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damianslaw last won the day on November 29 2015

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About damianslaw

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    Windermere 120m asl

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  1. Its had its moments, there has been a number of decent air frosts, and the last 2 weeks of January and opening three days of February brought a consistent period of below average temps, and we had an ice day on the 31st Jan, and nearly one on the 30th, with a number of days with snowfall - so overall not devoid of wintry weather. I agree though it has been exceptionally benign, much like 2016/17 which was also a very calm one, with no storms, that winter brought less snow and frost as well. Indeed since April its been exceptionally benign, we will see a switch par for the course, lets hope not in time for summer! - we've been in a calm period since the infamous December of 2015 overall.. an abrupt sudden change might quickly occur.
  2. Good logical thinking.. never cast aside the opposite of what is expected to happen happening then! Its all about the 'forcings' for me, you can often gain a sense of how things might pan out, by watching how forcings develop, which route and formation they take, take the current pattern, all the forcing is from the atlantic, pounding down on the ridge, it will eventually win out, and the set pattern is a sinking ridge scenario - this is borne out by the fact central core heights don't look like repositioning much from current position - the key player is the northern arm of the jet, set to power through on a more southerly path - this is the key 'forcing' feature and the dominant force. The hard bit is picking out the dominant force, and accurately pinpointing how it will impact on us. Sometimes its easier to pick these out and predict there behaviour than at other times. Long may the weather continue to make fools of us all!
  3. The above is a bust then... likelihood of impacts from cold weather is greater than normal, particularly earlier in the 3-month period. Lets see what there March-May forecast is - but maybe not.. I've decided not to look at any long range forecast again.
  4. Just the one decent winter walk so far this season (winter doesn't end in the fells until April in my book..), that was on the 2 February, which was an excellent day with the fells plastered in deep powder snow, calm conditions. Alas the snow was quickly cast aside on the 3/4th, and there has been no fresh snow since, and the fells are looking very brown. A northerly can quickly turn them white well into April still.. Back to today, not a brilliant one here, much better than yesterday though which brought significant rainfall all the way through. It stayed overcast until early afternoon, with a clearance by about 3pm, hazy sunshine to end the day, but quite chilly still, temps maxed about 11 degree just, 8 degrees by 6pm with fog forming, and a chilly night ahead - it is still February. However, the next few days promise very fine fayre, much will depend on how much cloud we see, tomorrow should be sunny, Saturday hazy sun, cloudy later, Sunday might be quite overcast, before clear skies and sun returns early next week. What will be notable is the expected very mild maxima, not dropping below 12 degree throughout, tomorrow might see 15 degrees, Sat about 14 degrees, Sunday 13 possibly 12 degrees, Monday back up to 13/14 degrees, might squueze out another 15 degrees Tuesday, these are temps we would do well to see in late April/early May, and indeed in some years don't. However, its all too far early for me, and I can't get enthused at all with it.. a months time then yes, but not late February.
  5. damianslaw

    Winter 2018/19

    Not surprised given we have a Foehn effect, but I'm increasingly questioning how easily we seem to be breaking date records and month records, similiar synoptics will have occurred in years gone by.. the sun isn't any warmer is it? - I'm beginning to doubt the accuracy of yesteryear readings..
  6. A balmy continental spell ahead - if this was summer - a major heatwave, alas it is only late February, but still temperatures will be on a par with average temps experienced in early May. It will do wonders for spring bulbs, bringing a very early spring in complete contrast to last year, when we had a very delayed one. It does feel very Feb 1998.. Longer term - strong signals the atlantic will break through as March arrives with temperatures back down to average, which will after a week of unusual mildness feel chilly. Every chance we might pull down some colder air from the north/north west as move through the first week of the new month - all very normal. Had we not such a strong northern polar front jet and strong PV lobe over NE Canada, we could have been staring at a notably cold spell similiar to this time last year, with trough disruption and easterlies then able to penetrate - we are not far off such a scenario, alas too much energy is going to ride over the top of the high, forcing it to collapse. You can see why the Met Office were suggesting chance of colder easterlies/north easterlies, but they haven't come off - bad luck this year! On a personal note, this current impending spell is about a month too early for me, I can't get enthused about it, too early in the season, darkness setting in before 6pm still - hence I've not been in the thread much past week or so and won't until we kick this spell aside. On this note, goodbye winter 18/19 promised much, teased far too much, gave back very little. We are entering March-May soon, when unusual synoptics can pop up out of nowhere, spring is the most tricky season to predict, and its the most interesting season in this respect, when the probability of the atlantic winning out is at its lowest, I'm hoping for more varied affair than we've become accustomed too over recent months, when static patterns have long tired my patience.
  7. We aren't actually that far off the same type of synoptics we had at the end of Feb last year, WAA through mid atlantic, deep long wave trough out west, and an initial surge of mild southerlies.. Alas - we seem destined not to see a pronounced easterly, not enough cold pooling to the NE putting a force on the ridge, with more energy in the northern arm of the jet..Looking at the synoptics shown end of Feb on paper we should be under a cold continental airmass - alas, the origins of the ridge are from med.. there is no cold feed from anywhere. Would be good to have some experienced voices speculating over longer-term drivers as we move into March, any signals to shift us out of a protracted spell of weather that has seen the ridge dominate - unusually so. Indeed we had a 3 week omega block end Dec into Jan, and we have another one now, almost in the same place- highly unusual during the winter - can't help but think the way the SSW impacted on the northern hemisphere was in the end the death knell for any sustained cold weather this winter - its all set up wrong - the weak atlantic hitting brick wall over and over again. I'm just taking cursory glance at the models at the moment - awaiting more concerted signals to shake us out of a very stubborn pattern - something will come along eventually... when is the question?.. - most probably the natural weakening of the PV as we move through early Spring. Just hope come summer we are not longing for the synoptics of winter 18/19!
  8. damianslaw

