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damianslaw last won the day on November 29 2015

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    Windermere 120m asl

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  1. damianslaw

    Winter 2009/10 memories

    Always good to think about deep cold and snow in the height of summer, something I find myself doing, when I begin to tire of the base summer state, I do the same in winter sometimes, thinking about sunshine and warmth when we are having any prolonged cold that is.. Snowfall wise winter 09/10 beat Dec 2010 here hands down. We had about 8 inches from snowfalls on the 20th and 21st, the snow stuck around through until Boxing Day but it then thawed on low ground. We missed out on the epic snowfalls on the 6 Jan, we had a couple of inches only. A few light falls thereafter, but nothing significant. Coldwise Dec 2010 was exceptional, lakes froze over, and parts of rivers, we had a 9 day run of sub zero temps from 17-26 Dec. Neither winter though brought a blizzard. Indeed we haven't had one of them for ages and ages, we keep missing out. Mind March 1 and 2 this year brought a sustained freezing easterly gale which wipped up the snow and felt like a blizzard. We just missed out on the 23 March 2013 event, it seemed to skirt around here, places just a few miles further west were plastered in the stuff.
  2. Yes an injection of warm humid air will enter the mix imported continental warmth, however, its then a battle between the atlantic and heights to the NE. Suggestion may see a cut off low anchor down to our west and approach SW regions. The key is the behaviour of the azores high I feel, if it attempts to ridge in behind the cut off low then we could see high pressure build through the UK again, however, I expect it won't and it will then depend on the position of the jet and whether we see trough action sneak through. As for projected temps, I can't see low 30's early next week for many, given we will be in a broadly westerly flow still, indeed BBC has just removed its 32 degree temp for west midlands, high 20's now - it did seem a mistake to me. Longer term may well see the scandi high split with a trough sinking SE through Finland and NW Russia, what this would do is enable a deep rooted plume, but sharpen the trough to our west I suspect, and a thundery firework display could see July out.. before the atlantic or the azores high noses in again.. Won't be viewing the models now for 10 days.
  3. Fine balance at the moment - the atlantic looks like having some influence next week, cut off slow moving low territory throwing up instability - indeed injecting this into the warm humid southerly air - real heat looks reserved for SE quarter, though perhaps low 30's in some central parts. Minima does though look very high - horrid humidity sultry conditions. Still firmly don't believe this month will be the warmest on record.
  4. damianslaw

