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damianslaw last won the day on November 29 2015

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  1. Sorry to keep this discussion alive- it is the model thread, however, yes brought whiteout conditions here, we had 18 inches, much of the county was closed off.
  2. damianslaw

    Best and worst winters

    Overall winter 09/10 best for me - consistent cold from the 10th December onwards, long run of days with snow lying, despite no especially large falls. Winter 95/96 a close second, December was excellent, with a 7 day run of ice days from 24th, again no large snowfall totals, and there was some mild weather in the immediate run up to christmas and the first few days. January salvaged by a very cold snowy period 21st onwards. February brought 18 inches of snow, and persistant cold weather though a rapid thaw set in around the 9th. Enjoyed winter 08/09 very episodic, cold start, mild run up to christmas, then very cold last week, first 10 days Jan, average remainder Jan, cold first half Feb, very mild second half. Reason I enjoyed it was because it came on the back of a very long run of average/mild or very mild winters since 96/97, only 00/01 felt like a proper winter, 01/02 fizzled in the new year - an odd one that!, 05/06 promised much but never really delivered, and 04/05 brought cold easterlies far too late, and they were half-baked. I don't recall the winters before 87/88 that well, but do remember quite a bit of cold snowy weather at times mid 80s. Winter 12/13 was preety decent overall, last winter not bad, at least it felt like winter. We've had some shockers recently,notably 06/07, 07/08, 13/14- the worse!, 15/16 - not far behind.
  3. There were hints yesterday the models were trending towards a more resilient blocking high to our east scenario later next week, alas, they are all very much firm on this, and the timings are well within the reliable - will we continue to see them holding the atlantic at bay for longer than first thought - we shall see. A 1035mb scandi high is not to be sniffed at, the atlantic isn't in super-charge mode, so trough disruption and stalling looks likely Thursday/Friday. Too early to start speculating about snow, but the continental feed and lower dewpoints will certainly aid development of a wintry mix along the stalling front. Energy looks like splitting to our south, which will help maintain a more continental feed for longer, however, it will most probably be only a matter of time before the atlantic moves in.. but possibly not a westerly trajectory, a couple of days of westerly influence might ensue, but its notable how both ECM and GFS want to sink low heights south through the UK with heights building to the north, more so NW, so a cold northerly interlude could develop. A good day for cold snow lovers.
  4. Good post - perhaps today marks a downward point - and from here on in, the models and trends will begin to increasingly point to ever colder synoptics more likely to embed themselves - as par for the course at this juncture at such an early stage in the winter - patience being the watchword, frustrating right now, but all quite normal. I like cold and snowy conditions pre-chrismas, but the statistics show, more likely to see such conditions in March and indeed April.. I blame christmas!
  5. Definate trend through the day - heights to the east putting up more of a resistance to the trough - conversely it is shown as being much sharper and prone to disruption - will we see the trend continue? even odds I say..
  6. The theme of the year has been for the atlantic to hit the buffers against blocking to our east, currently we are seeing the trough inching further east than in many a recent month, but hardly with any real force, at a time of year when it should be all steam ahead, early Dec is renowned for its westerlies.. Alas lets wait and see whether it disrupts next week or holds its way into the N Sea, against the block. Notable how the GFS and UKMO are showing a more resilient block to our NE, just within the reliable. Will ECM follow suit?
  7. Again can't delete above - apologise. Anyhow, both GFS and ECM are now showing the easterlies never really making it into the UK, alas no real cold in the reliable - quite disappointing. Instead, lots of wind and rain - not inspiring at all! However, they both show a southerly tracking jet, and the trough aligned on a slightly negative tilt, more so ECM, and as long as we continue with this position, then the north at least will be prone to colder conditions with I suspect snow down to relatively low levels as we move through mid-month. ECM showing northern half of UK in sub 528 dam air, under a slack air pressure, ripe territory for evaporative cooling - so all not lost. Traditionally winter doesn't tend to kick in until just before christmas, sometimes thereafter, and this year looks the same now. On a positive note, increasing signals events in upper atmosphere could be conducive to some proper cold in the not too distant future.. (stratospheric developments).
