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damianslaw

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Everything posted by damianslaw

  1. A word on SST's - I think a warm atlantic favours cold, it creates less of a temp gradient creating cyclogenises, so this is a positive for longer term cold prospects I would think. Back to the hear and now, its a cold unsettled theme for the northern half of the UK, sub 528 dam air most of the time for the next 6 days at least, further south, something a bit milder but not especially so with further rain. Wintry precipitation down to quite low levels for the north for much of the time. As we head into next week, contrasts between ECM and GFS, the ECM wanting low pressure to break through, GFS pulling in a mild southerly feed thanks to euro high. It does look likely there will be a stand off between the atlantic trough and euro high, but the eventual pattern remains very uncertain for the run up to christmas. No coherent signal at present, other than perhaps the atlantic looks like it will run out of steam somewhat next week, and perhaps something drier and more settled may develop. Quite interesting developments. This will be last post on models until Monday, when attention will turn towards likely prospects for the run in to christmas.
  2. Yes we bottom out on the 13th, hold steady until 19th and then see a slow pick up in the evenings, as you say have to wait until early January before the mornings begin to take an upturn. Recent dusks have been very early, dark by 3.30pm, very miserable. The dark days before christmas continue..
  3. Agree winter 2017/2018 wasn't bad overall, it had a few wintry episodes which were well spaced out, to keep it interesting. End of November and opening 10 days of December brought alot of cold frosty weather. The period 26-29th Dec 2017 brought cold weather and we had 2-3 inches of snow on 29th. Third week of January was cold with some snow at times, nothing significant. Latter half of February became progressively colder lots of frost, and then heavy snow on the 28th.
  4. As I always say best just look at the models up to the reliable usually 120-144 hrs tops, and with this range in mind, it remains a predominantly very unsettled outlook, bands of heavy rain with some wintry precipitation down to fairly low levels in the north at times, all brought on by very strong westerly/northwesterly winds. Cold in the north as well, with sub 528 dam air and thicknesses around -3-4 degree mark, which as I say is enough to bring snow down to quite low levels, but unlikely to stick for any length of time below about 250 metres. Further south, temps closer to average slightly above, with any snow reserved for very highest ground only. All very normal for mid December.
  5. Happy with cold and dry conditions, but that is a odd computer program, why just cold and dry in midlands and republic of ireland and wales, and cold in scotland but too mild for snow in the north.. A computer that hasn't a clue it seems. Alas I would be very very happy with a dry cold christmas day, a bit of frost would add a wintry touch as well. We haven't had a cold christmas day since 2010, indeed we've had many a very mild christmas day since, and christmas week as a whole (24 th Dec - I Jan) has largely been dominated by wind rain and mild weather, with the occasional wintry spell (26-28 2004, 27-29 2017), but that's been it. We've been a very short straw over the last 8 christmas periods in this respect. Hoping the atlantic burns itself out over the next 10 days, and that we see fortunes change just in time for christmas.
  6. Hoping this is the case, a dry cold theme over christmas with frost would very good, most recent christmas periods have been woeful, wet and windy with not much good weather for getting out and about. I would like to see a 2008 repeat, when high pressure nosed in just in time for christmas day, it then became colder in the run up to new year, we had no snow, but lots of hard frost and sunshine. We are long overdue a settled christmas.
  7. Lots of weather in the days ahead, bit of everything, heavy rain,strong winds, wintry precipitation for the north possibly some snow for low levels at times, frost as well. All very standard for mid December. As we approach the run up to christmas (17th-20th), models suggesting atlantic coming unstuck against a building of euro heights, which would bring a NW-SE split, and milder air from the south/south west. Where we then go who knows, but there are signs these heights could build quite substantively towards and through the UK, and might settle into a position to bring some cold anticyclonic frosty conditions just as head into christmas proper.