    Met office 16 to 30 day outlook

    Has to be said the Met Office long range forecasts have been woeful this winter - never known a winter like it, with cold weather predicted but pushed back and back and back and then cancelled. Best just sticking to the shorter range.
  9. I'm going to give myself a break from model watching for a few days, as I'm not expecting much change in the outlook, changes that may occur won't come into semi-reliable for a good few days yet - and I suspect this thread will just be full of very frustrated posts in the days ahead - however, I've seen enough to suggest there are signals for cold as we start Spring.. any atlantic attack another weak stunted affair.
  10. We have imported some very dry air today, gone is the usual dank muggy humid feel to things which often comes when mild conditions invade from the SW. The drier air with low dewpoints and lapse rates has made it feel very continental - hence it has felt warmer than temperatures suggest - but temps in the low teens in mid Feb will always feel warmer than they are. Mid Feb often marks a subtle change in the feel of things, the sun now starts to gain a bit more power, and we are starting to see a rapid rate of increased levels of light. However, we are still firmly in winter mode, and it will be a good 4 weeks yet, before I start to gain that true spring feel, until then its a slow gradual transition phase - the main shift in feel comes at the end of March. Tomorrow will be a carbon copy of today, the weekend will see more cloud especially here, with some drizzle on Saturday and perhaps more overcast grey skies on Sunday, pity today's weather couldn't have waited two more days in this respect.
  11. Prevailing weather pattern is low pressure to north of Scotland and higher pressure relative to low pressure further south - the accuweather just says normal service with a northerly tracking jet - nothing unusual at all. Going back to post above regarding stuck pattern akin to April 2007 and March 2012 - hope note, both were followed by a flip to sustained very unsettled weather, cold to boot in April 2012 as well..
  12. damianslaw

    Winter 2018/19

    Current synoptics are very similiar to mid Feb 1998, which delivered the warmest max in Feb on record. We haven't quite the same degree of surface warmth compared to then though. Another spell akin to now in Feb occurred in 2008, that one brought significant diurnal range temps with exceptionally low lapse rates, some very mild maxima and frosty nights. Both February's were followed by cold wintry conditions in March. Last day of Feb 1998 brought a northerly with some snow and the opening days of March were quite cold with further snow for some. March 2008 brought cold wintry conditions in time for easter. April 1998 and 2008 also brought cold wintry weather at times.. Not saying the same will happen this year - but quite noteworthy how those two very mild Februaries with southerlies were followed by March/Aprils with some snow and colder weather. Mother nature often balances herself out, and I've noticed how in recent years notably mild/cold conditions wet/dry conditions relative to the season have quickly been followed by the complete opposite! with sudden flips. March 2012 / April 2012 a good example warm/dry - cold/wet Dec 2010/opening of Jan 2011 - mid Jan-Feb 2011 cold/dry - mild/wet Mar-June 2013 - cold followed by July 2013 very warm Nov 2009 - very wet mild, Dec 2009-Jan 2010 very cold and dry
  13. How can we get rid of the atlantic cold blob in time for next winter.. it has been a feature of many winters recently. Mid atlantic highs would do the trick I think. We've been unfortunate this winter - its been a very quiet one atlantic wise, its just been the ridges have set up in the wrong place- shift everything 500-1000 miles west and we would have benefited from some much colder weather at least - lots of frost and ice days - not necessarily major snow, but a cold blocked one instead of a mild blocked one in the main. Watch everything change come Spring in favour of cold..
  14. Longer term it is a case of watching how the long wave trough digging deep through mid atlantic behaves combined with the trough over NE Russia - a pincer movement on the high set to dominate again next week. As has been said, need to see a negatively tilted trough out west with energy ejected SE to then allow the high to inflate northwards, with the trough to the NE then advecting SW underneath - ECM suggesting such an evolution as we end the month - all very plausible. All a long way off, but early-mid March isn't too late for some decent cold and wintry stuff. As we enter Spring, 'colder synoptics' courtesy of easterlies, northerlies statistically are more common than in winter. Spring is traditionally our most blocked season atlantic wise, when we often look north and east for our weather more than at any other stage of the year.
  15. When will that canadian vortex be scrubbed out - it is a very persistent feature as you say, isn't there more energy over Asian side - might more energy finally be transferred across to Asian side as we end February, or is it all just going to be a slow burner as we move through early Spring - meaning zzzzz time with high pressure meandering around our neck of the woods for some time. Our weather can be very changeable and volatile at times,but it can also be exceptionally tedious, and the last 12 months have been exceptionally tedious in this respect with very slow moving benign patterns - it all needs a kick.