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damianslaw last won the day on November 29 2015

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    Windermere 120m asl

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  1. Frost watch season 17/18

    It got colder than expected last night, not sure how low, but it was a chilly 6 degrees at 8.30, so I suspect it probably got down to about 3 degrees. Some spots got down to 1 and 2 degrees - will have to check the stats. There was a wonderful blanket of fog over Lake Windermere as well - autumn well and truly here now.
  2. Frost watch season 17/18

    Yes Tyndrum went below 0 degrees, so we have had our first official air frost of the new season. Tonight looks cold in sheltered glens of Scotland so another air frost might occur somewhere.
  3. Quite an interesting outlook, strong pressure rise forecast to our NE, but we also have a quite erratic uncertain atlantic with ex-tropical storms in the mix. I suspect we will see quite a sharp elongated trough set up shop to our west, its where the energy decides to go which remains questionable. Might we see some sort of shear effect, with energy splintering both SE and NE.. leaving the UK under a wet mess, with heights to the NE too far away to prevent atlantic frontal attacks, but significant enough to prevent any zonal onslaught.
  4. September 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    Mmmm not too sure on that, nightime minima Friday and Saturday look low, along with maxima, so I suspect the low point will be Sunday. Next week not looking especially mild either, average temps at best, making a milder than normal month increasingly unlikely now.
  5. Frost watch season 17/18

    We have the cold air now, but there looks to be too much wind in the nights ahead to produce. Still many places will see a run of fairly low minima for mid Sept, nothing exceptional, but temps in the 3-6 degree range in countryside spots. Some sheltered western parts might scrape a grass frost by the weekend, when winds fall light, one to watch.
  6. Autumn thoughts

    This evening is the first to produce that real autumn chill, thanks to the polar airstream, the low level sunlight was superb, and you could see your breathe when you breathed, temperatures 10 degrees at 6pm.. many a eve in Jan and Feb milder than that..
  7. September 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    Thanks for the stats, I think the current mean is being skewed by relatively average minima, maxima certainly a fair bit below the early-mid Sept average. I wonder how many of the years mentioned brought low means thanks to low mins - possibly more anticylonic conditions. I don't recall 2013 and 2015 bringing the woeful maxes we have seen so far this month, indeed it feels much more akin to the likes of 92-94 era in that respect which were predominantly wet atlantic affairs, with winds often between north and west.
  8. September 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    A notably chilly few days ahead will knock the CET downwards into the 13's by the end of the weekend. Long time since we had such a cool first half to September.. Some chilly nights also on the cards, single digits for many, lower in the countryside. There is still alot of the month to go though, and whether we return a below average month is difficult to predict. A warm up of sorts early-mid next week is being forecasted, and near or slightly above average temps could then see the rest of the month out. I am not seeing a major warm up though.
  9. A turbulent 12-18 hours ahead for the region, northern parts including here look set to see some heavy rain which could cause localised flooding, southern parts severe gaes -early for the season and something we have been spared in many recent autumns in the main. If this was anytime between Dec and April, I suspect a snowfest would be on the cards here, a classic set up, with us locked on the cold side of the polar front, steep temp gradient cold air undercutting no wind or modification. Alas its September.
  10. An exceptionally poor day here, on and off heavy showers merging into longer spells of rain with barely a break, athough the sun made an appearance for about 10 minutes - this is turning into a very dull September.. gusty winds as well, temps in the 12-14 degree range, very poor for 10 September a good 4 degrees below where they should be. We even had a lightning strike and some rumbles of thunder. The upcoming week looks preety dire, meaning we have endured 2 months now of constant unsettled conditions and below average temps.
  11. An unsettled definately autumnal week ahead for all, with conditions more akin to late October than early-mid Sept. Lots of rain and strong winds at times and feeling chilly, indeed northern parts will struggle to hit more than 15 degrees all week, some places languishing in the 11-13 degree range at times - very very poor for the time of year. Limited brightness as well will make it feel preety miserable. Tuesday night / early Wed likely to bring the first gales of the season, with a nasty little low pressure system set to track through central Scotland, strong winds on its southern flanks, Irish Sea coastal areas look most prone, with severe gales possible at times, and lots of heavy rain as well. Thankfully there appears to be a settling down of conditions on the cards as we approach the weekend, as the azores high looks set to ridge in and push away the chilly unsettled n atlantic air, I've my fingers crossed a warm front doesn't spoil the party here on Saturday, I really want a dry day.. for personal reasons. Some spots might see a localised grass frost as well over the weekend.
  12. The last 4 seasons were very weak - so there could be some creedance in this. The last active season I think was 2012, and 2010 was also quite active..
  13. Summers of 1980 and 1987

    Don't remember Summer 1987 being anything special. Indeed the summer holidays of 1985-1988 were mostly cloudy cool and wet here, very disapointing for a child aged between 7 and 10 years as I was then - a time when you want to be outside! not stuck in the house.. but I remember many washout days trying to entertain ourselves in the house. The period was bookended by some very good summers in 1983, 1984, 1989 notably so, and 1990. The winters made up for it though, with lots of cold frosty snowy conditions. Looking at the statistics, summer 1980 was equally very poor, often cool wet and cloudy. The 80's overall were not renowned for there summers, bar the exceptions of 1983, 1984 and 1989.
  14. Autumn thoughts

    Noticed quite a bit of early leaf colour change this year, but may just be a sign those trees affected in some state of stress. The Rowan tree near me though is coated in vivid orange leaves, and many of the berries are being eaten by thrushes and jackdaws. Last year though the birds didn't clear it clean until mid November. Balckberries this year were very early also.
  15. September 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    CET set to slide a little over the next few days, with suppressed maxima, but not a dramatic slide thanks to near average/slightly above average means, could see a more notable drop by mid month if we see clearing skies under quite cool surface air, but may not last long.. might be one of those months where low maxima is cancelled out by milder minima, often can occur in wet unsettled Septembers when the atlantic reigns supreme..