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Everything posted by damianslaw

  1. Another appreciably above average month on the cards, but not most likely on the same league as February. Not sure what the mins have been, but I suspect it is these which has held the CET up, maxima haven't been especially high. A marked north-south divide as well this month, the CET zone just outside any colder conditions, so not very representative of how things have been further north. The next few days could see some lower min values though, cancelled out by mild maxima.
  2. I'm still in winter mode, despite it being spring equinox.. dark grey murky skies in March still feel very wintry, light levels lowering around 6pm still. There is a major flick of switch when the clocks go forward though - a rapid shift and change in overall feel of things, just as occurs when the clocks go back, but the difference then is perhaps less marked, given October is generally a dull month with dark grey skies, whereas April often brings bright settled conditions and everything is bursting into life.. suddenly we are plunged into light and life, and it feels very positive, whereas in October there is a gradual fading settling us into winter mode, in March we don't really get that gradual shift in season feeling - at least not in the north half of the UK, which enhances the change in feel. Overall though late April - mid May for me is the period of year that sees the greatest change, spring bursts into full life, everything starts growing madly.. and the sun seems suddenly injected with a hot streak..by mid May we are already reaching near peak sunshine levels, and the sun overhead is as strong as it is in high summer. In general feel though you can't beat late May - mid June, a superb time of year, with the promise of summer ahead, and near peak light levels.
  3. Marked difference between here and Sheffield then, we maxed out at 10 degrees under grey murky skies...
  4. 2013 was the last white easter - very early though 23 March I think, it was notably cold, the cold weather lasted into April. 2008 brought a white easter - again very early one that year. April 30 2016 brought settling snow here at noon with a temp at freezing point... on the back of a fairly average month. A northerly in April can pack a very snowy punch, thanks to the cold uppers associated with arctic air, high lapse rates and evaporative cooling help drop temps markedly.
  5. Signs of the annual washing out of the PV in the longer time frame - and a shift in its position from NE Canada and towards Greenland and eventually N Siberia, hence no surprise to see the models showing a quick return to unsettled conditions as we enter April with a westerly surge, followed by most likely the mid atlantic ridge building north and then either toppling but with some elongation which would allow an easterly, or conversely a strong trough dropping through the UK on a NW-SE trajectory and we see a flow from the north. Either way, a bit of a sea saw ride with the current high, up and down, going down over the weekend, back up again next week, back down again of the week - but perhaps not then back up... with the sea saw moved off its pivot... April traditionally sees the atlantic enter its annual slumber and we look to the north and east for our weather more so than at any other stage in the year.
  6. Compared to the first half of March, the second half more or less looking much more benign, with anticyclonic conditions gaining the upper hand. Nothing especially exciting, rather alot of cloud about next two days with some warmer air aloft, Friday to Monday looking more unsettled for all, and cooler, chilly in the north return to wintry showers and frost, next week promises more in the way of dry weather and hopefully something much brighter, but it doesn't look especially warm, decent enough but nothing exceptional. Further ahead - signs of something colder from the north as we start April, very common in April to have northerly shots..
  7. A change to much more settled weather is on the way, courtesy of the azores high ridging north thanks to a shift in the jetstream, the UK on the southern side, hence a milder drier sunnier feed - could be quite a bit of cloud though for western locations. Longer term - I would not at all be surprised to see all that bottled up cold air over the arctic pouring into the mid-latitudes and indeed our way - all very normal service in April, northerlies and easterlies become far more likely in April and May.
  8. A bright start to the day in contrast to yesterday's gloom fest. The fells have a white cover, not sure snowline looks about 400 metres. An air frost expected tonight.
  9. CET continues to hold at a higher level than I had anticipated - lack of cold minima the prime reason I feel thanks to cloud and rain. Next week will bring mild maxima but I suspect minima will be preety low balancing things out. Still a comfortable finish above the average now seems the form horse.
  10. The far NE of the region looks like it was just under cold enough uppers combined with evaporative cooling to enable snow to fall at least for a short while. Here uppers were too high and the precipitation has been rain all the way, and I suspect only highest ground is seeing snow, above about 600 metres - and a slushy wet mix there as well.
  11. Echoing thoughts above - a miserable wet Saturday morning, incessant rain and strong winds. Only plus point it is preety mild, had the low tracked about 150 miles further south, then a cold wet sleety mess would be falling from the sky. Tomorrow hopefully will bring some welcome brighter sunnier skies inbetween the sharp downpours. March so far has been very wet and not especially sunny. Next week does though promise much more drier and sunnier weather and it should feel very pleasant under much lighter winds. Not a fan of March at all, one of my least favourite months, roll on April and the clocks going forward.
