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damianslaw last won the day on November 29 2015

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  1. The models are showing an unusually active atlantic next week, with a strong jet steamrolling across the country, mmm ominious not very good signal for the remainder of the summer.. usually takes until late August before we see such power..
  2. Our warmest recent summers in the last 40 years or so - 1975, 1976, 1989, 1995, 2003 and 2006 all produced decent heat in June followed by further heat.. We've had summers though such as 1983, 1990 and 2013, 2014 that saw the heat arrive in July bringing 2 week periods of superb summer weather, something not on the cards this June. It is a good omen all the same. I'm cautiously optimistic that we will see further very decent conditions at times during the rest of the summer, but perhaps episodic, not a 1976 or 1995 repeat, the atlantic looks too active this year for that. Southern plumes and azores ridging is not a stable summer pattern as it is indicative of a rather amplified pattern, with rapid exchanges from ridge to trough, as we are about to see, and as we know the atlantic traditionally strengthens as the summer wears on..
  3. More in terms of the synoptical set up in how the warm spell arrived and settled in. June 1995 produced a 7 day period of weather every bit as comparable as the last 7, albeit temps didn't quite hit the heights of today, but unlike this year, the heat was far more widespread infiltrating Scotland and N Ireland as well, with maxes regularly in mid-high 20's for most, whereas this year it has really been an England/Wales event. The first half as you say was very different though.
  4. Models all showing a marked change from tomorrow onwards, with the current ridge quickly cast aside by what appears to be quite an active atlantic - not a very good omen it has to be said, given this is the period when the northern hemispheric base summer state sets in... we could be in for quite an unusual summer, with robust deep longwave trough action interspersed with southern plumes and strong azores ridging, with wildly different conditions in 10 day periods.. thanks to a highly amplified pattern, not sure we shall see. We've had two very good spells so far this summer season, end May and now mid June, first half of May wasn't bad either. My hunch was for June to always produce the best the weather had to offer this summer, 7 days with somewhere hitting 30 degrees, is a tall order in any summer.
  5. Yes - a return to a trough dominated pattern as we end the month and start July it appears, could we be seeing a summer with trough followed by ridge followed by trough pattern, meaning wetter more average temp periods followed by heat and sun.. would make for an interesting summer. I too will be in Wales from 28 June - 5 July, mmm its looking preety unsettled..
  6. We had a brief splish splash of raindrops this morning, then nothing until about half 7 when we had a brief showery outbreak, but only the very slightest of damp hitting the ground. Its been a very muggy humid day despite the cloud cover - not particularly pleasant. Tomorrow will bring a return to average conditions, indeed the next week looks distinctly cool with a strong wind setting in, and much cloud with some rain.
  7. I do wonder if there is ever an optimal set of conditions - we all have our preferences, so never expect consensus. For me the current conditions are near enough perfect, but not quite, I'm happy with mid 20 maxima, once it gets above 28 degrees I do find it uncomfortable.. however, I also like picture perfect clear blue skies, which we don't quite have at the moment, the airstream and synoptics are not quite right for that, what we need is high pressure directly overhead, indeed northern blocking usually does the trick, but that usually then means no wind making it feel more uncomfortable but compensated by lower humidity and very dry air, cooler nights can occur.. We're never happy..
  8. Summer 2001 - mmm struggling to remember much about it, I don't recall it being all that bad - otherwise I would remember it, nor did it bring anything especially notable summer heat wise. I think it brought shortlived decent conditions at times, but it was very episodic. It wasn't as bad as 2000 or 2002 which brought persistant wet dull grey non-descript weather with little in the way of warmth. Certainly very average though. Overall though 2001 was one of the more varied years of the 00's, I think it was the coldest year of the decade with lengthy dry periods, the first 5 months brought quite a bit of easterly weather, September 2001 was preety chilly, but October 2001 was very mild. Nov brought an early arctic blast, and Dec 2001 brought alot of cold frosty and at times snowy weather. Certainly not a year dominated by the atlantic which most of the 00's was (summer 2003/ and much of 2005/2006 excepted).
  9. Current conditions are reminding me of June 1995, the last time we saw a similiar spell of weather with equivalent temperatures. It was a month of contrasting fortunes, especially in the east- the first 2-3 weeks were dominated by cool grey skies with a persistant North / north easterly airstream, conversely the NW faired best, with mostly sunny albeit distinctly average temps, with a robust mid atlantic high feature which tried to ridge NE across the country from time to time but became unstuck by a fairly weak atlantic trough feature anchoring itself down from the NW. It was a very dry month in the west and north west overall. There was then a major turnaround just in time for the Summer solstice, with a synoptic set up almost the replica of what occured Friday/Saturday last week, the azores high ridged north, and pulled in much warmer uppers, with 30 degrees widespread in southern parts by the 22nd. The rest of the month brought wall to wall blue skies and high temps for all, N England and Scotland saw some very high maxima, as high pressure sat over the country. By the end of the month the high retrogressed to the NW and a slightly cooler easterly feed invaded southern and eastern parts. I remember the spell very well, not bettered in any June since in these parts in my book, though June 2006 gave it a run for its money. Unfortunately the current weather looks shortlived, a mini version of June 1995.. Promisingly, it heralded a superb summer, again not bettered since in my book..
