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damianslaw

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Everything posted by damianslaw

  1. Proof and a reminder we had a number of mainly snowless mild winters 85-90 years ago.
  2. Had hoped for some potential snow activity this evening, alas as said chances wont appear until after 2am.. not great timing a Monday night.. anyhow hoping to wake to at least some snow falling from the sky, any cover will be a bonus.. another marginal set up that could go either way. Not expecting much, just a slight cover would do.. to redeem what otherwise will end up being a snow free January.
  3. One of those instances when evaporative cooling comes into play, in heavier precipitation away from the coast and a bit of elevation, then snow could give a decent cover.. touch and go.. Good to see reports of snow at low levels in N Ireland, that bodes well for some. I think the window for low level snow will be the depths of the night, and more so first thing around dawn.. Pity the cold air is going to be quickly pushed aside.. still it will be nice to see the hills in white for a couple of days.
  4. Seem to remember many FA up fourth round matches were postponed weekend 27/28th Jan.
  5. Monday night/Tuesday mornings holds interest for some snow down to low levels, FAX charts showing a small low disturbance moving through under cold enough uppers. Expecting another weather warning to appear for timerange.. In the meantime, tonight any snow most likely reserved for ground above 300 metres, but some elevations lower than this might catch in any heavy precipitation. Good to be able to mention snow.
  6. Looking at the shorter term prospects, subtle changes in the ECM and UKMO this evening in the 4-5 day timeframe, less influence of the azores high and more of an atlantic influence.. perhaps a sign the jet might be aligning itself on a more amplifed NW-SE position, with the end destination for heights to ridge through to the west of the UK.. marking a more concerted pattern change. GFS gets there eventually, ECM showing ridge/heights to the west building as well.. Are we seeing signs of a weakening atlantic caused by low heights anchoring over NE USA seaboard and heights building to the west... I think perhaps so..
  7. Mmmm this January is turning into a right dull gloom fest... another overcast grey day today, light drizzle an low cloud shrouding everything - very uninspiring, expecting a quick descent into dusk probably fairly dark by half 4 unfortunately.. tomorrow looks very wet and drab again. Thankfully early next week will bring a shift to something much brighter thanks to polar maritime airstream, and at all long last we will start to feel the effects of increasing daylight in the afternoons I feel, after nearly 3 long months of darkness.. The light is appearing at the end of the tunnel..
  8. Met Office forecast wordings are now so over cautious and precautionary its as if they are worried about a law suit!.. A case in point current wording for Monday and Tuesday, wintry showers could fall on higher ground, it should read 'will', there is no doubt they will fall given the uppers.. I guess it depends on what the Met Office class as higher ground - would be interested to note, if they are saying 200 metres, then 'could' probably right word to use, but 500m or more which I would class as higher ground then a definate 'will' should be used. I'm being very pedantic I know. Anyone else know what the cut off between lower levels and higher ground is??? Also defintion of 'hill snow' - again what level are they talking - difficult to have a catch all I guess.. but hill snow can mean 200 metres here, whereas it can mean 400 metres in Wales.. and barely 100 metres in Scotland..
  9. Read somewhere that this kind of synoptic is often a precursor to when a SSW occurs, high pressure building through the UK sometimes brings a milder surge then bang.. this happened in Feb 2018 from memory..
  10. Yes, Spring 95 was quite variable, March delivered a notably snowy start to northern and western parts with frequent bands of snow from the north west, later on there was a potent northerly as well, April brought a mix of chilly showery conditions and warmer settled weather, May 95 brought a real mixed bag as well, very warm early on, cold in the middle. It marked the start of a 24 month very dry period, with the atlantic blocked, and the UK exposed to more continental influences and high pressure. Spring 96 conversely was consistently chilly, little warmth at all, March brought alot of easterlies, and another battleground snow event, with the cold winning out, ditto April did the same, May was very chilly, northerly and easterlies persisted until the end of the month. The period Spring 95-Jan 97 reminds me a bit of the period Spring 09- Jan 11, which saw more in the way continental influence and a blocked atlantic, 1996 and 2010 were quite similiar..
  11. Might be able to do some snow radar watching Monday eve first time this season!
  12. I think the SST values to the NW are colder than average, and the source of air is coming from a cold Pole.
  13. As said concentrate on the shorter term, promising for some wintry fayre around here at least..
  14. Interesting reading, when did the tripole develop then in 2009, through the summer and autumn? normally its SST values in May that indicate likely negative NAO or not.. I think the El Nino modoki was a strong factor for the cold winter of 09/10, it did start mild after a very mild November as well.. 2010 was cold throughout with lots of northern blocking which will have helped with warm uppers over N Atlantic. A blocked spring helps I think with mid atlantic heights, 1995 brought this, and we saw a tripole in winter of 95/96.. did 2005 do the same?, tripole again in winter 2005/2006.
