly n / s to nw / se split for the majority of the run!…personally, I find autumn boring weather wise but I love the changes in tree colours from green to yellow / brown
but I wish we could just fast forward to winter already.. pffffffft !!!! 
My interest picks up late October.. we are in that transitional period when odds of 'extremes' temp wise at least are at there lowest, though at the start of the 6 month period of the year when storms and heavy rain most likely.
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October usually one of our most mixed changeable months and often wet, sometimes very wet. Struggling to see a below average month, but perhaps quite cool at times, similiar to September without the warmth. Ill go a slightly above average 11 degrees. Could be quite wet in the north at least, but fairly dry further south at times. May well see a northerly plunge at some point. Overall a very average autumnal October, nothing out of the ordinary. Sneaky feeling November could be less normal.
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A rare instance of a day that sees a cold front move through and warms things up, inidicative of the fact there is still residual warmth from the sun combined with atlantic flows this time of year. Current temp 13.1 after having been held below 11 degrees before the clearance arrived.
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Back edge here now.. cloud breaking and some blue sky poking through.
Look forward to when cold fronts do this further into Autumn with bright brilliant clear cold skies behind in polar air. Love it when this happens mid afternoon and we then see a rapid cool down in the eve and clear skies. Alas this one has no polar air behind it, just more showers from a SW flow.
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5 minutes ago, PennineMark said:
It's been that long since we've had a proper frontal rain event I'd forgotten what they are like. The same goes for a lot of the idiot drivers I've seen today too. Fairly grim afternoon and a decent total of 17mm rain in 3 hours since 12pm with temps at 11c. October tomorrow and its definitely Autumn outside.
This is true mid autumn weather, tye type we see alot of mid Oct to mid Nov. Can see the back edge of the front not too far to our NW.. whilst a broad band it has shifted through quite quick. Expect rainfall totals well in excess of an inch over much of Cumbria today. All welcomed for the reservoirs and groundwater levels.
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1 hour ago, Downburst said:
The warm anomaly in the north Atlantic is I think evident in the EC 46 day released yesterday, all the way out we are ~1 C above normal 2m temps into mid-November.
The 500 anomaly charts well into October and into November do show what I expect will be surface highs near or around us and troughing to the east into central Europe.
I think the temp anomaly shows this at the same period end of October.
Nearing on two years we've had heights strong near or over UK. Seems entrenched.
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Very heavy rain now and gusty winds. Nay be a squall of sorts. Its miserable!
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No Friday feeling weatherwise, low cloud to valley level, heavy rain, current temp 10.7 degrees. Many a noon December day the same.
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Just looked at the radar, mass of rain knocking on the Lake District door.. can easily see an inch out of this in the valleys, quite possibly double it on the fells. However, it looks like moving through quickly.
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Noticing tree leaf colour changes, but we are a good 3-4 weeks away from the most vivid evidence of change. Lots of acorns on the floor. Not seen chestnuts as yet.. the environment is now though in full autumn change.
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A pleasant day, felt quite warm, light winds and dry. Tomorrow oh dear, a day to stay indoors.
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6 hours ago, vizzy2004 said:
Managed 2.3°C on Tuesday here. Lowest temperature I’ve recorded in September since I moved her in 2016.
Some spots down in Kent as low as -1.5°C this morning it would seem. Impressive for so far south after what’s been such a hot summer.
Where was -1.5. Notable cold for September.
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by damianslaw
Models all painting a very typical outlook for the time of year. A broadly westerly flow with the atlantic in full ascendancy. Frontal features with oomph moving through the UK, giving copious rainfall for the NW in particular. Weak ridge development shown for next weekend, and then signal for more of a flow from between north and west longer term as the azores high ridges further west and north which will turn things colder after a relatively mild start to the month. GFS and ECM would very likely produce first widespread ground frost overnight 9th into 10th, all a long way off.
If you like autumnal unsettled conditions the outlook will suit you fine.