  8. I would keep an open mind on how things might pan out - quite expected though that people's expectations for cold and wintry weather might be low at present given the current model output, and how the last 6 winters have in the main panned out, but things do change, and the unexpected can turn up out of the blue such is the dynamics of our weather. We've been drawn short straws since winter 12/13 it has to be said, barely any sustained wintry weather just the shot of cold at end Feb 2018 to speak of, and doses in early Dec 2017, third week Jan 2018, second half of Jan 2015/early Feb 2015 was quite wintry, but that's about it. Winter 13/14, 15/16, 16/17 and last year were shockingly woeful on the wintry note, preety much devoid, what a flip from the 08/09- 12/13 period, we are due a cold one soon, next winter already looking like it might have the right ingredients.... Back to today, oh dear the grey is back, the drizzle, the murk, no views, the drab - a contrast to last weekend which was wonderfully dry clear cold and frosty. Really detest westerly/south westerly airstreams. It will be a quick descent into darkness this afternoon.
  9. I posted probably about 2 weeks ago, a note to everyone to best just stick to looking at the reliable 144 hrs tops (max) when viewing the charts, and expect changes from run to run at timescales beyond this period. In times of more uncertainty, the reliable becomes shorter sometimes even just 72 hrs. This week has once again proven that this advice should be taken heed of. We've seen change after change in the post 144 hr output and certainly the 240 hr range.. It will be a long winter for those studying run to run at 240 hr time range, becoming frustrated when each run shows something different. Good to look at the longer term output for general signs of trends, but that't all really. Sudden short term developments especially under 'fluid, mobile flows' are highly likely to scupper even the edges of the reliable 120 hr timeframe. Back to the here and now, a typical December pattern, mobile flow, alternating polar maritime/tropical maritime/returning polar maritime airflow. PV building strongly to the NW, (this is the normal base state), steep temp gradient setting up over N Atlantic fuelling the jet, leading to secondary low developments underneath the longwave trough - text book geography pattern. UKMO and FAX charts showing something quite wintry for northern parts by Wednesday, wintry showers returning to high ground. Wind and rain will be the headline features in the days ahead. Hoping things might calm down in time for christmas.
  10. Evidence again that we saw mild zonal atlantic set ups in winter months gone now..
  11. Shouldn't really comment on such long range output, but an interesting synoptical development, could result in a battleground scenario set up just ahead of christmas with energy perhaps splitting and the trough undercutting - all conjecture.. If above verifies it would also be the 9th year on the trot to feature a predominantly mild/very mild atlantic driven run in to christmas.. but then a possible change come christmas itself as has happened on quite a few occasions after such mild run ins, 2008, 2014 and 2017 good examples.
  12. Always good to read your musings - would be interested to note last time we had a weak to moderate la nina, low solar and east qbo, can't be many years that featured all three. I agree that there are no strong drivers so it seems this year, but one feature that remains omni-present is for the jet to be deflected slightly further south than normal and has a meridional tilt to it - which if continues through winter will always expose the UK to some colder air from the north - perhaps nothing sustained, but not a mild fest such as 13/14 or 15/16. Next winter could see at least two of the factors quoted, solar year after minima and might still be holding on to an east QBO or at least only crawling out of one - perhaps a weak-moderate la nina might surface as well..
  13. Summing up the models, for the foreseeable a very unsettled picture with a strong jetstream firing in wind and rain systems, with only very brief respites, long term again suggestion of something a bit colder as we see more in the way of polar maritime air, but still just out of the reliable to say with certainty that we will inject some colder air to the north at least mid-month, the ECM is showing some quite cold upper air which would bring the risk of snow to quite low levels in the north.. but we were here 3 - 4 days ago, looking at similiar timeframes.. All very normal for this time of year.
  14. I think the north of Scotland - Sutherland had a colder winter than 62/63. Here the winter was quite similiar to 78/79, though the cold started 2 weeks earlier.. and January 2010 wasn't as cold as Jan 79.
