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About damianslaw

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  1. autumn

    Autumn 2016 looks like starting on a fairly benign note, with a generally mild SW flow taking hold and a fairly weak ineffectual atlantic, all par for the course it seems nowadays, early September year after year seems to bring generally the most 'quiet' weather of the year.. I find early-mid September the most trying time of the year weather watching wise, the only point of interest tends to be the sudden development of hurricanes, but we've had very little such activity since 2005, hence why our Septembers since then in the main have started on such a quiet note. Looking at some of the long range forecasts, it does seem we may see more in the way of anticyclonic conditions dominating at least during the first half of the autumn, mid atlantic heights putting a break on the atlantic in the main, but with some temporary breakdown weak attacks from the NW, but we should expect more pronounced attacks as the autumn wears on as you would expect which could bring down some cold shots. Purely speculative, but my hunch for the 3 months is (similiar to GP forecast): September - a dry mild month especially in the SE, brief wetter interludes in the NW keeping it more nearer average in Scotland, N Ireland and most probably here, but still nothing especially wet or windy or cool. October - a similar theme to September, heights strong to the SW ridging into southern parts on occasion to give dry mild conditions, but the north more prone to atlantic attacks again, perhaps a storm or two before the month is out. November - quite unsettled more so in the north, strong mid atlantic heights with a NW-SE tracking jet, colder interludes for the north, some frosty weather at times. Not expecting much in the way of continental airstreams invading the UK this autumn, due to the propensity for mid atlantic heights and the trough to invade over the top and into the N Sea/scandi. Thankfully neither expecting those awful long drawn moist SW airstreams and there copious rainfall, setting the ground work for winter flooding - last November was terrible here - happy to see a mid atlantic ridge in this respect!
  2. Its been a summer bookended by decent weather, but with much mediocrity within the central core for the Lake District. Early June was very good, abundant sunshine, temps in the low 20's and lots of dry weather. Mid June saw a change to more typical unsettled conditions and rather cool at times, with much less in the way of sunshine, this pattern continued right through until early August in the main, albeit with the odd temporary blip, 19 July heat was a one day wonder, however, since mid August its been very decent (apart from Fri-Mon last week which brought localised flooding), much more in the way of warm dry sunny weather. Overall, a half decent summer, better than last year, not quite as good as 2013 and 2014 which delivered much more in the way of sustained very warm dry sunny conditions, but better than 2007-2012 summers. We've had very few very wet days and as I said apart from last Saturday and Monday just gone, no localised flooding events. Sunshine levels have though been quite depressed, especially during July.
  3. Odd day, bone dry under a heavy grey cloak of cloud until the last half hour which has turned wet, but fairly light rain all the while. Very still calm conditions throughout making for quite a strange feeling. The outlook for the next few days continues to improve though, Saturday was forecast to be a bit of a washout,but the front is now forecast to stay just to our SE, meaning we could end up with quite a decent day, well at least dry. Sunday also may end up dry, and Monday might stay dry as well with the threat of a shower. Last weekend was shocking so we deserve a decent one this weekend, all good news for the tourist economy, August Bank Holiday is probably the busiest one of the whole year here.
  4. autumn

