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damianslaw

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Everything posted by damianslaw

  1. Please keep this thread alive.. it may well justify some activity this week, especially end of the week. Report any ground or indeed air frost.. i'll be keeping an eye on minima..
  2. Scotland endured a consistently cold period from Christmas Eve through until mid February. As evidenced by the fact a number of lochs began to freeze by early February.
  3. The most temperate feeling the year can give is when high pressure is on the scene second half of September - best conditions for outdoor activities.
  4. Could well be a sandwich type month, one with three layers.. the top thick slice denoting wet and warm, middle dry and cooler, bottom slice.. average and wet possibly might be a thin slice...
  5. Yes the evolution of 12z GFS more akin to after effect of a SSW, high pressure over scandi, then major retrogression to the NW and a jetstream collapsed.. an odd run, suspect an outlier. ECM heading towards an atlantic breakthrough but a slow affair.
  6. Unusually the weather today better further north in the region you went. Apart from a brief showery burst early afternoon it stayed dry. Nice sunshine late afternoon and an evening complete opposite to yesterday, fine and clear and still quite light at 8pm. Current temp 12.7 degrees. A long run of nights single digit minima ahead, could well see our first ground frost by the weekend.
  7. Quite a cool down forecast from mid week on and into next week. Even London looks like it will return means 13-14 degree range, below par for mid Sept, CET zone a degree or so cooler would expect. The first half of Sept 2022 will though go down as one of warmest on record I expect. The slow moving low pressure system to the SW key reason, it maintained very warm tropical air over UK and prevented clear skies which at this time of year begin to have a marked cooling effect on mean values.
  8. The strong heights over west atlantic seaboard correlate with the very high SSTs we have in that region right now.. and does seem therefore very plausible. Conversely we see the long wave trough over eastern atlantic seaboard.. it looks like the jet would be NW- SE aligned squeezed between heights to the SW and NE. This would allow for quite a bit of polar air influence. Whilst not a pattern conducive for signficant or sustained cold, it is also one not conducive for signficant or sustained mild either. Could result in a very changeable variable picture, sometimes mild, sometimes cold, sometimes rain, sometimes snowy, sometimes dry and frosty, sometimes stormy.. a real mix, most of our recent winters have been very homogenous with one type of weather dominating, often the wet mild variety. 17-18 and 20-21 only really varied winters since 12-13.
  9. Yes hitting that point in the year when high pressure aloft doesn't necessarily correlate with notable warmth for the time of year, unless it has very warm uppers mixed in, normally when the source is a more southerly one. This current high has cool origins and the continent albeit very slowly is cooling. The movement of such a high as forecast won't result in a notable increase in temps, but will still bring low 20s I suspect - warm but not exceptionally so. A coolish week ahead overall, most notable factor, chilly minima. Mist likely to be very prevalent.
  10. Could produce battleground snowfall events, tug between cold SE airstream and milder SW airstream.. ideally for cold snow rathee than rain you would want heights stronger near Iceland. The north though could sit on colder side of polar front jet.. cold zonality. All conjecture..
  11. The September customary high pressure spell on the way.. rare not to have a sustained spell of settled weather in the first two thirds of the month nowadays it seems. The upcoming week after tomorrow looks mostly fine. Northern parts will see a bit of weak frontal activity, and possible showers especially in the NE as we pull down cooler air from the north from mid week. By the weekend, the models all show high pressure ridging in, cutting off the cooler air. Not expecting this thread to be busy this week at all, due partly to the quiet nature of synoptics on offer, probably the best type of conditions under current circumstances.
  12. Yes went dark very early here combined with heavy rain, Autumn feels like it has arrived..
  13. First evening proper definately not feeling summer. Early dusk, incessant rain... very much a Sunday eve feeling..
  14. BBC going for 5 degrees minima by end of the week, whilst nothing too unusual for mid September, it's a clear signal we are waving good bye to summer properly.. yes we can have maxima well into the 20s in October still, but the lowering sun and less daylight combined with decaying state of nature, tells you it clearly is no longer summer, however long we may want to cling on, the same thing happens opposite end of the year, cold and snow can easily occur in April, but it is clearly Spring. The time of full change is the equinox.
  15. Been awaiting what could be quite a notable period of rainfall. First drops have started.. much better when the rain waits until late afternoon to arrive rather than finish, especially once into September and the evenings draw in quickly.
  16. After a notably unsettled spell, thanks to one low pressure system that stuck around for upwards of a week, the models are showing a return to the settled conditions we have very much become accustomed to this year, however, a batch of very heavy rain for northern parts to go through later Sunday and into Monday first. High pressure setting up to our west, pulling in quite chilly uppers by mid week, lots of bright, sunny conditions, possibly showers in eastern parts, misty mornings and cool evenings and nights - the other side of early autumn I guess.. by the end of the coming week and into the following week, GFS and ECM keen to pull heights east and settle over the UK, with the jetstream remaining very sluggish.
  17. Perhaps another factor that forced the government to hand out monies to offset impending energy costs was looking at long range forecasts for winter ahead..
  18. A marked cool down forecast by most models, as we lose the cloudy skies and also pull in cooler air from the north through the coming week, this combination will result in much chillier minima, with maxima only around average at best - the sun is weakening now.
  19. Yes a number of spots might come close to ground frost territory at least, a surge of colder uppers by mid week followed by a high pressure from a cool source, these are ideal ingredients for frost. We shall see..
  20. A very mild start.. but September typically is a month that cools markedly in the last 10 days.. need to see where we are by the 20th before calling whether it ends up one of the warmest. The cloudy skies are holding minima up.
  21. This statement could have been made in the late 90s, we had a 11 year run from 97-98 to 07-08 when only short term cold spells and nothing severe happened. Up popped 08-09 the precursor to 09-10. Mind we are now at the 10 year point of a similiar run.. wouldn't be surprised for a rogue notable cold one to pop out of the bag again. Perhaps more wishful thinking..
  22. I've commented many a time how lengthy very dry periods have historically been followee by abrupt very wet spells. Far too early to say if we are seeing such a change now, but the last week has been very wet for many, but not all. June 97, Apr 12 - good examples of sudden about turns from dry to wet.. Sept 76 also.. is this a 76 change? or a Sept 95 change, the latter was very wet but was followed by 20 months of mostly very dry! Difference is we are I would say 18 months plus into a dry period. 2021 was notably dry away from the SE.
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