  15. There appears to be an increasing tendency in readers posts, to be ignoring what is happening in the here and now, and instead looking at what might happen in 10 days time, which always perplexes me.. sign of the time I think.. no-one seems to be 'in the present'... With this in mind, we do have a change on the cards from Sunday, for the north some what I would call proper cold air for 2-3 days about to move in, sub 528 dam air, thicknesses right side of marginal for snow I think down to quite low levels under any trough features which are being programmed - good to look at the FAX charts in these situations. Indeed first time this season I've bothered to look at them... Alas longer term its a shortlived polar maritime airstream before the omi-present azores high ridges back into the UK. Feels good to be able to mention the snow word.. Those away from the north and north west, I sense will not be interested in the upcoming spell.. but its good to see a change in airstreams from the perpetual tropical maritime, or anticyclonic gloom.. We saw similiar synoptics mid December, and they produced low level snow here.. 2 inches.
  16. Yes strong parallels with 2008, mid-late Feb 2008 brought a long anticyclonic spell and large diurnal temp range, with some frosty nights and mild days and abundant sunshine.. The cold arrived in time for easter and early April.. we were also I think in solar minima and crawled out of it following winter very slowly which marked a sea-change to much colder conditions... mmm... strong parallels..
  17. Yes it was a classic stalling battleground situation, with an occluded front grinding to a halt through SW Scotland and NW England and through west midlands. The heaviest snowfall was reserved for Dumfries and Galloway, and Cumbria and the west coast NW England next to Irish Sea. The front did move eastwards eventually but became a weaker feature and fizzled in situ, so central and eastern parts of N England didn't see much. We ended up with 18 inches, the snow started about 10am 5th and didn't stop until about 4pm 6th. Great timing for school children, we were all sent home Monday afternoon and didn't return until the following Monday - I can't remember if that was half term week, I think it may have been, nearly 2 weeks off.. Our heaviest snowfalls tend to come courtesy of similiar synoptics, a warm front moving into cold air, with a wind from the SE ahead of the front, when the cold air holds out, then the snow doesn't turn to rain. Not had many synoptics like it since, most fronts have moved through quicker.
  18. Been thinking back to 1995 recently and how things turned tail end Feb into March after a mostly mild Atlantic driven winter bar the odd cold snap.. early March 95 brought lots of polar air and snow for some. Not saying this will happen but there are many instances in more recent years when winter has arrived as it is ending after predominantly wet mild season.. some of the most potent cold of the year has happened then 2005, 2006, 2013, 2018...
  19. Shouldn't comment on long range output but that's a colder high than current one with more continental influence. The current high started off in a good position for clear conditions but alas has settled into a very poor position in this respect. Grey gloom to add to the gloomy January feeling..
  20. Nothing overly cold for rest of January but enough chill to prevent a finish in the 7s at least. Likely landing mark low - mid 6s.. there have been a few times recently January has been milder than December, 2018, 2014?, 2007 I think? 2005, 2002.. looking back at stats I was surprised to see 2017 and 2019 coming out at 4 degrees.. both feature as being at the colder end of January's since 1988.. 2017 I simply cant remember anything about certainly no snow or hard frost.. second half last year was frosty though with some cold days. Indeed 22 January's out of total 32 were milder.. how poor has January been for cold weather recently!
  21. I mentioned the persistent warm sst values n Pacific in recent winters coincided with mild here.. so interesting to note if we see colder values into next winter what effect it may have.. that's if it has any or indeed values go cold..
  22. Shock horror met office forecast has snow forecast here Monday night/early hours Tuesday, ditto BBC weather..
  23. A couple more days of anticyclonic gloom.. then a return to the westerlies, with every chance of some wintry precipitation down to relatively low levels in the north early next week - all models are showing quite cold uppers. A split then occurs, UKMO showing a wedge of heights behind the low, which could change the atlantic profile aligning jet on a more NW-SE angle, ECM quickly builds in azores heights but then shows a similiar scenario to UKMO - indeed a negatively tilted trough - not been able to say that all winter. GFS doesn't show the wedge just heights languishing to the south, but in far reaches does shake up the atlantic profile. Will be pleased to see the back of the current high - it has orientated itself in the worse position for anything sunny, cold and frosty, or even especially mild.. Signals are also emerging that the PV is about to undergo a splintering effect, allowing perhaps more ridge/wedge development inbetween low pressures, something that hasn't been able to happen all winter so far.
  24. Anticyclonic gloom doing nothing to lift the spirits. No wind to stir things. Temps not shifting 24 hrs.. this started off a clean cold high but is now a dirty cloud infested one. Never thought I'd say it but looking forward to the Atlantic giving it a boot - it can do one now!
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