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damianslaw

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damianslaw last won the day on November 29 2015

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  1. Just repeating what others have said - we are reverting back to very typical late April fayre in the days ahead. A changeable theme, with a westerly airstream becoming northwesterly, so feeling much cooler compared to the past few days, often quite wet or showery, slow moving outbreaks of rain at times and a gusty wind. All quite humdrum stuff, but there should be some brighter breaks in the east and south at times with temps quite respectable still. This time of year often brings quite cool cyclonic weather, as the atlantic settles into its annual slumber. It is a highly variable time of year, weatherwise it bring a real mixed bag, sometimes notably cool/cold, sometimes notably warm, sometimes very wet, sometimes bone dry.
  2. Have to say this April is turning into a notably very mild one for the south at least - I can't help but think the effects of the SSW have been a prime reason, a sluggish jetstream has remained in place and instead of March, the southern half of the UK has been on the warmer side of the polar front jet preety much all month so far. Given the effects of the SSW, perhaps no surprise to see it ending up quite at the more extreme end temp wise, it could have gone the other way and been a notably colder month. There is a chance we may end up with a value 3 degrees above the norm, on a par with 1987, 2007 and 2011. However, as others have said, it hasn't felt anywhere near the likes of those months, which brought consistent dry settled sunny conditions. This month has been far wetter and duller so far and the outlook is far from settled. For the northern half of the Uk temps look like ending up nearer the norm, and won't be remembered for much other than the short burst of warmth on Thursday/Friday.
  3. Feeling more like a July or August evening out there tonight - we've had some significant bolts of lightening in the past half hour, and a bit of rain, but nothing directly overhead. Loud rumbles of thunder. The radar has sprung into life over Cumbria, and there looks to be some potent stuff about to move north any minute now. Likely to be shortlived, but notable for so early in the season. Recent years have been poor on the thunderstorm front, indeed barely a clap in some years. Tomorrow will bring much fresher conditions. Today was a cracker, warm, light winds, blue albeit hazy skies. April and May often do deliver the most prolonged driest most settled conditions here, along with early September it seems. It all tends to go downhill in June..
  4. Always surprises me how cool the average CET value for April is, given it is a rapidly warming month, with the continent rapidly warming and has a propensity for less atlantic dominated conditions and hence a greater chance of southerly/south easterly flows, just as we have ahead which can bring notable warmth. Alas I suspect northerlies and northeasterlies and easterlies off a cold continent/arctic have greater likelihood of occurring hence reason for the low CET values. If the atlantic was more active at this time of year then a much milder average CET value would occur (just like happens in Dec/Jan which symbolises the power and likelihood of the atlantic at that time of year) with associated long fetch SW airstreams. May is the same.
  5. Interesting to note Met Office definition of a heatwave (sorry mods for going a bit off topic here, and you can reign me in or any other posts that might now discuss this..), by the definition, then yes preety much all of England and Wales will see a heatwave - with 5 consecutive days starting tomorrow being at least 5 degrees above the average. Is it 5 degrees above mean average or max? However, it is all relative, and subjective and when can we start calling a warm spell a heatwave, by this reckoning 5 days with maxes 16 degrees or above in March would constitute a heatwave.. wherever in the UK (given average maxes of 10-11 degrees in warmest parts) Also depends on where you are. The upcoming spell if it occurred in June, July or August wouldn't by this definition constitute a heatwave. My own benchmark is a threshold of about 25 degrees whatever the time of year wherever in the UK. Then is it a heatwave if it also wet or cloudy.. oh dear I've probably opened a can of worms.
  6. As forecast a rather poor day, but not quite the rainfest it could have been. Morning was miserable with bouts of moderate rain, but it petered out around lunchtime, and the rest of the day was just dull but dry. Tomorrow could be a slow start here, with some low cloud around, but expecting it to burn away by lunch, and the afternoon and evening promises to bring sunshine. Saturday could deliver the highest temp of the year here so far, thanks to more sunshine early on and a better wind direction.Thursday and Friday will bring cooler conditions with a SW flow, Cumbria never does well temp wise when winds are from the SW, but the rest of the NW can do very well.
  7. Just taking cursory glances at the models currently, given margins for sudden changes are very slim - unlike just 2/3 weeks back. We are still in a very amplified flow, classic ridge/trough/ridge scenario, with the the whole of UK locked on the warm side of the trough for the first time since January (the emphasis is on whole of UK, at times the south has been on the warmer but for the northern half of the UK we've had many weeks of being on the colder side - well since the SSW. So a few very pleasant days ahead, significant warmth for central/south/south east parts, and dry for most away from the far NW. Western parts will see above average temps, but tempered by winds coming off the atlantic/irish sea - its no nationwide blue sky dry warm spell ahead, very much a SE quarter affair. Into next week - signs heights will collapse into Europe with the jet firing back on a more zonal flow, ushering in cooler westerlies, with hints of the trough perhaps aligning more on a NW-SE path which would allow for heights to strengthen to the NW and we could see a colder northerly shot before the month is out- very par for the course at this time of the year. Enjoy the upcoming warmth (I'm not calling it a heatwave, that phrase is far too liberally used, just like the word 'freezing' in winter), will be nice to have some sunshine as well, a marked change in the feel of things is about to occur - that shift from winter base state to summer base state, with nature responding, expect plenty of leaf buds to suddenly burst into green foliage, bees and wasps will be buzzing around, the birds will make for a hive of activity in the skies as summer migrants return.. and we have the joy of May and June just ahead.
