Supercell 89
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Posts posted by Supercell 89
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I'm a little puzzled as to why the meto and beeb are predicting only snow for high ground for the majority of the week. Unless I'm missing something the models to me suggest snow at lower levels at times throughout most the week. Wednesday and Friday morning being the only periods we are not under the -5C line.
It is a tricky set up but I'm just a little puzzled. Friday morning could be interesting however if that low tracks further south or the cold air digs in quicker than currently projected.
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Beginning to wonder with region 3.4 being +3.0C and region 1+2 being 1.5C whether this may cause the response from the El Nino to be more modoki like? As in previous years the temperature difference between those regions must have been the same?
The last week the Aleutian Low seems to have drifted further west with High Pressure ridging into Alaska.
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Certainly going to be an interesting few weeks and winter ahead.
Just read a paper from Cohen on wave 1 and wave 2 activity as part of my dissertation topic and seeing what the general patterns precede each type of polar vortex disruption which was very interesting.
I did think last week the current patterns look very similar to what happens prior to a splitting event and continue to look even more in line with what they normally see (although I'm still learning so I could be off the mark). However one thing i have found is that El Nino year feature predominately wave 1 activity whilst La Nina favour Wave 2 which is interesting.
In case anybody is interested in reading the paper
http://web.mit.edu/jlcohen/www/papers/CohenandJones_JC12.pdf
Link to mean zonal wind anomalies and wave 1/2 annual activity
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/
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Just had a nice blustery shower go through Reading. The first interesting weather event I've seen since we had the thundersnow in February
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With regards to the 97/8 nino does anyone know what phase other factors were in eg QBO, PDO etc. Will the overall global pattern influence be the same? I seem to have a view in back of my mind that strong El Nino isn't a cold winter bringer for UK/NW Europe? Any thoughts or facts folks that dispel those fears
regards
BFTP
The QBO was +ve and transitioned to -ve during the second half of the winter. The PDO was +ve all the way through which is pretty normal for El Nino, particularly strong ones.
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It will be interesting to see how the warm STT's off the west coast of North America interact with the strengthened ST jet during the winter months and how that has an influence further down the line for Europe.
From what i've looked into +QBO winters combined with El Nino are generally mostly mild for western Europe but It depends on how other signals such as the stratosphere, solar output ect all interlink.
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I think the PDO its likely to stay +ve during the summer however it may wane slightly in comparison with recent months before strengthening again providing the El Nino follows suit.
Will be interesting to see how summer pans out, with a -qbo and a strong positive pdo combination I personally think we'll see a mid-atlantic trough and euro high set up for most the summer with the trough drifting west every so often but thats just my humble opinion. I don't favour winter being cold despite some of the suggestions floating around today. The last +ve qbo winter with an el nino was 2006/07.
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I think I'll have to go for
1) Broken Bow - Would loved to have seen this one!!
2) Limon HP - Love the turquoise streak through it
3) Campo - A bit of bias towards this one
have a very similar photo to Dribbley of that one -
I find it interesting that this El Nino struggled to get going and is pretty much vanishing before really getting anywhere, I wonder if its the atmosphere not really playing ball and wanting to go back into a more La Nina state or after that massive kelvin wave last spring there was nothing for a few months and the momentum was lost until the autumn, or a combination of both.
The the strength of the +ve PDO I think can be explained mostly by the kelvin waves. Please excuse my rather amateur annotations.
Looking back at last year the PDO was only weakly negative prior to January which is when we saw that huge kelvin wave appear, (think it appeared just before January). Following that the PDO gradually became quite strongly positive by May. In the early summer when the kelvin wave finished it was followed by a brief lull, which saw the PDO values drop during June, July & August before a further round of kelvin waves appeared during the late summer onwards and another sharp increase in the PDO was seen and we had the weak El Nino forming.
The large values of the PDO to me suggest that we should be seeing a strong ENSO event but whatever seems to be watering down the effects of the El Nino isn't necessarily having the same impact on the PDO, possibly?
I'm not an expert and I don't know the full answers but thats just my humble thoughts and thought i'd put my two pence worth in. But if this is true then I doubt we are seeing a longterm trend emerge and it could just be a blip in an otherwise prolonged -ve state and once these kelvin waves weaken and stop we may well see the PDO swing back to a -ve state, knockers post suggests the atmosphere is starting to tip that way again, bit early to jump to conclusions though.