  12. Nearly a year on from what turned out for many to be a very snowy St Patricks Day, thanks to a long drawn bitterly easterly feed, the second in the space of just over 2 weeks.. High pressure quickly nosed in on the scene after a relatively mild spell of weather, with cold uppers on its eastern flank pulled westwards into the UK. There was a marked change in temperatures from the 16th, many places in double figures, yet one day later struggled to get above freezing. Heavy bands of snow showers clumped together, with longer periods for many. SW parts especially badly hit I remember. Here we had a few light snow showers until late afternoon, around 5pm the snow set in and continued on and off through the night, depositing abotu 3-4 inches by morning. The snow was very powdery and glistened everywhere. Sunday was another very cold day, temps maxed about 2 degrees, and the snow stuck - followed by a very cold night. Unusual to have two severe easterly outbreaks in March in the space of just over 2 weeks. All thanks to the SSW in early Feb. Early April brought another wintry blast to the north.
  13. The Met Office probably right to cover themselves at this stage, chance southern parts of the area i.e. region covered by this thread might just see rain, away from north Northumberland, but equally if the low tracks a bit further south - due to less deepening then more modest levels across whole region might hold onto some snow for a lengthier period. Still away from high ground, any snow that does settle will be slushy and wet and probably quickly thaw as milder uppers invade for a short time. The same day last year brought significant snowfall..
  14. Perhaps not quite the climb down I was expecting this week coming, thanks to much cloud cover which will prevent low mins, maxima will hold up in the 7-11 degree range over CET zone, high 6's by end of the week.
  15. Mmm despite the models showing perhaps a greater influence from atlantic ridging next week, I remain less than convinced there will anything more than weak temporary ridge features, and these never getting a hold on NW regions - far too much energy in the jet thanks to the significant cold uppers over arctic regions, SE parts as ever in these situations will see some longer lasting drier milder periods at times. Rapid cyclogenesis.. In the short-term very unsettled disturbed weather, conditions more akin to late autumn/early winter - but we have been spared such conditions for much of the winter. I type this hearing the rain once again battering against the window - a very wet period ahead, here.. Cumbria prime spot for flooding - not a good prospect! - fells could see in the region of 160mm in next 3-4 days, on the back of what has been a very 10 days or so.. its these set ups that cumulatively cause serious flooding in these parts..
  16. Oh dear I'm in the middle of four weather warnings next four days! Heavy rain tonight and into tomorrow morning, gales force winds tuesday evening and into wednesday, then another very wet period Thursday into Friday. The ground is sodden here, and it won't take much for widespread flooding.. we have been spared much flooding over winter season, but March is certainly making up for things - its turning into a notably wet one. Southern fells look primed for orographic rainfall brought on by the SW wind. A word on this morning - very wintry, snowline down to 150 metres.
  17. A sleety snowy mix outside, might see a temporary cover overnight if persistant enough, certainly cold enough!
  18. Thanks for the above - not seen it before.
  19. A volatile day! A burst of very heavy snow late morning, but didn't last, thereafter wave after wave of heavy sleet and hail, leaving a covering at times brought on by very gusty winds - making it feel very cold indeed. Only limited bright spells. Haven't had any lightening or thunder though. Plenty more wintry showers expected overnight - whether we see any proper snow I'm doubtful. The fells are cloaked white. A stormy turbulent week ahead.
  20. The big white snowflakes lasted only 5 minutes, turned back to sleety rain, then some lighter snowflakes - alas no cover here. Waiting the clearance to see the snowline level - suspect about 300 metres. Later this evening and overnight probably brings further snow showers to low levels.
  21. March is often a very volatile month, can switch from winter to spring at a flick. The atlantic and arctic are at there coldest now, and an airstream from between NW and SE can pack a cold punch still. I always wait until the end of March before I feel the balance shifts to spring proper. March is like September - a transitional month, but often a hangover of the season just gone.
  22. CET values will continue to drop over coming days so suspect we will be in the low-mid 6s by this time next week. Too early to call how things might pan out later in the month, might be a warm up, but unlikely will be enough to return a notably above average month. I do think the balance is probably in favour of something slightly above normal, much of the CET zone staying out of any notably cool uppers, different in the north, where a slightly below average month might occur.
  23. Thanks - the 4th seems to tie in with how I remember things, I thought it might have been later in the month, but remember it being middle of week.
  24. Big white snowflakes now, hopefully will see a covering before it peters out.
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