Model Forum Host
  • Content count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

5,862 Exceptional

1 Follower

About damianslaw

Profile Information

  • Gender
  • Location
    Windermere 120m asl

Recent Profile Visitors

11,272 profile views
  1. autumn

    There is a good chance of at least a ground frost tomorrow night in sheltered spots of Cumbria Ian.. we shall see, light winds, clear skies and low uppers - ripe territory I would have thought and the westerlies are about to be attacked by the easterly/southeasterly though not a cold source at this time of year, so October will be starting off an a very un westerly like phase away from the far NW.
  2. Expecting a few reports come Sunday, of first air and ground frosts in northern rural areas - around average. Fingers crossed we see a ground frost at least.
  3. autumn

    There is a thread somewhere about central heating/heat of houses etc. Every house is different, aspect, age are key factors.I'm very exposed here to the westerly wind, and its an old stone building, it loses heat rapidly.
  4. Interesting reading Roger.. I'm a bit of a believer that mother nature balances herself out, i.e. very warm or very wet periods one year are likely to be preceded or followed by very cold or very dry periods. Nov 09 and Nov 10 good examples, an exceptionally wet very mild Nov followed by a very cold second half November. March 12 very warm and dry , followed by the very cold March of 2013. So with this logic the exceptionally very wet and very mild Nov and Dec last year, may be followed by the complete opposite! i.e. extremes follow extremes, and last Nov and more so December around here was exceptionally extreme, as extreme as it can be for rainfall and mild weather, I really wouldn't be surprised to see something much colder and drier to end this year.
  5. Models continue to show a very blocked scenario overall, with the atlantic really having trouble breaking through thanks to the very strong heights forecast to build to the east. A very plausible outcome is a diving trough scenario, or at least low heights to the SW, which in turn has to lead to height development to our NW - something the GFS and ECM are showing in the long range timeframe. Ex tropical storm activity is a wild card, some of the models are suggesting ex storm Matthew being forced north up the eastern seaboard this in turn would aid warm air advection and help develop strong heights over Greenland. Certainly very interesting model watching - far from the default westerly zonal train, especially so when we are now approaching the time of year when the Polar Vortex starts to really get its act together. Very different set up to the past 3 autumns I say..
  6. Worth a look at the jetstream forecast profile, it can't be relied on like all long range model predictions, but interesting to note it is showing a split jet next week, with energy going into the southern arm, which would back up the ECM and GFS hint that heights instead of collapsing south into Europe, will instead retrogress NW to languish somewhere to our north instead, the cut off low feature over Europe thus being an important feature in enabling this to happen.
  7. Not often you can say the models are in agreement throughout all timeframes - at least 240 hrs! - rare indeed. We have a classic azores high ridging through the country and into scandi scenario, with the jet tracking far to the NW sending frontal activity away from our shores. What we are left with is a full blown easterly flow, off a still warm continent. How warm things become next week is open to question, much will depend on how sunny the airstream is expected to be, but it does look like many will see very respectable temps for early October, though nights could be quite chilly. Looking further ahead, ECM is showing a classic retrogression pattern, the next timeframe would show heights building through up to Greenland, this often does occur when heights become very strong - as they are forecast to do. Gosh if this was winter, this thread would be crashing... alas we are still just on the right side of the year for easterlies to deliver warmth still, if this was a month ahead we would be looking at a colder than normal period, with a rapidly much colder continent. (BBC will have to do a marked u-turn this evening in their long range forecast, yesterday they were saying westerlies would dominate with the jet crashing through - tonight's should be showing the complete opposite - I did wonder yesterday what charts they were looking at, as it was clear the models were not showing such a thing at all).
  8. It can work both ways, winter 78/79 brought bitter cold to NE USA and vice versa here. It all depends on the position of the jetstream, a strong ridge over NW USA/West Canada generally results in a cold northerly airstream over mid USA, with alternating cold/mild weather over NE USA, a powerful jet tends to create steeper temperature gradients over central/NE USA and this often means we end up with a dominant mild westerly pattern, with cyclogenesis development over Greenland/Iceland regions - this pattern was the theme of winter 13/14 and 14/15 which brought very cold digs of air to NE USA, but this in turn promoted strong low pressure development over the atlantic. What you want is a weaker jet with a more meridional flow over central USA as this promotes warm air advection over NE USA/ Eastern seaboard and enables the Greenland high to form - the end result will be a cold mid west, a mild east USA, and a cold Europe.
  9. autumn

    Yes we have a spell of polar maritime air for the first time in ages it feels.. very fresh feeling day, and cool maxima. Temp at 6pm a chilly 10.7 degrees, and we are at 9.5 degrees now despite the wind and rain, indicative of the marked cooler upper air temps. The next 3 days will have a distinct mid autumn feel to them, maxima here unlikely to get above 13 degrees, with potential for our first ground frost on Sunday, which will be nice to see, pity low pressure looks like spoiling things on Saturday. The leaves are still mostly green, but expecting some changes over the days ahead, a few have blown off today adding to the more mid autumn feel to things.
  10. I'll guess 11.8 degrees, another comfortably above average month, but not especially so. Looks like starting on a mild note from the 3rd onwards, with very mild maxima in southern parts - dependent on if the sun comes out, some cooler nights though. May see a more near average spell mid month with some chilly nights, and then the usual atlantic onslaught to end the month with mild SW airstream (late October is renowned for atlantic weather), but perhaps a marked change at the very tail end with a northerly influence (my hunch is November is going to be very different..).
  11. Mmm not so sure we will come in above 16 degrees, today and tomorrow may nudge us just below with downward adjustments, tomorrow is looking quite cool. A finish of 15.9 degrees I suspect.
  12. This thread is turning into a winter 16-17 forecast thread... its making for good reading though. Interesting reading about canadian strat warmings, the last one in Nov 2000 was followed by a rather episodic winter for cold and snow, a very mild first half to Dec, with a much colder end, indeed a very snowy cold christmas week. Jan, Feb and March brought average conditions overall, but a few decent cold shots especially in the north with quite a bit of snow. Alas, looking forward to the strat thread becoming more active. Is it time we have a thread dedicated to winter 16/17 now that October is nearly upon us, this thread is likely to become the default one either way.
  13. Hoping this thread may see a bit more action come the weekend - still a bit off, but the models are suggesting a possible widespread ground frost over northern parts early hours of Sunday, with the usual frost prone spots seeing an air frost. Conditions do look conducive, uppers will be cold enough and winds look like falling light with, much will depend on cloud cover and if we see any showery activity. We shall see. Early hours of Monday brought a min of 0.1 degrees in Aboyne just shy of an air frost.. so we still await the first sub freezing min of the season, quite late this year, I'm not including August as I class the 1 Sept as the start of the new season.
  14. Its far from a zonal atlantic onslaught attack.. the models continue to show amplification in the flow over the coming week, thanks to the interaction of ex-tropical storm systems, lots of topsy turvy conditions, from a mild southerly tomorrow, to much fresher polar maritime air by the weekend, and a significant chance of seeing the first ground frost of the season come the early hours of Sunday, to something milder again early next week, with the trough amplifying and heights building strongly to the east. What is also notable is the propensity for relatively strong heights to our north throughout the run, especially as shown by the GFS. All in all quite interesting charts..
  15. autumn

    A cool day here under grey wet leaden skies, max of 12.5 degrees. Its felt very different to most days this month, tomorrow and Wednesday will see a return of the mild muggy stuff, much fresher again come Thursday-Saturday.