damianslaw
Model Forum Host-
Posts
17,313 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
85
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by damianslaw
-
Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat
damianslaw replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Very average then, in a rather non-average year so far, warmth and dry have ruled.. so it suggests the jetstream will finally dominate things.. -
Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat
damianslaw replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Yes recently we've seen a very slow PV formation in November and start of Dec, only for a switch to be turned on and in no time its on turbo charge it seems. -
Have you turned your heating on yet?
damianslaw replied to stewfox's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Quite a lengthy part of the day Ive needed electric heater on. Without, its dropping down to 15 degrees. Its probably more expensive than gas central heating.. -
First ground and air frost watch 2022-23 season
damianslaw replied to damianslaw's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Yes a few more spots may record their first ground frost early hours tomorrow or Wednesday. No signs of first nationwide air frost on the horizon, but many a year it takes until November. The tipping point here tends to be third week of Oct, when clear skies can easily bring one even if uppers are not especially cold, just too early now, you need relatively cold uppers. -
September 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
damianslaw replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Nothing overly mild on the way next 4 days, indeed cool for late September. My guess is 0.2 drop tomorrow, then a further 0.3-0.4 drop until 30th. A good bet a finish of 14.6 degrees. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
damianslaw replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not if the 12z is to be believed. Yes it brings in the azores high pulling in some milder uppers, but it unusually ridges it through the UK and we then see northern blocking and low pressure over the UK on a southerly jet. GFS not renowned for showing such evolution. Could be an outlier but interesting all the same. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
damianslaw replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The pattern we've been in largely since Dec 2020, holds firm, shortlived unsettled spells around the weekly mark, longer more so further north in duration interspersed by lengthier settled spells upwards of 10 to 14 days, longer more so further south has been a repeat. Once again about to go into one of those unsettled spells, with settled quickly returning.. how long for we shall see, perhaps they may even out in duration as we move through Autumn, hard to sustain settled weather 2 weeks or more in Oct and Nov, probably more so than any other months, by Dec cold blocking highs can hold sway. -
September 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
damianslaw replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
May be one of those months with a classic downslope from start to finish with no upturns. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
damianslaw replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A chilly unsettled end to September on the cards. Definately an autumnal look to things. As we move into October models show a trend to more settled with the cool polar airstream cut off. All in all very typical conditions for the time of year. The jetstream has more oomph to it right now but much of the reason for this down to the behaviour of ex tropical storm systems, and we are far from a zonal outlook. -
September 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
damianslaw replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
A mean between 10 and 11 would be quite a notable cold end to the month -
Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat
damianslaw replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
A cold snap in late October always pricks my attention and speculation. 2000, 2008, 2010 and 2012 all produced low level snow in parts of the north from northerlies, and the following winters all brought some decent or very cold conditions. Conversely the normal wet mild weather we experience in late October has more often than not been followed by mild wet winters. Probably one or two exceptions to this. More recently we've had a few cold spells in November, apart from 2008, 2010 and to an extent 2017 these haven't been followed by cold winters. Last winters cold end to Nov a case in point, 2016 also. -
Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
damianslaw replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
We've turned the corner, I feel. Yes October can still bring 20+plus days but they feel as warm as equivalent days in late Feb- mid March, and therefore not summery. We are entering the most rapid transitional period of the year, which peaks late October.. rapid light loss, rapid sun strength loss.. the countdown of such change has started. -
UK Mountain Snowfall Season 2022-23
damianslaw replied to damianslaw's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Freezing levels set to drop below 1000m early new week, snowline could well be as low as 800m by Tuesday on Scottish Highlands. -
September 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
damianslaw replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
A finish in the mid to high 14s quite likely. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
damianslaw replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Agree, it looks more cyclonic than zonal. -
An autumnal start. After the heavy rain of yesterday there is much dampness and wet in the atmosphere, clear skies during the night and a polar airstream have combined to provide ideal conditions for mist to form. Chilly clear blue sky start to the day. Can we say Autumn has officially started? Yes we can!
-
My calandar states its Autumn tomorrow. A cold northerly forecast early in the new year, quite likely to bring snowfall to highest scottish hills. Nothing too unusual about that. The Lakeland fells typically have to wait until late October for their first dusting. Use this thread to post snow level lines, depths on our mountains.
-
September 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
damianslaw replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Summer ended firmly 31 August here this year. -
Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat
damianslaw replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
For snow lovers 3 months too early. These synoptics would by then most likely give a rain to snow event, with plenty of snow showers or bands of snow packing in behind, given it is an unstable set up. Alas at this time of year just cold rain. Still its always interesting to see amplified flows in Autumn, diving low pressure into Europe. -
Have you turned your heating on yet?
damianslaw replied to stewfox's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Gave in today and kept electric heater on for lengthy periods of the day, otherwise temp would have stayed around 16 degrees, which is uncomfortable and does not aid concentration and productivity when sat working. Can get away with no heating when not working..