    Autumn 2018

    Does anyone have stats for September 1976 and 1995, both were very wet and cool I believe, coming on the back of our warmest sunniest and driest summers in living memory. What was the ENSO state in summer 1995, synoptics since March have been quite similar to 1995, though May 95 saw some northerly shots. Also believe we were at solar min then, and we are not far off it now.. Autumn 95 despite the wet Sept, saw dry conditions in Oct and Nov, a very mild Oct, and a nearer average Nov, we then had a cold snowy dry winter. Indeed March 95 marked the start of our driest 2 year period on record I believe - I hope this isn't the start of a similar period though.. although I'd be very happy with an autumn containing a Oct and Nov 95, not so Sept, and a winter like 95/96.
  5. Did anyone see this summer coming? Its reminding me a bit like winter 09/10 - a prolonged cold winter that never brought any real mild weather at all, surprised many.. but the ominous very wet mild November was perhaps a sign something unusual was about to happen. This year we had the odd end Feb/early march period, and the extreme easterlies - again anomalous and a sign perhaps things not normal this year. Indeed since then the atlantic has been in almighty slumber, 5 months now.. Rationale / reasoning for this summer from 'experts' would be welcomed, effect of SSW, la nina background state, now moving into El Nino, the cold SST's to our NW,,, what is causing it? Big question - when will it break, any signs emerging of a change... it will come.
  6. Agree there is a marked temp gradient setting up over the atlantic this summer, and I suspect this will cause the jetstream to seriously ramp up, a very wet autumn could be on the cards with some early cold build up wanting to spill out of the arctic. A mark of this, is the forecast for a ramping in the jet this week, when it was expected to weakenand become sluggish - it is preety active just to our north at the moment.
  7. There are two forcing features so to speak at play as we move through the latter part of July, one is the persistant high to our NE, but the other is the atlantic which is forcing down on the azores high and will cause it to retreat away from the UK. The question is whether we see enough depth in warm uppers from the continent build NE through SE parts to fend off the atlantic, but in turn quite likely allow a heat low of sorts to develop to our SW, or we see a bit of a stand off and a slack pressure pattern take hold with instability thanks to the hot air. My reckoning is the slack pressure pattern, not the extreme heat some are talking about, but a humid airstream - and a sneaky trough then finding its way into western shores with a slow breakdown - a bit like has just occurred.
  8. Some useful amounts of rain today. Moderate stuff early this morning, and it rained off and on all day, with a long heavier spell early this evening. Also, there is less evaporation today due to the cooler uppers, temps were only 16 degrees this evening. All welcome for the farmers etc. Next few days don't look like bringing much rain, but chance of showers. Later in the week could bring some heavier downpours and a messy mix of drizzle or rain in what will be much humid air. Anyhow I'm disappearing to the south until very end of the month - where the warm dry weather looks set to continue.
  9. Its around the second week of August I notice a change in light levels, by then a sunny clear sky day will bring dusk by 9pm, but until then it still stays generally light until about half 9 - the mark of decent light, unless its a wet overcast evening. Tonight though is seeing rapid light loss now, we have cloudy skies. From mid August, we lose light levels markedly, but until then its summer all the way.
  10. Now entering what I call 'high summer' which is mid July to mid August, when we see the warmest period of the year on average, however, also tends to be a wetter period than early-mid summer. I suspect we may see a couple of hot plumes in the next 4 weeks, possibly one to end July and then another maybe before we hit mid August. Can't see anything but appreciably warm weather for the weeks ahead, but increased chance of rain for all - probably in the form of showers or thundery downpours for most, often localised, the NW though will be influenced by frontal activity on occasion. Will we see a marked change by end of August - probability perhaps says yes, but this has been an unusual year since the SSW. However, at some point expect the cold air over Arctic to interact with an increasingly rampant jetstream - the elastic will then snap so to speak. Would like others thoughts on likely patterns for later summer and into autumn - what impact will El Nino have?
  11. Visited waterfalls in Ambleside and they were a rather pitiful state, though still some water gushing down - all quite odd, given how normally heavy flowing they are in an average summer.
  12. Interesting observations - I often believe late June/early July is the pivotal point in the summer, an unusually dry warm spell at such a time increases the chances of further notably dry warm weather rest of summer, as occurred in the years above, the key is a sustained dry warm period in the late June/early July period - a whole period of such weather not just a few days. Will be interesting to see if Sept then produces a deluge as it did in 1976 and 1995. Atlantic has to wake up sometime.
  13. damianslaw

    Autumn 2018

    Given the extended dry spell and sustained warmth since May, it already feels like late August.. alas we are only in mid-July. If we continue to see little rain over the coming weeks and further heat, then expect quite a poor showing autumn colour wise, the trees will be withered and brown by September and will probably die off very quickly. Already the Rowan Tree outside my flat has yellow leaves, indeed everything is browning and crisping.. Would like an autumn like 2012, the less proper Autumn in my book, a chilly frosty one - that will do.
  14. Mmm are you sure about that, first rain yesterday for 20 days only, some general moderate long lasting stuff today. We had a wet week between 13 and 20 June.
  15. Nearing half way mark, and it already looks likes being one of the warmest July's on record, but I now doubt it will break the record of 2006. CET region will stay very warm for the foreseeable but not exceptionally so, it may be the minima which holds it up, with maxima dropping closer to nearer normal levels. A finish at least 2 degrees above norm looks an almost cert, possibly high 18s finishing mark would be a good bet. Its been quite a unusual year so far CET wise, Feb and then March being colder than normal, since then a run of very warm months. All down to that SSW I feel..