  8. Not a bad first half to the day, light splashes of rain, odd heavy downpour, however, from mid afternoon it has been very wet, long spells of moderate/heavy rain. Looking ahead, Thursday currently looking the best day here, tomorrow should be dry but quite cloudy with a stiff wind, Tuesday now looks preety wet and miserable, Wednesday could see some early drizzle and low cloud slowly lifting through the day, and Friday looks quite cloudy with more of SW flow.
  9. I'm always a little unnerved when we see significant warmth in April, recent years such as 2007 and 2011 have been followed by poor summers.. I feel much less nerved for summer prospects when significant warmth occurs in May. I think the effects of the SSW are still being felt and it is this which is giving rise to next weeks potential warm spell, we've got significant amplification in the flow, an elongated jet, something we have had since the SSW. The warmth in April 2007 and 2011 was sustained though - and I don't expect it to be the case this year. April sees the atlantic in its slumber and therefore has the greatest potential to deviate from average norms, the atlantic can be trapped for a long period, and if we see southerly airflows then significant warmth can quickly embed itself. Its always the month that catches everyone out! The least predictable of all.
  10. Mmm not the best of days, damp at times, some moderate rain late afternoon and a nagging wind again. Limited sunshine. Tomorrow looks quite drab as well, and unfortunately the weekend looks fairly cloudy threat of rain on Sunday. Looking forward to the promised drier warmer theme next week - hoping it holds for a decent weekend - would be sods law that it arrives when the kids go back to school and ends at the weekend... April is the most conducive month for dry settled conditions here, its rare to go an April without at least a few decent dry calm days.
  11. Models showing much consistency with heights set to build in from the east, ushering in a much milder SE feed of air from off the continent. Question is how warm might things get - much I suspect will depend on sunshine amounts, it could be quite a hazy type of set up, conversely it could be a blue sky type of set up - hard to tell. Mid 20's certainly plausible for central and south east parts. Longer term - signals of a classic switcharound from early summer southerly warmth to late winter northerly cold, heights look set to build to the NW, the trough will have nowhere to go but south again.
  12. Yesterday brought the first real warmth of the year, first day comfortable enough to go round with a light jacket, gosh even no jacket. Today a complete contrast back to grey wet leaden skies and a cold feel - not good. Rest of the week looking fairly dull though hopefully not especially wet - still very uninspiring, pity next weeks promised warmer drier spell doesn't look like arriving in time for the weekend - could really do with a fairweather pleasant one with some warmth. Still light levels are increasing markedly and we are nearing May - the best month of the year in my book. We will soon be seeing shades of green appearing in the countryside, next week will bring a marked sudden change to the look of it in this respect.
  13. Very much still feeling the effects of the Feb SSW at moment, hence not surprised to see a more blocked outlook holding sway, with no sign of atlantic zonal onslaughts any time soon - more par for the course in April mind, as I've said, now is the quietest period atlantic wise. Last year we had a shot of early summer warmth 9-11 April temps climbed to 24 degrees, so yes similiar temps quite possible next week in favoured spots in the SE if today's synoptics verify as shown. Just a hunch but wouldn't at all be surprised to see the warmer drier theme quickly exchanged for something much colder from the north - as often happens in April and May when we are not under the claws of the atlantic - spring switcharound territory, we will see quite a bit of WAA pumping north through east atlantic as the trough is held in situ.
  14. Yes a warmer than average month given model synoptics currently looking quite likely even at this early stage, especially given the fact that April is one of the months that tends to see a rapid warming in the rolling average from start to finish. We do have quite cool SST values around our shores though and the continent isn't warming up quite as much as recent years, so perhaps temps not yielding the potential high values they could do under similar synoptics in other years, but a finish at least 1 degree, possibly 2 degrees above the 61-90 average value quite plausible.. but as ever we could see a northerly plunge second half of the month as well - such is April, the most fickle month of the year when southerlies can become northerlies and we can go from winter cold to summer warmth in a flick of a switch. So always best to hold reserve until later in the month.
  15. Fairly typical April synoptics on offer - i.e. less of atlantic driven conditions, and more of a blocked set up holding sway. In the short term, we have the trough plaguing the UK unfortunately bringing bouts of rain and much cloud, and with an easterly wind, not feeling very pleasant, however, towards the end of the week, the trough is squeezed out and we see a drier SE flow take hold ushering in some nice Spring warmth with temps widely in the teens for all, possibly and some welcome sunshine and dry weather. Divergence then takes place, with ECM maintaining the dry warmer outlook, GFS showing a colder unsettled evolution eventually with heights retrogressing towards Greenland. My hunch is something more akin to ECM, but with heights further west, which could then either sink, stay in situ or indeed retrogress NW. GFS might therefore be onto the right trend but perhaps too eager to bring it in.. Overall mid April is looking very springlike and will herald the start of a major shift in general feel of things, when we can shrug of the last vagaries of the winter season and move into the warmer half of the year (late April - late October) and indeed generally the sunnier most settled and often driest third of the year (late April-late July).
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