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Cleeve Hill

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  • Gender
  • Location
    Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham and Antigua until 2020.
  • Interests
    Football (Bristol City) Cricket, Skiing, Travel
  • Weather Preferences
    Extremes, the very hot and the very cold.

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  1. Cleeve Hill

    Hurricane Beryl

    Beryl is such a small storm that it could easily weaken with shear or Sahara dust. It looks like that is what is happening this morning. It's track goes over Dominica which is still recovering from Maria last September.
  2. I'm senior insurance underwriting mgr for a leading property & casualty insurer in the Caribbean. Trust me it's not as boring as it may sound. 3 year contract. After Irma and Maria last year the Caribbean needs a quiet year.
  3. Cleeve Hill

    Hurricane Beryl

    Fortunately its a v small storm, but pretty impressive how quickly it formed. Local forecasters are saying it will fizzle out before leeward islands thanks to Sahara dust.
  4. So from nowhere there are two areas to watch. 1. South of Bermuda which has a 50% chance of development and then a Cape Verde system. Only yesterday this had a 20% chance of developing, today that is now 70%. looks a well organised feature which is due to become a tropical depression before encountering less favourable conditions. Its a bit surprising this one as ocean temps are generally lower this season, but the system is well south where the SST are nearer normal. Hopefully it will just bring lots of rain for the leeward islands to ease the drought here.
  5. Interesting comments. I'll follow this thread over the next 6 months and hoping those Majors avoid the Caribbean Islands. The Economic loss for these small island threatens so many businesses and people. St Maarten, Anguilla, BVI, Dominica are still struggling to cope. Puerto Rico is worse but I dont know what the latest is there. We are a leading property insurer, based in Antigua and a quiet year would suit everyone or if there are going to happen lets see them keep south i.e Barbados, St Lucia.
  6. It’s just you ! The next 3/4 weeks is what most on net weather look forward to.
  7. Keep the faith folks. Its still on the cards !
  8. Temp forecasts for Oslo, Stockholm, Moscow & Copenhagen all heading colder towards end of next week, suggesting a pressure rises in that area.
  9. For those that follow joe bastardi on twitter, he is pretty bullish about a v cold feb somewhere in the N hemisphere. He’s talking about MJO groing into 8,1,2,3 during February. Also M Ventrice showing GEFS going strongly negative NAO into Feb, although ECM not supporting this.
  10. But isn’t the GFS 18 showing snow for Sunday from N Wales to the east Anglia ? Is this happens it would be the 3rd or 4th snow event this winter, which ain’t bad.
  11. Cleeve Hill

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    With a drop in zonal winds forecast and ridging into Greenland being discussed by Cohen & Ventrice this looks like the form horse to me.
  12. Cleeve Hill

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    https://mobile.twitter.com/DrAHButler/status/950120680636538880/photo/1 Looks like those zonal winds will be dropping considerably later this month. Ties is with GP, Tamara & Catacols ideas.
  13. Cleeve Hill

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    That is the norm for a La Nina winter (you could say the cold spell in first week of Dec reflected that) but its not as straightforward as this, and there are now expectations of colder spells Jan & Feb.
  14. Cleeve Hill

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    Don't think so. It was MJO related
  15. Cleeve Hill

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    Funny that, as there's a lot of chatter about a Greenland high coming. Source: J Cohen & M Ventrice on Twitter. Pretty reliable sources.