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damianslaw

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Everything posted by damianslaw

  1. Good reading these. Snippet on record warm temps Antarctica makes interesting reading. One theory caused by the planets moving!.. the earth's climate started warming 10 years ago but don't know why...
  2. The very mild nights are certainly helping to keep CET levels up, and consistent maxima in the 19-22 degree range. Had the weather of the last 3 weeks occured first 3 in August - a major heatwave would have ensued.. Cooler conditions forecast from 22nd onwards, back down to the seasonal average, though I suspect southern parts could see slightly above average temps, nightime minima will be notably cooler in the north under chilly uppers. Might produce first air frost of the season..
  3. Trouble is we have heights far to the west as well, and the pattern is meridional, the trough is destined to dig deep south between the two ridges. It's a highly 'meridional' flow. Increasingly colder air is wrapped under the southern flank of those heights to the east.. I guess if the ridge to the west moves further west we could end up with the trough further west and pull up a southerly, but look at the jestream it is digging far to the south.. The trough may split in situ though, end product could be a cyclonic flow with some warm uppers mixed in from the south. An interesting outlook after weeks of nothingness.
  4. Not the best of starts to Saturday. Rather damp a burst or two of light rain, shortlived. Low cloud shrouding the fells. The warm front looks like it will stick to Cumbria all day, not expecting much in the way of brightness. Still very mild though. This evening and overnight forecast to bring more persistant rain for a time, how much remains to be seen. It's been a very dry 4 weeks, could do with some heavy rain now, help to replenish the reservoirs and rivers.. Autumn looks like it is starting in the new week, bang on cue after the equinox.
  5. Tomorrow quite probably last day of the lingering summer feeling for many, low 20s maxima, sunshine, light winds and dry weather. light is rapidly diminishing now, and that in itself snatches away any last lingering vestige of summer. Come Sunday many will be under grey cloud and possible heavy rain temps back firmly in the teens. The new week looks like being one that brings a significant change in phyche, promise of much cooler and unsettled conditions, and some wind - gosh its been so calm for so long forgot what any wind feels like.. Autumn is finally on its way!
  6. Perhaps not zonal, but meridional certainly so, and that has been the theme of 2021, anticyclonic followed by cyclonic/meridional and back again.. reason for the alternating cold and warm spells.. My calandar says Autumn begins on 22 September, and going by ECM/UKMO this evening, bang on cue autumn looks like it starting on time! Some cold uppers invading northern parts possibly by end of next week.
  7. By late October a northerly can pack a wintry punch.. 2008 evidence. Indeed by early October a bit of wintriness on high ground can easily occur, but agree late September away from very highest ground does not normally bring a wintry feel. The arctic undergoes rapid cooling now regardless if SSTs.. and a deep seated northerly in October will always feel cold.
  8. Whilst available to view.. these charts should come with major prone to error disclaimer.. 10th October is some 24 days away!
  9. There are signs now the pattern wants to go into a trough dominated one. We have a warm front moving across the UK next 48 hrs that turns in on itself due to forcing from both west and east. Quite unusual and an indication a pattern change is afoot with heights coming unstuck and the UK becoming a trough magnet. Its been the theme of 2021 anticyclonic followed by trough/cyclonic.. zonal flow has been absent..
  10. Can't remember the last time we've had such a long benign spell.. barely anything notable to talk about in ages.. 2021 as a whole here in the Lake District has been exceptional for lack of extreme weather. No major flooding, storms, significant heat or cold bar a few odd days here and there. For once the weather has taken a headline back seat..
  11. First half of September a month too late.. had it happened first half of August a real scorcher would have ensued..
  12. If today's models verify the CET should take a rapid fall.. on average latter part of the month does see a significant drop.
  13. Yes an injection of polar air would certainly blast any late summer feeling. Come the equinox I'm in full autumn mode and summer is a distant memory..
  14. Backs up my post above.. look to the NW.. should have said meridional rather than zonal..
  15. Ah but the wheel has been unlocked by then and the main forcing is the developing PV to the NW.. that ridge will be forced west, all eyes to the NW..see the dig in the jet.. a more zonal pattern.
  16. Thanks. Oh yes remember 2005 being very dry and often settled and warm. October 2005 was also very mild and dry.. the theme continued until early Nov, followed by much colder weather.
  17. Memory fading.. thanks for info. Trying to think of comparable Septembers.. 2016 possibly? We've had many very warm Septembers 8n recent years, rapidly becoming an extension of summer and often warmer than June..sometimes much more so. Gives credence to the notion autumn doesn't start until the equinox.
  18. Did September 2006 not do this as well a very warm dry first third, cooler wetter end.. once we go past the equinox the tables often turn..
  19. I quoted yesterday how unusual the output was with the block holding back what appears to be an invigorated Atlantic with early strong PV. At this time of year the balance should be tipping firmly in favour of the Atlantic winning out. No surprise to see the models flip today then.. could all be a blip.. but I'll be surprised if any backtrack now. We've had a very long period of an absent Atlantic by and large.. time running out..
  20. Mmm not the most inspiring of outlooks.. all rather humdrum.. come on Autumn get going!
  21. With a front moving across the UK, why are the forecasts saying dry outlook, some are, some are not.. mmm might they backtrack for the coming weekend, could be wet in places.. I'm struggling to find much to comment on about the weather at the moment, as always the case at this time of year it seems, year in year out..
  22. SSTs NE Pacific were just as warm last autumn as now, and we ended up with at least some cold weather at times in the winter, and before the SSW, Late Dec/early Jan was quite cold.. and early December.
  23. Was out walking last weekend, and many waterfalls were devoid of hardly any water, Sour Milk Ghyll in Easedale a prime example.
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