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damianslaw last won the day on November 29 2015

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  1. damianslaw

    July to November 1993: cold

    Remember this period very well, I had a paper round at the time, and many a cold wet morning! It was devoid of any significant milder than average weather and at times brought significantly below average temps for lengthy periods. Mid October was notably cold, and preety wintry, with harsh frosts and wintry showers. Late November brought widespread snow here, and some very cold days and severe frost lasting all day under freezing fog. September I remember being preety miserable with some cold wet days. December as well was cold at times especially second half with a wintry spell, we had snow showers on christmas day. The period 1990-1994 brought quite chilly autumns overall, with some cold Septembers and Octobers, and I remember seeing quite a bit of snow in October on the high tops.
  2. A very average September now looks on the cards - feels about right, a bit of warmth at times, and a bit of chilliness, but overall preety normal.
  3. A generally settled outlook away from the north which will be under the influence of an atlantic flow. Becoming warm for a time mid-week, before cooler air moves down from the north for the weekend. A pleasant usable spell of weather for the south, but some rain or showers in the north Wednesday and possibly later in the week. As we enter October - no major change, strong signal core of heights will ebb and wane over the UK, eventually advecting west and a quite likely northerly plunge could develop, but may take a bit of time. I can see why some of the models are suggesting a cool October.
  4. Frost watch time over the next 2 nights, could be quite a few first grass frosts/ground frosts of the season at least. Looking further ahead, early October could bring first widespread air frosts..
  5. Quite a cooldown on the cards, Sunday will bring a notably cool CET value, with well below average maxima followed by low mins as cold air digs in from the north. A decent shot we might come in below 14 degrees.
  6. Mmm not sure where your summer returns stems from, the high pressure will be ridging through under chilly uppers, frost likely and suppressed temps, and none of the models showing a significant warm up next week.
  7. Will wait until end of the month before posting my guess. Notable how many of the warmest Octobers on record have occurred in the past 20 years or so. We've had a real mix of Octobers in recent years, but one notable aspect has been the tendency for very mild ends, some very mild Halloweens indeed. I like October to trend colder throughout, with the first air frost by the third week, and a spell of high pressure frosty nights, and foggy mornings before the month is out, with the traditional stormy end and the first smattering of shortlived white stuff on the high tops.- a shot of arctic air always welcomed. More often than not, October can see the atlantic wage supreme with mild murky dank wet westerly/southwesterly airstreams - think 2013, not a fan of such months. I would be happy with a Oct like 2008, 2010 and 2012 with all brought a potent northerly clean blast.
  8. damianslaw

    Autumn 2018

    The housemartins roosting in our eaves were out and about still on Sunday night, but not last couple of nights, so think they have flown off as well - possibly sensing the change to very windy autumnal weather.
  9. September certainly kicking into life at the moment - a proper blast of stormy wet weather we are in, short-term developments galore, making short-term forecasting a headache - where will see the strongest winds and heaviest rain. Reason for the explosion of low heights shown in most models this time tomorrow, is the marked temp profile developing over the UK, we have some very mild tropical air over southern UK with cold uppers digging in from the north, along the boundary a waving front and then bingo a rapid deepening low pressure. The main feature will be the persistant heavy rain, N Wales, Pennines and Lake District will see a deluge, localised flooding - and memories of the dry late spring - early summer will seem a lifetime ago.. Friday will see most of the UK in a chilly NW airstream, Saturday calmer and drier for most, and still chilly, Sunday up in the air, but increasing signal another bout of very windy very weather for most, and some very chilly air digging in behind - will feel more like late Oct/early Nov, some wintry precipitation for Scottish Highlands and a significant risk of a widespread frost for north Sunday night followed by high pressure. Lots going on - very autumnal.
  10. Models going for a general cool down from Friday, marked in the north, courtesy of colder uppers from the north - next week up in the air, if heights build in from the east and over the UK, we could see some very chilly minima and under what won't be especially warm uppers, maxima will probably only hit average figures, given the sun is weakening now.
  11. A turbulent spell of weather ahead just in time for the Autumn equinox - first gales of the autumn, very seasonal. Heavy bouts of rain on Thursday and gales tomorrow, will pull down a number of leaves - longer term, might see first proper frosts of the season as well.
  12. A very average first half to September then, but a marked warm up is on the cards, so wouldn't be surprised to be in the high 15s by this time next week, thereafter we might see a return of chilly nights. Difficult to call just how things might pan out eventually.
  13. Another low min for September - Tackley must in a frost hollow, to think in some winters, many places struggle to achieve a lower mins. I'm always quite surprised at how low mins get get too at this time of year given the right conditions, you'd think they should conversely be much lower in similiar synoptics in depths of winter - but quite often comparatively speaking not the case. Little chance of air/ground frost the foreseeable though as we import very humid muggy uppers in a tropical maritime airstreams, might be talking about local high min records next week. Could be quite a topsy turvy September if we then see an anticylonic spell with further likelihood of frost.
  14. Oh dear its the first proper gloomy very wet evening here of the new season, a dull dark sky descending at half 6pm, dark by quarter to 8, and incessant rain - and another 10 hours of it.. oh and its a Monday evening as well - feel like hibernating!