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Cleeve Hill

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  • Gender
  • Location
    Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL
  • Interests
    Football (Bristol City) Cricket, Skiing, Travel
  • Weather Preferences
    Extremes, the very hot and the very cold.

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  1. I worked for an Insurance co in Antigua for three years until the end of 2019. I was there for IRMA & MARIA in 2017. As you can imagine Hurricane season was the talk of the office for 5 months, but everyone was only really concerned about the first 3 weeks of September. That is the month for the monster CAT 5++. Tropical Storms or CAT 1 & 2 storms was not a big concern. Sahara Dust always suppressed storms in June & July before the main Cape Verde storms got going. I do worry about the Caribbean. There is a lot of poverty, a lot of uninsured properties and with COVID the tourist industry has taken a BIG hit. If the Islands were to get hit this year there would be unimaginable hardship.
  2. Countryfile forecast highlighting the uncertainty for Thursday with some models showing a system tracking across England generally M4 route. Mix of Snow and Rain if that was to come off. Cotswolds, Chilterns etc.
  3. I saw some stats the other day that say ECM & UKMO at 120 days is circa 95% / 93% accurate but that drop off v quickly to around 50% for anything after 168 +. O really wouldnt be too confident of anything over say 192.
  4. Good to see some changes showing up further down road. There is some talk on twitter of changes to the Strat and MJO. We're already starting to see increased heights forecast which should bring frost and fog and once we get the cold embedded we are in proper winter territory. It is only mid January folks.
  5. The ECM idea of Scandi blocking mid Jan was also something GP hinted at a few weeks ago. There is plenty of Weather Lore about January. Here's a few; A January warm, the Lord have mercy A summerish January, a winterish spring If birds begin to whistle in January, frosts to come
  6. All - Its really not a bad start to Winter. European Alps are looking good for the Xmas period and we dont say that v often. The southerly tracking jet has done the business of the ski industry. Still lots to play for
  7. You can see now why we don't have general elections in December !
  8. A few hours ago John holmes posted about the NOAA NH pressure profile which is probably the most reliable forecasting tool we see. These were showing height rises around Greenland which is good enough for me if we are looking for something colder. Lets not get too bothered by one GFS 06 run
  9. At a height of 330 Metres I reckon the tops of Cleeve Hill could see some of the white stuff tonight/tomorrow.
  10. Here some interesting info for the Coldies. If this comes to fruition then no + NAO and a wintery spell coming.
  11. I'm back in Antigua on Saturday. Was hoping for a quiet season but it's looking the opposite unfortunately. We've already issued a no new business note to all our Caribbean islands. In case you're wondering I work for a Caribbean insurer.
  12. Re Florence it seems the Bermuda / azores high is forecast to intensify. If so then instead of turning NW, Florence is due to stay more westerly and may be impact East coast US in the future. Certainly one to watch. With Florence already at 17 degrees N its v unlikely to effect the Caribbean. ?
  13. Re Florence, theres now talk of it turning more West in a few days as the bermuda/azores Ridge intensifies moving Florence more towards the US than north Atlantic / UK. Sst's are above average so any tropical system heading into the north Atlantic is likely to have more of an impact
  14. Hurricane Florence in the Atlantic heading your way. That will shake things up.
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