  10. Short term - staying very warm/hot from a line south of roughly the Wash to the Bristol channel, much of Wales, midlands and n england will see a drop in termps tomorrow, most notably NE, as a cold front sinks through these parts, but then it rebounds and becomes a warm front, with a surge of hot air for the SW on Wednesday - quite an unusual synoptic set up. The azores ridge will be trying to inflate north, but it is becoming stretched, and greater atlantic forces look like kicking it into touch by the end of the week, for all. Indeed temps should fall back to near average values with a much fresher feel, but lots of uncertainty regarding details. Longer term - a flip back to generally more unsettled conditions looks most likely, similiar to the first week of June. So whilst we may be about to record a notably very warm June, it will end up being a month masked by large contrasts, certainly not a classically dry sunny one for most, though the SE will rank it very highly, those in the NW despite the current summery weather, quite poorly I suspect.. a lesson to those who don't look beyond the statistics, up until Saturday I was ranking June as poor, the current weather has brought it to average/slightly better than average, but I can't see it breaking above that here, indeed 'average' might be the best description putting all things into perspective.
  11. Excellent summer conditions over the Lake District at the moment, just how I like it. Not too hot, we are only seeing maxes in the 22-23 degree range but that is fine when accompanied by abundant sunshine blue clear skies and a nice cooling breeze. Last night was very light, there was a lovely sunset and it never got truly dark, this is the best time of year for optimising summery weather due to the exceptional light levels - far better than in mid-late August.. Looking ahead, 2-3 more lovely days ahead perhaps a bit warmer as well, we might scrape 25 degrees by Wednesday as we see winds shift around to come in more from the south/south east, however, certainly no heatwave beckoning for Cumbria it appears, westerly/south westerly feed by Thursday will bring cloud possible rain/drizzle and much fresher conditions. Indeed BBC going for woeful maxes of 14, 15 degrees, I can see the headlines now, SE bakes in mid 30's, whilst NW chills in mid teens...
  12. A much warmer day - the first true warm feeling day of June so far, so feeling like summer again, but disappointingly cloudy in the main, yes we had bright skies and some chinks of sunshine, but the air has that hazy humid feel to it.. not something I personally enjoy, much rather have a cleaner airstream overhead with abundant blue skies and sunshine and crystal clear clarity.. not much to ask for is it.. Tomorrow will see drizzly conditions in the morning, but hopefully brighter sunnier conditions later on though chance of showers and the humidity will have gone. Friday doesn't look particularly inspiring, and I fear despite another warm up for the weekend, much of the region will be plagued with rather cloudy hazy skies and we here we could see some misty low cloud at times..
  13. The first half of June this year has seen a change of fortune depending on where you are compared to first half of June 2016. Unlike last year, north west quarter of the country has borne the brunt of the worse conditions as the airstream has been predominantly between south west and north west, never a good direction for such parts, meaning continuous bouts of heavy rain, or grey leaden cool skies, here we have had very little sunshine, and some very wet spells indeed, conversely the east and more notably the SE has often been fairly dry with only sporadic wet outbreaks and temps much closer to normal with more in the bright or sunny conditions. The opposite occured last year, the first half of June was dominated by winds from between north and east, meaning NW and sheltered west parts saw the best of the weather, with lots of dry warm sunny conditions, the east coast caught the raw deal with low cloud and drizzle and cool temps. The rest of this week promises warmer conditions in the main for all, but the NW quarter will see further cloud or rain/drizzle and temps only nudging into the low 20's at best, perfectly respectable for June but nothing special, it would therefore require an exceptional last 10 days of persistant dry very warm sunny weather to salvage back what will have been a very disappointing June for such parts, conversely I suspect write ups of June 2017 as a whole for a line south of the Humber to the Severn channel will rank it as very good indeed.. For those in the NW quarter of the country, June is often far more likely to bring less in the way of westerly murky drizzly grey rot, compared to August, and we only really have July then to bank on when it goes, those in the SE still have August and September to bank on..
  14. Nearly at the half way point of June, and it looks like another above average month is on the cards, and possibly appreciably so following on from the theme of the past 12 months. Expect the CET to ramp up over the coming days with very high minima and maxima.. I do believe there will be quick to more average means before the year is out, and my hunch is the trend will set in come August, just a hunch, and my hunch has always been for June to be the best month of the summer (it though has a lot of groundwork still to do here, as so far it has been very poor..)
  15. A fair bit of flip flopping between intra-model runs at present, never a great sign for calling any degree of certainty to things, so don't be surprised to see further changes in the next few runs, we need some consistency before we can call on either a sustained warmer phase as shown by ECM, or something more temporary a la GFS. The form horse should always be on the the more temporary feature affairs, this is the UK after all, but on occasion we can see the more locked in pattern. Some significant heat is due to build over Iberia and S France in the days ahead, so any airstream from off the continent on a southerly drift will bring notably very warm uppers, my expected max for Wed would be 28 degrees, the weekend could return similiar values if the ECM model output of today comes off as well, but all conjecture. The ensembles and background signals still suggest the more retrogressive pattern..