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Well I think i'm the only one who's not downbeat by tonights output. Its not mild, its not wet Instead its dry and cool/cold at least for another week, ok its not crisp sunshine but who knows it might be and i'd rather have this any day over boring mild crap southwesterlies.
I don't think this High pressure will be going anywhere fast, have been wondering whether its persistence may have a feedback on the stratosphere in the long run, plenty to be optimistic about yet
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Still snowing lightly but got a brief heavier burst. Not sure whats going on as its not on radar :S
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Light snow still but has gone up a notch coming down thickly now and getting a dusting on the ground
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Light snow here which is trying to settle and has done on the usual favoured spots although we did have a brief heavier burst that started to stick everywhere. Looks like Oxford has nailed it pretty well again, think we may have this on and off for the next hour may end up with a nice dusting
Amazing how this has turned out, wasn't expecting anything today at all.
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Thundersnow in a squall amongst the palm trees at Torquay!
Please tell me I've not missed a thundersnow event back at home! Hoping for something here at uni later tonight
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Interesting how they've said its been a weak El Nino since summer as the STT's haven't really changed very much since then and remained persistently warm along with the north pacific due to it being in its positive phase, so it does make sense but NOAA don't for the moment seem to agree.
What is more interesting is how that huge kelvin wave never materialised into a full blown enso event, i'm sure that will be one of strong research interest over the next year, given how strong that wave was, I wonder if the warm STT's around Indonesia were part of the reason?
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Well here's one article that stated some scientists models were predicting an ice free arctic by 2013 based on their models.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7139797.stm
There is a more realistic response from another scientist which states by 2030 being a likely date in the same article but I also seem to remember at the time there was a lot of "ice free arctic within 5 years" doom and gloom nonsense being thrown about because of the record low levels that summer.
Back to the here and now though, nice to see we are still above the last 5 years of sea ice extent, will be interesting to see how it holds up over the winter, especially if it ends up being widely cold across Europe.
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Apart from Jan, Feb and August this year hasn't been too bad in Reading. Had a very rhythmic pattern from March till late July of it being warm, dry and mostly sunny for a couple of weeks before getting a cooler unsettled period for about a week with a thunderstorm chucked in. Almost broke my record amount of storms seen in the UK this year with 11 so far, just one off my all time of 12 though we've come agonisingly close so many times this year if I was to count the amount of days i've heard thunder in the distance from a storm that dogged us at the last minute we'd be on around 17 by now.
But before I drift further off topic, if I was to pick some forgettable years 2008 and 2012 are the top two followed by 2011. Virtually no storms, no heat, and no, particularly 2011 and 2008 reasonable snow, in fact 2011 was snowless down in South Devon, just lots of damp, mild weather. If this summer had turned out to be as bad as those years I'd be picking this year for sure.
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The wave 1 activity is pretty unusual in the 35 years recorded in the Merra dataset. Only 6 years even hold a candle to 2014 with similar wave activity during October, even then not as strong as current projections on the Berlin site.
Sounds very interesting, what years are they may I ask? I'd be interested to look to see how the following winters panned out.
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Pretty sure I saw some distant flashes south of here but not much other than a tiny blob on the radar but there was definitely a big flash.
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Just heard a rumble but not sure which direction it was coming from, i'm guessing from the south
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Just been awoken by a loud clap of thunder but its done nothing since but rain a little.
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Had a brief thundery shower with three flashes and bangs and that was it. Weakened by the time it got here but still better than nothing would like to think we may get something later but looks unlikely
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25.5c here currently which is almost 2c up on yesterday. If it keeps like this i wouldn't be surprised if we reached 28c possibly even 29c.
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Hottest day of the year so far today by 0.3c and the second day this year with 80F being breached, quite unusual in that there was a strong easterly breeze throughout the day yet it almost touched 28c but still it was pretty much a perfect mid-summers day here couldn't ask for better! Hoping for the same the next 2-3 days before it cools down a touch.
Some convection tried to get going this afternoon but didn't quite manage it however Saturday could be one to watch for this area as well as much of central souther parts as it looks a very similar set up to the magnificent storm fest we got during the 14th June during the early hours of the morning so fingers crossed we may get at least a few rumbles saturday night.
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have a very similar photo to Dribbley of that one 
E.N.S.O. Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Looks as though the PDO is finally starting to show signs of beginning to turn negative at last. Cold anomalies beginning to develop off the west coast of the states and across the mid-pacific. Very similar to the post 97/98 El Nino event.
If this continues then this could give a boost for La Nina to strengthen during the Autumn.