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damianslaw last won the day on November 29 2015

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  1. La Nina forcing might well suggest such a scenario we shall see. I'm going to refrain from model watching until Sunday, as I just think the margin of error at the moment is exceptionally high, and its not worth drawing any conclusions from the models until then. In the meantime we have a couple of very pleasant autumnal days to enjoy with frost, and sunshine..
  2. Important to keep an eye on developments over the eastern USA seaboard over the days ahead, as it will be developments here which will influence conditions over here as we end the month and enter December - an amplified flow would aid some warm air advection through west greenaldn, and this will allow ridging from the northern heights south through the mid atlantic which conversely would enable a deep trough to anchor down through scandi - I mentioned this potential scenario occuring next week yesterday, and the general set up looks pre-desposed toward such an eventual scenario, but may take a little longer than perhaps it looked to take hold. I certainly do not see us staring at a lengthy westerly atlantic onslaught, far from it..
  3. What a difference an evening makes, this thread was alive this time yesterday, and now we have a GFS 18z showing the complete opposite, its not called the crazy run for anything, but still people seem to get hung up on it - its either the saviour or the enemy for some. As I said expect further twists and turns and treat all models with much room for error within the very short-timescale at present - we have an unusual synoptic set up, that the models are going to struggle to get to grips with. Indeed the reliable timeframe over the next week or so, may only be 72 hrs tops.. making any medium term forecasting fraught with difficulty. (I feel I might need to keep repeating myself over the days ahead - some never learn..).
  4. Another day - and still more flip flopping from the models well within the reliable timeframes - end result, we are still non-the wiser how things may ultimately play out next week. There are very fine margins being played with, as others have said all depends on the position of the shortwave feature out west, and how this engages with the trough, will it disrupt, will it be absorbed into the trough. GFS is yo-yoing all over the place, ECM has reverted back to something colder, UKMO siding more with ECM, won't be surprised to see GFS 18Z show something similiar to last nights again. And the answer is we won't know for certain until well probably Sunday at this rate - can we wait another 3 days of this.. It is nowcasting and short-term development time, history has shown how sudden changes within 24 hrs can make a major difference to prospects thereafter,and I think this is one of those cases. Might be best to refrain from looking at the models for 3 days and then just accept what will be will be i.e something milder and wetter, something a bit in the middle, something colder and wintry. Could be some interesting marked differences from north to south next week. Remember high pressure in winter is much denser than moist tropical air, and significant blocks wherever they sit, have a habit of being greater force.
  5. UKMO FAX charts always worth looking at in these situations. Latest run this evening, shows the frontal feature programmed to attack from the atlantic taking longer to make inroads, indeed its a backtrack, with rain only making it into SW England late on Sunday with most of the UK enjoying a dry fine day - going against latest BBC forecasts. On Monday it does show the front moving through, but it then looks like a stalling frontal situation out to our west, with the front forced to simply fall apart.. as pressure builds through the country.
  6. Mild v cold winter weather

    Most 80's christmas were mild, only 1981 was a cold snowy one. 1984 and 1985 saw cold conditions in the run up to New Year but not christmas itself. It could well have been 83, 86, 87 or even 88. Indeed the only really cold December of the 80's was 1981.
  7. Important to focus on the near-term prospects, i.e. what the models are showing with regard to this weekend's high pressure/ridge, there are signals it will take a more north-south elongation, this would enable warm air advection to take place to our west, and crucially cold air advection to our east, and with the main forcing coming from the trough to our NE, the atlantic low pressure system will have no-where to go but head south and be squeezed out. If heights take on a more NE-SW alignment this will allow the atlantic to have a greater chance of building in. Very very fine margins.
  8. Not that it really helps clear the waters, but the jetstream profile forecasts, very much show a split jet flow, coming unstuck - disrupting with energy dissipating, they suggest heights building through the country this weekend will be quite robust to fight off any atlantic attack - it makes sense the atlantic has been in quiet slumber for some weeks now and its base state remains the same. Longer term, hard to decipher, but there looks a signal to develop heights to the NE with the UK sat on the colder side of the jet, once a deep trough anchors down through scandi.
  9. Mild v cold winter weather

    Not a fan of mild sunny weather in December or January, but by late February it is very welcome after months of drab dull weather, the increasing light levels and higher stronger sun by then gives you a hopeful feeling and a sense of spring just being around the corner. A sunny mild day in December isn't much use really, going dark at 4pm, what is the point.. If it has to be mild in Dec and Jan I would rather it be wet with it, giving things a more seasonal although gloomy feel. The dark days before christmas can be quite evocative, especially if the mild produces lots of misty foggy conditions, and we have the christmas lights to brighten things up. Don't like mild sunny and windy days either - warm winds feel odd in the depth of winter. I remember mid Dec 2015 producing a balmy sunny very windy day, maxes of 15-16 degrees yet it was blowing a gale nearly, all very odd. My preference is for cold, doesn't have to be snowy, just cold with a lingering frost, bright skies are welcomed in such weather, cold cloudy days also feel seasonal, cold foggy days more so, cold snowy days the best though! more so if they come courtesy of arctic airstreams, rather than polar continental, which tend to be cloudier with poorer visibility.
  10. Welcome to SACRA

    Yes to experience that first foot in crunchy fresh snow. There was a dusting again on some fells last Sunday. Last November brought alot of snow later in the month to higher ground - will it happen again...
  11. February 2005 - return of the easterly!

    Gosh wished I'd experienced that event here, rather than in the NE, where only a couple of inches fell at best. We haven't had many falls of snow over 10 inches in the last 30 years or so. Indeed only three times I think, the infamous 5/6 Feb 96 snowfall, and one on the 23 Feb 1994 where about a foot or so fell and as you quote March 06. We came close in Dec 2009, and again in Jan 2013, about 8 inches. Most snowfalls have been in the 1-4 inch range, nothing special - we missed out in March 2013, there really was a major change in the space of just 10 miles, here we had a measly 2 inches! just too far north and east.
  12. Fading memories of 2010

    Good photos. Yes it was the depth and longevity of cold that was the most impressive feature, rather than snowfall. Derwent Water froze over completely, along with some of the smaller lakes, same as in Jan 2010. Even the River Kent in Kendal froze over from bank to bank in parts, a rare feat - especially noteworthy given the River is reportedly the fastest flowing in England! December 2009 brought heavier snowfall here, but Dec 2010 brought a white christmas, a surprise 1 and half hour snowfall late morning, perfect timing.
  13. Lets see how dominant La Nina might be this winter - it is just one factor after all, others could cancel it out. If it was that easy to predict a season based on ENSO we should all go home now. Too many other variable factors at play.
  14. Posting my last post from yesterday again here 'Expect more flip flopping from the models in the next few runs, wouldn't be at all surprised to see many showing high pressure settling in and over the UK once again, jetstream profile looks rather ragged and broken, suggesting ridge development and heights will ridge through the country, low heights becoming squeezed and diffuse'. Alas the models are doing just this, GFS has reverted back to high pressure building over the country, so to did ECM midnight run, now its gone off on a SW fest. UKMO appears to be siding more with GFS. Far too much uncertainty at the moment to put any faith in any model beyond a very short timeframe of just 72 hours..
  15. Expect more flip flopping from the models in the next few runs, wouldn't be at all surprised to see many showing high pressure settling in and over the UK once again, jetstream profile looks rather ragged and broken, suggesting ridge development and heights will ridge through the country, low heights becoming squeezed and diffuse.