  8. Indeed you don't need deep cold uppers at this time of year to produce snowfall, heavy precipitation in 528 dam air, can do the business - thanks to evaporative cooling. Yes such synoptics tend to produce the wet snow stuff, an often temporary affairs, but significant amounts can fall with very modest height.
  9. Yes - me too, a cold run up to christmas is something I look forward too - but alas not had one of them since 2010. However, I'd exchange a mild run in for a cold christmas week.. we shall see. The Iberian ridge is going to do no favours for allowing something colder, if it continues to sit in current situ - need it to shift westwards to allow a more pronounced negatively titled trough and possible northerly with heights building to our west - not out of the question, there are very fine margins at the moment, between predominantly cold, or a more fluctuating cold/milder pattern. This is a tricky set up to forecast accurately beyond about 5 days, expect lots of chopping and changing at the 144hr timerange - ripe territory for sudden short-term developments making a mockery of medium term forecasting - 'where did that northerly spring from?' could be a watchword..
  10. Oh dear today and yesterday are the sort of days that do no-one good at all - low cloud, dank dreary, very wet at times - perpetual darkness at the darkest period of the year. Alas, we often suffer such days in December unfortunately. Tomorrow looking equally miserable, Saturday now not much better either - Sunday hopefully should bring some brighter cleaner colder skies thanks to polar maritime air. These are the dark days before christmas - depressing weather!
  11. Indeed cold zonality as opposed to mild zonality appears to be the form horse as we enter mid-month, which would bring a mix of rain/sleet/snow and temps around average, bit colder in the north with increased chance of snow with altitude - scottish ski resorts would be very happy with such a set up.
  12. Models suggesting the atlantic will have enough gusto to kick aside heights to our NE, a shortlived settled cold spell, preety average standard stuff, before wind and rain returns later next week, definate wintry mix in the north, anywhere with a bit of height could see quite a bit of snow, as the jet along a NW-SE axis, sub 528 dam air - evaporative cooling will come into play. After a couple of mild days, things turning much more seasonal Sunday onwards, no deep freeze, but wintry in feel.
  13. Many a time I say this - but always worth looking at the Jetstream profile forecasts, for idea on where low pressure may decide to position itself. Today's run shows a southerly tracking fairly moderate zonal jet for all of next week, becoming a bit more diffuse and erratic -shredded is the word as we enter the following week (but that is a long way off). The GFS 6Z run doesn't tie in with the profile - as it suggest a SW-NE position, no strong heights to our north - contrary to what the jetstream forecast is showing. The main player next week looks to be strong heights to our north east, the extent of height development directly to our north is key, there are signs a ridge could extend out from the main feature to our north and head towards Greenland, if this occurs, then expect a much weaker shallower low development feature which will attempt to encroach SW part of the country, but quickly sink into France - thus we will maintain a cold continental SE flow. If the ridge doesn't develop strongly, then the next plausible evolution would be heights to sink slightly SE into eastern europe which would open the door to a more concerted atlantic attack - but equally a set up dispositioned to trough disruption with heights building to our north and possibly NW. Either way, the theme of 2018 looks like continuing - no atlantic zonal onslaught, instead fine lines between something much colder and wintry, or perhaps akin to what we have now as we enter the run up to christmas. Longer term - further atlantic derailment and hitting the buffers looks very likely.
  14. damianslaw

    Met office 16 to 30 day outlook

    The Met Office forecast shouts to me - a predominantly southerly tracking jetstream for the weeks ahead, low pressure and fronts stalling and disrupting to our SW, against consistent heights to our north east. Battleground scenario territory - which could mean some very marked temp contrasts from SW to NE, where the lines are drawn potential for significant wintry mix of precipitation - anywhere with height on the boundary could see copious amounts of snow. Subtle shifts in position of the frontal features will result in very different conditions either side. A very interesting month ahead I feel, with a constant tug of war between cold and mild, and the cold gaining the upper hand mostly away from far SW and W.
  15. A cold dank winters day - how December Days should be. A cold frosty start, cloud moved in quickly and temps maxed out at a lowly 4 degrees - misty murky conditions all day. A cold evening, before rain moves in for the morning. A poor dark wet winters morning ahead - becoming mild again.