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About damianslaw

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  1. As others have commented, always important to look at the trends shown by the mean ensembles, rather than focus on every new model run, especially when looking beyond the 144 hr timeframe. The ensembles continue to show a weak ineffectual atlantic right through the rest of the month and into November, with strong heights to the NE and also atlantic ridge development, and a strong trend for mid atlantic heights to transfer northwards towards Greenland - its been a theme for days now.. ECM backing up this trend. Don't be surprised to see tomorrows GFS runs showing something more akin to what they were early this week - how often does the GFS flip flop like this, all too often.
  2. Still waiting for our first ground frost of the season, we normally have had one by now. Good chance tomorrow evening might deliver.. an air frost would be nice but may have to wait a bit longer. It was a stunning day for photographers, very clear air, and with the lower sun casting long shadows on the eastern wall of the southern/central lakeland fells, superb stuff. The sun still has a bit of heat in it, and with the light winds it felt much more pleasant than yesterday. The outlook looks bright rather than sunny but we could see stubborn cloud invade from the east making for a rather drab few days and therefore less chance of crisp cold starts.
  3. A chilly day here under grey leaden clouds and rain or heavy showers, first proper cold feeling day of the season.
  4. Much will depend on cloud cover, and the orientation of flow, fine margins are being shown between a predominantly cooler flow, and a slightly milder one - but nothing particularly mild.
  5. autumn

    Yes you may be in luck this year, if the synoptics shown today verify - little in the way of strong winds, they are more likely to wither away, though frosts could have a significant effect. November can be an especially drab damp month, but it is a very evocative time of year, when its clear and calm. A cold dry sunny day in November has a special quality about it, mother nature settling down for its winter hibernation. Recent Novembers have brought mixed fayre here, Nov 2008 was a good one for cold dry frosty conditions, Nov 2009 abymsal with torrential rain and widespread flooding, Nov 2010 exceptionally quiet and ending up very cold, Nov 11 another wet mild affair, Nov 2012 preety average with a cold end, Nov 2013 similiar though a bit milder, Nov 14 and Nov 15 very mild dull and very wet - exceptionally so last year, hoping for something more akin to 2008, 2010 or 2012 this year.
  6. I think there may be a scottish mountain snowfall thread, but can't find it, however, thought it a good time to start one for the UK as a whole as we enter the start of the next winter season. Looking at the mountain forecasts, ground above 900 metres in the Highlands should see its first proper snowfalls of the season next week, perhaps with decent covering on the highest ground. Nothing to unusual, but a sign of things to come. The very highest tops of the Lakeland fells will see some sleet on Tuesday and perhaps a fleeting snowflake or two.
  7. The above still suggestive, of mid atlantic heights pulling down weak frontal attacks from the NW, or conversely strong ridge to the east and weak frontal attacks moving past the NW of the UK on a NE path, either way, it suggests the atlantic will be a weak player.
  8. At the half way stage, and given the output shown by the models today a very near average CET likely to be the end result, but there are signs things could dip colder resulting in a a below average month. I'd say 60% odds of a below average month, but only slightly so, slim chance 15% 1 degree below average, these odds could increase though over the coming days.
  9. autumn

    All the dry very calm weather of late is helping to retain leaf cover on the trees, and the sunshine is boosting the storage of sugar the key recipe for brilliant colour. Liking the outlook alot, no gales of even strong winds on the cards for the foreseeable, and the return of dry sunny chilly conditions, perhaps our first air frost, which will do wonders for the autumn colours in the Lake District. Could be a cracking half term week for anyone wanting to see natures autumn display this year, traditionally the last week of October is the peak time for autumn colour, after the first frosts and just before the leaves give up and wither or fall to the ground, In some years early autumn gales strip the trees bear, this year I have a feeling they will simply wither away in a quiet retreat clinging on for dear life.
  10. Hitting that time of year, when the continent begins to cool rapidly, high pressure development over scandanvia from here on in, aids the development of cold surface air over the near continent, and easterlies change from becoming warm to cold.. this will be very evident come mid next week, sub 548 dam air firmly entrenched across the country, only 2-3 weeks ago, we would have been seeing the sub 548 dam air well away from our shores. However, southerly and southeasterly airstreams still pack a warm punch, and if the synoptics shown by the models verify, then we will see the return of milder SE flow, but nothing substantial with a tongue of warmer uppers advected north across the country, squeezed through by colder uppers just to the east and west, so unlikely to be long lasting. So after a couple of milder days ahead, the outlook looks average temperature wise in the main, perhaps a bit below for a time, and then slightly above more so in the south for a short time, warmer maxes cancelled out by cooler nights, indeed later next week could deliver the first widespread ground frost for many, with a widespread air frost in the north, fog could become a troublesome feature aswell, especially given the late sunrise we see in late October. Longer term - signs of retrogression of heights once again towards Greenland with a trough digging down into scandi and a very negative NAO type set up, and a southerly tracking jet, the alternative scenario is low pressure becoming anchored to our south/southwest with a very raw easterly/north easterly feed - very anamolous conditions for late october which traditionally is one of the most westerly dominated periods of the year. Indeed this October could go down as one of the most easterly in a long series..
  11. autumn

    Mother nature has a habit of balancing herself out, somewhat, wouldn't be at all surprised to see the record wetness of Nov/Dec last year be followed by the complete opposite for the end of this year, its happened before many a time, wet periods quickly succeeded by very dry periods and vice versa..
  12. This suggests to me, strong mid atlantic heights with weak frontal attacks from the NW..
  13. On thing that has been very notable in our winters since about 2004/2005 is a propensity for a much more amplified jestream profile, with winters in the main either falling in the mild/very mild wet camp, or cold/very cold dry camp. Only winter 14/15 could be described as more average with a more classic ridge/trough scenario, as occured in many of the winters pre-2004/2005. I don't think it is just a co-incidence this change has occured during a period when we have seen record arctic sea ice loss. Our summers have also been characterised by highly amplified patterns, with locked in periods of very similiar weather, rather than the more episodic alternating cooler and warmer phases.
  14. All eyes on hurricane Nicole and how it interacts with the jetstream, models showing a very similiar set up as we had with hurricane matthew, throwing up another strong ridge across the country and then into scandinavia - so almost a carbon copy of developments early this month. In the short term - an unsettled spell, but no strong winds or particularly heavy rain, it is turning into a very 'quiet' autumn in many respects. The influence of ex tropical storms systems as ever being crucial, this year they have helped to build in strong ridges. However, we are nearing the end of the hurricane season and the real test will come in about 2 weeks, when traditionally the PV ramps into full gear and the atlantic gains the upper hand, a strong ridge /high lattitude blocking scenario as being shown by the models today for later in the month, would do significant damage to the Polar Vortex and we could be starting November on a very different note to many recent years, similiar to 2009 and 2010 in some respects.. lets see. If the models verify as shown today, a very dry October is on the cards for western districts, we've had barely a few mms so far.. October is normally one of our wetter months.
  15. Yes winter 13/14 was virtually snowless here as well. Just one day with snowfall on the 31 Jan, and it was a very shortlived affair, very wet in consistency and it barely settled, within 2 hours it melted. A woeful winter. Even high ground up to around 600 metres struggled to see any snow cover, though above 700 metres it was preety decent thanks to the incessant bouts of precipitation and temps just about at the right level for snowfall. At least last winter delivered a morning with decent snow cover on the 17 Jan, and a couple of snowfalls. We too had a surprise wet snowfall in late April.