  15. Much will depend on the extent to which the vortex will show a strong degree of coherence, reading a few other posts and thoughts on the development of the PV, there is suggestion still it isn't about to really get its act together, and hence every chance a strong ridge could build over northern lattitudes to continue to put holes in it.. a bit like a train that needs masses of fuel injection to get it into full gear, but the fuel keeps running out quickly, i.e. short sudden sharp bursts as currently forecast over the next week or so, only to slow down again..
  16. Nearly 10 years on now, from the start of the coldest winter in England and Wales since 1978/79 and in Scotland I think since 1962/63 - correct me if wrong.. I must admit I was rather taken aback at the time at the rate of pace of change in the synoptics around 8-9 Dec, we had gone from a lengthy spell of atlantic westerlies, sometimes very mild southwesterlies in November with copious amounts of rain, to a chillier feed end Nov polar maritime then back to long drawn southwesterlies to start the month, but then suddenly rather unusually high pressure began to build over Norweigien Sea - out of nowhere, combined with the azores high pulsing north into France and then by the 10th/11th it surged through the UK and up to those heights to our NE, changing the pattern markedly. Thereafter we remained locked in a very cold pattern preety much until second week of March, with some slight tempering of the cold second half of January and early Feb - but nothing sustained. I don't remember reading many posts suggesting a very cold winter at the time, I think it was the state of ENSO that had a marked effect on things that year. Oh take me back to the ignorance and events of 10 years ago now.. the run up to christmas was excellent here. Anyone else think the synoptics to our NE around the 9th Dec were odd! and how the azores high migrated to the NE in such a way..
  17. After some welcome brightness end of last week, early this week, we have now plunged into the darkest depths of the year lightwise, wet overcast afternoons quickly descent into pitch black nights.. today saw light levels not really gaining a foothold, and there was a perpetual gloom shrouding everything, a semi-darkness, dusk set in around half 3 and dark by 4pm.. plenty more such days ahead I see.. thankfully only a week to go before light levels in the evening at least bottom out. Welcome to the dark days before christmas!
  18. Certainly expecting the fells to see quite a hefty dollop of snow next week, snowline could yo-yo somewhat, but evaporative cooling will take hold and some low level wet stuff might settle for a time.. First proper snows of the season, little later than usual, normally see a good dose by end of November, only had a slight cover on highest ground so far. A word on today - thoroughly miserable dark day before christmas, went dark about half 3, incessant rain.. reminiscent of so many days before christmas, this really can be a very miserable period weatherwise with the low light levels, thanks goodness we had a few lovely bright sunny crisp days end of last week.
  19. Oh dear thought I'd take a quick peek in this thread, and won't be looking at it again - full of winter over posts... on 5 December, its the same every year.. ' perhaps we should separate it out , a thread for moans and a thread for ramps.
  20. A lively spell of weather on the way, one thing we haven't had much of in recent weeks, barely at all is high winds.. wind will be a very regular feature as we see bands of rain, with some sleet/snow in the north/higher ground rushing through on a re-energised jetstream. Marked temperature contrasts between the rain bands, averaging out near average overall, polar maritime air settling into the north for lengthier periods compared to the south. All very normal for early-mid December, traditionally this is the most 'westerly' period of the year, the least likely time for non-westerly weather.
  21. Always worth watching jetstream profile forecasts, and these currently show a very active jetstream about to kick into gear, but importantly on a generally southerly path with a NW-SE alignment, only shortlived W-E alignment, much of UK on the northern side of the polar front jet as well. So the middle third of December could be a very unsettled rather cold one, and with quite alot of cold air spilling into N Atlantic uppers will have a cold edge to them, wintry precipitation very much order of the day for northern parts.
  22. I'm refraining from commenting on the models at the moment, as we about to enter a very turbulent time, and fully expect sudden short term development to scupper the medium output - reliable timeframe in terms of detail 96hrs tops..
  23. Must correct the Telegraph then! What was the figure for Tulloch Bridge?
  24. The Telegraph said lowest min Sunday morning was -11 degrees Fort William, is this right? Quite unusual for such a location to record lowest min, and not places further inland.
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