tundra

It sounds like winter may not be over yet then. The models seem to be picking these signals up quite well with a very very promising looking ECM run this morning of something alot colder and more wintry. How long do you see this signal for a southerly displaced jet to last GP.

Again much appreciated for taking time out to explain these atmospheric conundrums.

Very much appreciated GP thanks. So would i be right in saying that roughly speaking the GWO is a measure of glamm, mountain torque, and frictional torque combined.

I must admit to not understanding fully the implications of all the different teleconnections and how they interlink with one another. I'm sure i have read in past posts how a rising glamm is good for blocking then next i read that a sinking glamm is what you need,so at times very confusing. Last winter the glamm went through the floor and we all know how that turned out, although whether that was from the glamm or cold stratosphere and strong vortex i don't know. Could someone explain what the GWO is in relation to the glamm, mountain torque and friction torque, i think thats the lot. I was under the impression you needed angular momentum to mix with the polar westerlies which would disrupt the zonal westerlies adding warming and blocking at higher latitudes.

Nearly mid July and still no melt pools in sight. Obviously the Arctic is cooler this year. Well to most people that is.

The very simple point i was trying to make was that judging by the latest NSIDC update they do not expect a repeat of 2007. Below is a paragraph from their update, i posted this before but unfortunately it got lost amonst the rubbish that followed. "This contrast between high and low pressure is broadly similar to the atmospheric circulation pattern that set up in 2007. In 2007, that pattern contributed to a significantly accelerated decline in ice extent during July, and a record minimum low in September. Will the same acceleration in ice melt occur this year? If so, a new record low minimum extent becomes more likely. So far, an acceleration has not been observed. As July progresses, the Arctic sun gets lower on the horizon, incoming solar energy decreases, and the chances of such a rapid decline become less likely". Why are some posters finding this so difficult to understand? I am not the one arguing. Cheers.

What i wrote was a reasonable reflection on what the NSIDC up date was saying, if some posters on here find it hard to understand the English language then perhaps a open university coarse or further college coarse in English may help. Just an idea. :lol:

This is the whole paragraph from the NSIDC update."This contrast between high and low pressure is broadly similar to the atmospheric circulation pattern that set up in 2007. In 2007, that pattern contributed to a significantly accelerated decline in ice extent during July, and a record minimum low in September. Will the same acceleration in ice melt occur this year? If so, a new record low minimum extent becomes more likely. So far, an acceleration has not been observed. As July progresses, the Arctic sun gets lower on the horizon, incoming solar energy decreases, and the chances of such a rapid decline become less likely."

Arctic ice seems to be holding up very well although i get the feeling this is much to the annoyance of some posters. The latest update from NSIDC suggest similar weather conditions to that of 2007 but without the substantial melt that took place. They also suggest that as we go through July with a increasingly lower sun angle we will not see a repeat of the same. This is very, very encouraging as the uptick in summer Arctic sea ice retention could well continue despite similar conditions to 2007 and a lot less muti year ice in the Arctic. Um strange that. Still nothing to shout about until August and September are in but still perhaps another pointer towards a cooler climate on the way.

Date: 6 Jul, 2009 Average SOI for last 30 days : -0.63 Average SOI for last 90 days : -0.17 Daily contributor to SOI calculation: 6.96 --------------------------------------------- Monthly Average SOI Values Apr: 8.04 May: -4.97 Jun: -2.78 Date Tahiti Darwin Daily** 30 day 90 day Av.SOI Av.SOI 6-Jul-2009 1014.98 1012.90 6.96 -0.63 -0.17 SOI AND ESTIMATE 15 DAYS TO INFLUENCE NORTH AMERICA 16 June 2009 Daily contributor to SOI calculation : 5.97 15DAY=July01st 17 June 2009 Daily contributor to SOI calculation :-9.77 15DAY=July02nd 18 June 2009 Daily contributor to SOIcalculation:-20.46 15DAY=July03rd 19 June 2009 Daily contributor to SOIcalculation:-23.76 15DAY=July04th 20 June 2009 Daily contributor to SOIcalculation:-19.61 15DAY=July05th 21 June 2009 Daily contributor to SOIcalculation:-11.18 15DAY=July06th 22 June 2009 Daily contributor to SOI calculation : 6.61 15DAY=July07th 23 June 2009 Daily contributor to SOI calculation:11.04 15DAY=July08th 24 June 2009 Daily contributor to SOI calculation:12.44 15DAY=July09th 25 June 2009 Daily contributor to SOI calculation:20.53 15DAY=July10th 26 June 2009 Daily contributor to SOI calculation:25.02 15DAY=July11th 27 June 2009 Daily contributor to SOI calculation:31.28 15DAY=July12th 28 June 2009 Daily contributor to SOI calculation:34.87 15DAY=July13th 29 June 2009 Daily contributor to SOI calculation:32.62 15DAY=July14th 30 June 2009 Daily contributor to SOI calculation:21.58 15DAY=July15th 01 July 2009 Daily contributor to SOI calculation :12.62 15DAY=July16th 02 July 2009 Daily contributor to SOI calculation :10.40 15DAY=July17th 03 July 2009 Daily contributor to SOI calculation : 2.95 15DAY=July18th 04 July 2009 Daily contributor to SOI calculation : 1.85 15DAY=July19th 05 July 2009 Daily contributor to SOI calculation : 8.00 15DAY=July20th 06 July 2009 Daily contributor to SOI calculation : 6.96 15DAY=July21st

How can you get annoyed at such silly wind up posts, read the posts for what they are then you can not help but laugh.

I have read the posts but i have found nothing new or informative as you claim unless of coarse you are counting some posters own pet theories that they have on the subject. But hey thats great you can post away for the next millennium going round and round in circles while in realtime the real science and data moves forward. All the information is out there there is no excuse for ignorance in todays internet age, unless of coarse for some posters it goes against their beliefs or home grown theories. Oh by the way my last post was not ment to be insulting when you keep reading that sort of rubbish over and over it becomes nonsense.

Don't know if this has been posted already. Taken from WUWT this is a slide show from a Jasper Kirkby of CERN explaining the centre's cloud experiment. http://indico.cern.ch/getFile.py/access?re...mp;confId=52576

What nonsense i think i will refer to you as Mr gullible from now on.

Judging by the web cam pictures that Chris Knight posted, unlike last year the snow in the high Arctic has not started to melt yet let alone the ice. This could soon change though if the next 10 days modeled by the GFS is anywhere close to varifying.