    SST values across much of northern atlantic are significantly above average especially off the eastern USA seaboard and around Greenland, and the cold pool to our NW has evaporated somewhat. Would be good to match up the current SST profile with other years. Not sure how this might affect things, but I think its quite a different set up to the last 3 autumns, perhaps we may see a weaker jetstream and a propensity for stronger heights over east atlantic, with a resultant amplified flow - following on from the summer pattern, with flips between mild and cold.
  5. An eerie form of evening light - looking across to the central feels, there is an ominous orange glow on the distant horizon with darkened skies in the foreground and the peaks of the fells silohetted against the orange. Rain radar shows moderate rain falling over central lakes, but it can't be, all very odd. Its been an odd day daylight wise, very still air, no cloud movement just a stagnant grey cloud cover making for very dim light. I've not liked the feel of today at all..
  6. Yes, a real deluge over the last 24 hours, surface water evident in the usual hotspots and lots of drains not coping well. Must have had easily a couple of inches, totals not seen for quite some time, and reminiscent of autumn and winter rainfall days, doesn't bring back pleasant memories.. certainly not a day you want to see on a Saturday in August, overall its been a total write off low temperatures and gusty winds making for very miserable conditions. The shops and streets of Windermere ominously quiet for a August Saturday. Skies are a gloomy dark grey now another sign autumn is on its way.
  7. I thought this year was forecast to see a more active hurricane season than many recent ones? What has caused the long run of very quiet seasons - is this normal? 2005 was the last active one I think..
  8. Fingers crossed we don't see a relentless surge of mild southwesterlies or southerlies in October and November, which would deliver woeful conditions here, incessant rain, low cloud, poor visibility and generally dull miserable conditions, mind its the safest bet given our weather on balance predominantly arrives from a SW quarter. We shall see. The last 3 autumns have seen cold SST values to the NW of us and in the main have delivered very mild conditions and at times very wet conditions, but this year things are quite different. Its just one factor but would be good to know which years had a similiar SST profile going into autumn as we have now.
  9. Oh dear, worst day of the summer so far here, incessant and very heavy rain, gusting winds with many leaves and twigs strewn around, and a temperature max of 14 degrees, is it October already? Thankfully we've been spared days such as this one so far, but typical it has to occur on a Saturday in August, good though it isn't bank holiday Saturday. I think many will be surprised at just how bad things have been here so far today in the Lake District.
  10. Shockingly woeful summers day here so far, incessant rain throughout, gusting blustery winds - lots of leaves and twigs stripped off trees, and cool temperatures, currently just 14.1 degrees. It feels more like early October, its days like this which can break businesses around here who rely on making there most money on weekend days in the height of the summer season. Many local events called off. Easily the worst summer day we've had so far this year. It seems bizarre how a similiarly wet blustery day in December can produce warmer temperatures than one on the 20 August as occured last year!
  11. Four very good days on the trot, pity we have had to wait about 7 weeks for a run of such days in succession - the 19 July warmth was a one day wonder.. Definately the best spell of weather since early June here. Temps low 20's and lovely milky blue skies and no wind - this evening's sun was a superb red colour, indeed the last few nights have produced wonderful sunsets. Alas tomorrow is forecast to be very different, and the weekend looks a washout here especially Saturday.. its all the wrong way round this week.. Looking at the outlook for next week - overall summer 2016 most likely to be classed as very average here, not too wet, not too dry, average temps overall with some brief warm spells, sunshine levels though have been disappointing. We have had only one day with thunderstorms, so again a very quiet summer on the thunder front, also thankfully no flash flooding, or heavy downpours - a rather benign summer, with absolutely nothing memorable so far.
  12. Promising signs from today's charts if you like very warm dry weather. After this weekend's unsettled phase - very annoying timing... we continue to maintain an amplified flow with the trough becoming unstuck to our west allowing warm air advection to penetrate through the country from the south - charts a little reminscent of the very short warm blip around 19 July, but unlike then the trough is shown to be a weaker and more westwards positioned affair, which would deliver a longer spell of very warm dry conditions - how warm remains the question, but low 30's in some favoured southern spots a distinct possibility, given the continent is at is warmest at this time of year, and with the added effect of SST values nearing there warmest values of the year combined with ground temps being there warmest, and the ground being very dry.. Late August heat has been a rarity for a long time. Longer term - not sure we will maintain the warm dry theme through the bank holiday, one very plausible outcome would be the trough to fizzle in situ or sink further south allowing heights to build to the north and north west, as the jetstream is forced under the ridge, the outcome would be a much cooler airstream. In amplified set ups there is always a fine line between very warm and something much cooler - southerlies can often be replaced by northerlies very quickly and vice versa - we often see such flips in spring, rather than late summer mind..
  13. A lovely summers day here, temps in the low 20's lots of sunshine, no wind, clear visibility - shame such days have been fairly scarce so far this summer. A beautiful summer evenings, calm and clear, fells etched black against a stunning golden red orange crimson sunset - again few such evenings during much of the summer. Light levels are now dropping in earnest mind, a similiar evening just a month ago would be keeping it light until 10.30pm, alas curtains firmly drawn now.
  14. Thanks for posting the Feb 5 1986 bbc forecast footage. A full on proper easterly that didn't relent until the start of March. Odd how Bill Giles mentioned coldest weather in Holland.. Nightime minima was held up thanks to cloud cover, but very cold minima did occur a a few days later and much more so later in the month, when sub-freezing maxima were still being recorded, charts quite similiar to March 2013. I don't quite remember Feb 86, but have vague recollections of it being a cold frosty month, we were sheltered from the snowy easterlies and it is probably due to the limited snow it doesn't hold much memory. My memories of the weather only go back to Jan 87. Though I do sort of remember the cold snowy Jan and Feb 85 and the very dry warm sunny summer of 1984, and conversely the wet summer of 1985. We've had no very cold February since 1986, 1991, 1994 and 1996 produced cold snowy easterlies but nothing sustained, likewise Feb 09 and Feb 12, the latter two almost carbon copies, with very cold snowy first halves followed by major turnarounds mid month, with very mild second halves. Feb 91 also quite similiar though the depth of cold was very severe from the 5-11, but again conditions relented mid month, and we saw quite average/mild temps second half, but not on the scale of 09 and 12. Had the synoptics of March 2013/early April 2013 occurred about 6 weeks earlier, then Feb 2013 would have possibly rivalled Feb 1986, alas the cold came too late, though Feb 2013 was preety cold overall.
  15. Some of the models are showing a very unsettled weekend ahead, good job its not bank holiday weekend, indeed some charts look reminscent of august bank holiday 1986, with a deep low and gales.