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About damianslaw

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    Windermere 120m asl

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  1. Yes need cold embedded air to allow long lasting snowfall and cover here.. the Irish Sea can be a help and a hindrance. We did well in latter part of Jan 2015 from a WNW many snow showers, but snow was only able to stick through the night, and melted during the day, due to lack of proper cold uppers. Dec 2009 and 2010 good examples of WNW delivering big time thanks to deep embedded cold air, low pressure anchored down to the west and north - not a true WNW, more of a north/north easterly that took a long fetch and came at us from the WNW.
  2. Quite a change forecast next week, from this week's anticylonic nature, to a cyclonic one - with heights building strong to our north and north west, locking the trough and slow moving low pressure over the UK. Quite an interesting pattern, not your usual atlantic steamrolling in on a westerly trajectory - indeed this has been the theme of the year as a whole since February.. Tomorrow and Saturday and Sunday quite likely to bring the last of this years true warmth, yes we can still see mid 20s temps well into October, but chances become much slimmer and by then they won't feel the same as they do in September with lower light levels, and a weaker sun. Best make the make of it - will be a good six months before chances of similiar feeling weather will be back.. though we did see conditions on a par in late Feb this year.. the number of southerly outbreaks this year with low pressure to the SW and heights to our east has been very notable..
  3. Quite an interesting north atlantic profile forecast for the latter part of September - based on today's charts at least.. they could change, and tropical storm activity at this time of year has a habit of disrupting pattern development markedly, so take charts with caution beyond the 144 hr timeframe. Within that timeframe, a warm surge of uppers forecast on Saturday - it will be the fourth time this has happened at some stage in the latter part of the last 4 months.. could be some locally very warm temps for some, but the wind will take the edge off things. A balmy southerly! Into the start of next week, low pressure will swing through but may come unstuck somewhat with heights forecast to build to our NE, aided by the warm air advection that will have taken place this weekend. Heavy rain for some, and feeling quite muggy I would expect with tropical maritime air invading. The latter part of the month, could see a marked cooldown as the trough is forced down on the UK, with heights building to the NW having retrogressed from the NE, and low pressure moving in underneath, no sign the jet is in any hurry to get its act together, indeed sluggish cut off low territory and slow moving trough feature is being shown, more akin to what you might expect in late spring..
  4. Quite a chilly night for some sheltered north east parts of England expected including Yorkshire - could be a few places record there first ground frost, mins down to 1 or 2 degrees.
  5. Yes I've expressed my feelings about September, whilst being the most pleasant of all months, it is all the most 'dull' weatherwise - its not until the latter part of the month, there is a sense of autumn setting in properly. The upcoming few days once again reinforcing my view of September being a very 'trying' month for weather enthusiasts, but great for outdoor enthusiasts..
  6. Just seen this thread resurrected - yes I am also going to reference 20 or 21 Dec 2009 it was the Monday, quite unusual event here, with a very similiar set up, a convective SW flow from off Morecambe Bay produced a good 4-5 inches of snow here, I think it was the position of the low pressure to our NW which allowed it to happen, there was no trough or frontal feature. Not a normal synoptic, but shows we can have our own streamer from off Morecambe Bay. Generally most of our snow comes in the form of frontal or trough features, or showers from the west or more commonly NW, occasionally NE, and east, very rarely from the N or points between west and east (south points).
  7. The outlook within the reliable timeframe is about as zzz.. as it gets, all very pleasant and benign, but nothing to get remotely excited about - 'wake me up when september ends' - sorry but have to say this yet again..
  8. The above suggest a generally westerly flow with the jet aligned on a typical west-east path just to the north of the UK, and high pressure from the azores ridging into southern parts for most of the time.. All rather zzzzz....
  9. Don't have any strong recollections of past weather on christmas day when a child through the 80s - largely because apart from 1981 all were devoid of anything especially wintry and were either mild and sunny, or just dull average or mild with some rain. 1985 brought a cold Boxing Day I seem to remember with some snow - going off topic now.
  10. I was thinking we might be in the low 15s by early next week - however, the last few days have been cooler than I anticipated largely due to quite chilly minima. this month.. a final finish near average a good bet at this range, with an outside chance of something higher than 15 degrees - my hunch is a finish somewhere in the 14s.
  11. Its the time of year when sudden developments over the mid atlantic tropical region can play havoc with medium range forecasting, hence its wise to not look too much beyond the 144 hr timeframe. As is shown this morning, the models are picking up on a developing feature which is forecast to become entangled into the jetstream, and its path remains uncertain at this stage - so no surprise to see the current high being suggested to quickly break down come this time next week - it will have hung around for a good week anyway which is preety good going at this time of year, and will inevitably crash out to the atlantic at some point, the question is how - will it sink SE, and allow a more damp SW flow to envelop or might it get shunted away to the east with low pressure riding in over the UK.. In the meantime a very pleasant spell of weather for many especially in the south, lots of dry calm weather, decent spells of sunshine, cloud and rain reserved for the north. Quite chilly nights are expected and fog could become a key feature. Might inject some warmer uppers into the south again later next week. A good week for anyone taking a break in the UK. In overall feel, we won't see another one most likely until April at the earliest, so make the most of it (in terms of temperatures and general pleasantness - remember September is on average much warmer than April, despite the sun having less heat..).
  12. We seem to be stuck with periods with generally the same pattern prevailing.. with this in mind, my thoughts are the rest of September will see mostly dry pleasant conditions remaining in force over the south, with some temporary wetter cooler weather in the north at times, and some chilly nights at times. Looking ahead to October, my thoughts are for a fairly weak jet but with some significant amplification, heights backing to the west, allowing trough to anchor down through the UK with heights staying quite high also to the NW, so a chilly quite wet month possible, interspersed with some drier cool weather and possibly an arctic shot at some stage.
  13. Yes nearing 9 years now.. I think we had a longer run pre Feb 2009, though not sure, don't recall any winter month between Feb 97 and Feb 09 being 1 degree or below the mean, possibly Jan or Feb 01..
  14. Its September - so the inevitable slow moving high pressure must surely surface at some stage again - and going by today's models - yes once again it is about to move in.. how long will hang it around.. 'wake me up when September ends'..
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