damianslaw

Unless its a Dec 2009 set up, we had thundery snow from a SW flow off Irish Sea, the flow was arctic but took a long sea passage around a low pressure. Excellent snowy synoptic 20-21 Dec 09!

GFS most progressive of the models this morning, reverting to type.. ECM least, UKMO in the middle. Often the case.. GFS shunts the trough east by the end of the week, ECM keeps the low to the SW going nowhere... End results, colder from GFS, staying mild with ECM. Long term GFS shows kind of evolution tied to la Nina Nov composites, high pressure out west and a chilly northerly/ north westerly flow. Models have been caught out by tye positioning of the jet in recent days, only until very recently has a warm southerly source with low to the SW been forecast. 2022 continues to not follow the script.

Depends, much of winter 09-10 was northerly sourced and there was widespread snow often. If you have heights to the NW, low pressure and frontal features can attack from all directions, giving snow from all directions. The straight sourced northerly though is often shortlived associated with low pressure moving into scandi and mid atlantic heights, sometimes troughs are embedded and can last a couple of days, other times its a 24 hr toppler. The key is robust heights to our NW linking in with heights over the Pole as happened in winter 09-10 and Dec 10..

Thinking the warm atlantic SSTs are injecting quite a bit of heat into the atmosphere intensifying the rain despite lack of marked temp contrasts on marked frontal features or low pressure. All feels more summer like rain... than autumn, still October is a very wet month here.

Where are we rainfall wise? Looking a wet month for many.. Last week of the month all to play for still, it did look like things would cool down markedly, by next weekend, but now the models are showing a relatively mild period holding out.. but we are seeing quite marked daily variations, so a cold end could still materialise.

Good to see, I was in the Cairngorms late Oct 2019 and there was plenty of snow above the sane height. Its not normally until mid Nov we see snow sticking on our highest tops.

Just seen some comparisons of the Met October forecasts for N-J period and the only three since 2009 that it showed northerly heights were 2009, 2010, 2012... mmm, 2009 took to December though for heights to take control, 2010, spot on, 2012 yo yo heights in Dec- Jan, but was correct with less atlantic influence. It performed very well I would say!

Its been a very westerly/south westerly month so far, which favours eastern parts sunshine wise.

On the contrary the way the atlantic is behaving would I think increase chance of cold weather, just a case of where the high pressure sets up. In January it sat in the wrong place for cold, but had it nudged a bit east... apologise this would be better in the winter thread.

Jetstream forecast is a ragged one, normally at this time of year we would expect low pressure to move west to east. alas models showing a cut off low to our SW going nowhere, seems stuck in a washing machine. We saw very similiar synoptics early Sept, indeed its been a common theme this year, with heights to our east sucking in warm southerly air. Longer term still the indication something colder will manifest, but again the theme for 2022 seems that no cold is allowed. Its been an odd year with the atlantic out of oomph.

Window of fine weather in the Lake District. After yesterday's rain, rivers tumbling and waterfalls alive. More rain this evening.

I've said before, all homes are different in terms of the extent to which they retain heat, also the type of energy source you have. Location is key as well. Personal circumstance also a factor. Those saying can keep it off a long time are very fortunate indeed.

A tempestuous day, thunder and lightening, intense heavy downpours, hail, strong downdrafts, resulting in sudden localised flooding, drains overloaded. Wild!

In that transitional period between early autumn and deep Autumn. Deep Autumn I describe as period roughly 20 Oct to mid November, when we see rapid change in the feel of things, first air frosts likely for many, first cold feeling days, leaves peak in colour and break off quickly, light loss is signficant with clocks going back, sun loses all strength. By mid Nov, the late autumn feeling sets in.. and preparation for winter and christmas takes over. I find late October/ early Nov the most evocative time of the year, senses come alive. This is the last weekend of the year before that marked change in physche to one where the 'winter' head sets in, and usually the last one before you ditch the summer clothes/ light jacket attire. This is from a northern and Lakeland perspective.

Suspect that is the current low minima for the new season. I'll be posting my minima temp thread before end of October.

2009-10 stands out clearly with persistant negative NAO.

A day of showers today, current temp 10.2 degrees. A word on max temps forecast, at this time of year we have to remember these may only occur for an hour or two around 1-3pm mark, for example a forecast high of 13 degrees may only be achieved for an hour between 2 and 3pm.. The day may go like this. 8am 8 degrees 9am- 12pm climb to 10 degrees 12-1pm up to 11 or 12 1-2pm up to 13 2-3pm 13 3-4pm down to 12 4-5pm down to 11 5-6pm down to 10 6-12am down to 9 12am to 8am hover between 8 and 9 A good portion of the day fails to go above 10 degrees. This is how a westerly typical Oct day goes. High pressure days sees much more marked rise in morning and fall in evening..

As mentioned GFS and ECM push the low pressure to our SW through by this time next week and we then see colder conditions with the UK residing on the cold side of the polar front jet. GFS interesting output, northerly flow eventually after cold cyclonic and showery conditions.

Mmm November can be very cold, 2010 for example, but overall not easy to achieve. I agree October probably month when extremes temp occur least. Autumn by far most uninteresting season if you like extremes.

ECM chalk and cheese, previous run showed low pressure overhead 23rd, now it has high pressure, as said reliable timeframe short at present.

A mild outlook will prevent the CET dropping much further in the week ahead, perhaps a slight drop over the weekend, then a slight rise even, normally Oct delivers a flatline drop through the month. Latter part of tye month looking cool though and there could be a marked drop from next weekend on, but unlikely to be enough to enable a below average month, but more akin to September, close to average still within realms of possibility, late Oct can deliver quite cold CET values easily when under clear skies, sun is weak by then.

12z eventually shifts things along, the cut off low to the SW becomes absorbed by the main atlantic trough that pushes heights aside next weekend turning things colder and unsettled, it then moves east replaced by colder drier conditions with heights settling to our west. Let's see if ECM goes same way. we've seen quite marked changes just outside reliable in recent days, 6 day mark, so charts beyond come with large margin for error.

2022 the year that cold is not allowed into the UK!

Yes looked promising not long ago that second half of October would bring colder than average temps, alas synoptics not played out - the theme of 2022, and despite an amplified flow, the dice has fallen on the side of mild, with cut off low to SW meandering around with no oomph in the jet to kick it NE.. 2022 just seems destined to never bring any cold in!

Met Office bullish with there forecast for a dry start to November, cold nights and average days suggests they see high pressure either to the west or northwest centred close to the UK or just to the north.. I say close, otherwise would mention eastern and northern areas showery and colder.