Thundery wintry showers

Lincoln is still in a dry slot, temperature has dropped slightly and stable at 2.2C with the odd bit of drizzle, but a NE wind has really picked up here, even though for now the clouds are still slowly moving from south to north. I can see this dry slot closing in from both the south and the north-east, as the onshore wind is starting to send the precipitation NE-SW near the east coast of Yorkshire and into NE Lincolnshire.

A north-easterly wind is really picking up in South Shields judging by Neil Bradshaw's website: http://www.southshields-weather.co.uk/Today's_weather.htm This hints at the change that will be spreading south through the region between midnight and 6am tomorrow. It still looks pretty marginal at low levels in the far north of England judging by the reports from there, though. We'll have to see if it becomes less marginal on the northern flank of the system as the whole lot pushes south.

Sleety mix in Lincoln now, temperature 2.4C.

The band has hit Lincoln but the temperature has held steady at 2.3C and it's turned mainly to rain, so there appears to be slightly warmer air associated with the heavier stuff coming up from the south (I half-expected that this might be the case). It could well turn to snow as it heads northwards though and collides with the colder air which is forecast to start edging southwards again towards midnight.

Although Lincoln is still up at 2.3C as the main band of >3mm/h precipitation approaches, there are flakes coming down, so will be interesting to see if the temperature drops as it comes over. I don't expect any lying snow from it though, it's really after midnight when temperatures start to get more favourable in this part of the region.

2.3C at the University of Lincoln now, equalling the high that we had at around 9am before the first lot of sleet/snow arrived. There's a pretty hefty band approaching from the south right now, I reckon it will probably be sleety rather than snowy especially as the dew point has crept well above freezing as well, but it remains to be seen whether evaporative cooling can come into play.

There is a dry-ish slot at the moment, it's currently over Lincoln. I'm not going to complain though, for with the temperature at 2.1C it is unlikely that precipitation would give lying snow here unless it was particularly heavy. Around midnight looks interesting with heavy precipitation modelled and the latest model runs starting to send that colder air back southwards.

The latest GFS (12Z) looks like it's upped the potential for snow at low levels in my opinion, as instead of the warm air pushing a little further north between 18Z and 00Z today, if anything it sinks southwards a little, while precipitation is still forecast to be substantial in west and south Yorkshire and west Lincolnshire. In addition to this, much of the region retains a fair amount of precipitation through to 06Z when the cold air digs in. Still very marginal at low levels of course, but even a fractionally colder outcome could lead to a higher percentage of us waking up to a covering tomorrow.

After what I've seen today I'm tempted to think that if I see significant falling snow early tomorrow morning, especially if it produces limited slushy accumulations like today, it will be worth going for an early morning walk up towards Lincoln Cathedral as it seems that the higher elevation outweighs the increased urban heat island effect up there and they could have somewhat more lying snow in the nearby gardens. Might not want to risk going directly up Steep Hill while conditions are potentially slippery though.

Yes, I believe that with the warming trend in the UK climate, events that used to bring falling and lying snow to all levels away from coastal fringes now tend to be a lot more marginal on low ground. Indeed, I've just seen a stark illustration of this here in Lincoln. I live in downhill west Lincoln and saw an hour of moderate snow which deposited a bit of slush on the grass, but as it cleared I could see out of my north facing window that uphill areas of Lincoln to the west of Lincoln Cathedral, which are only about 30-40m higher up than I am, had white fields and a covering on many of the rooftops. It's still possible to get lying snow at low levels but it takes more exceptional cold temperatures than it used to, and in events such as today's, it results in snow cover being thinner, more slushy and shorter lived.

Looking at some of the latest model outputs, including the UKV, it looks like temperatures are forecast to increase a little in most parts of Yorkshire as well as Lincolnshire during the afternoon and evening, so low lying areas could see precipitation falling increasingly as sleet or rain rather than snow. North Yorkshire looks like holding onto the colder air with temperatures staying around freezing, so any precipitation in N Yorkshire should largely be snow, though precipitation looks like being more limited in N Yorkshire which will limit accumulations. On higher ground well inland, especially around the Pennines, this evening looks like being pretty snowy. Colder air comes back down from the north between midnight and 8am tomorrow morning which means that away from eastern coastal fringes, there will probably be a spell of snow to low levels and areas that see relatively heavy snow should wake up to a covering. Areas near sea level that dodge the heavier precipitation may not see lying snow though, so there are no guarantees, but I reckon for most of us at low levels tomorrow morning has a fair chance of producing a covering. Eastern coastal areas have a chance of seeing a covering from east coast snow showers behind the main band, though there's a good chance that there will be a thaw tomorrow afternoon as the sun gets out.

Not sure about the milder air heading further north, it's been falling predominantly as snow here in Lincoln and it's still only 1.2C here, though significant accumulations have been restricted to higher ground, so the colder air is still around to the south of Yorkshire. I think a more likely explanation for the marginality is that the GFS often slightly underdoes the temperatures in cold spells (both at the surface and at 850hPa level) until we get very close to the time, and some other models may also be guilty of this. In a setup like this, an increase in modelled temperatures of 0.5 to 1C would give an impression of things having shifted a bit northwards.

Snow has settled a little bit on some surfaces in Lincoln in the past half hour with the temperature dropping to 0.8C. Just some slushy deposits though, mainly on the grass.

I've been checking out South Shields and it's a familiar story, there was a covering there from east coast snow showers last night but it's all melting now as the E wind has helped the temperature up to 4.6C. http://www.southshields-weather.co.uk/Today's_weather.htm I'm in Lincoln at the moment and it's snowing quite heavily down here but not lying - it's very marginal at low levels.

It's been snowing for nearly an hour in Lincoln now but still not settling. I didn't expect much if any lying snow before Friday morning, so the outcome isn't a letdown in itself, but I have a nagging feeling that had this event happened in my childhood 30 years ago (when the UK climate was about 0.5C cooler) at least some of this snow would be accumulating on the ground. It's just that little bit too warm.

Slightly too warm for lying snow in Lincoln, it started off as sleet here with the temperature at the University's weather station rising to 2.3C, and as it got heavier it has turned to snow with the temperature falling to 1.5C, but really for lying snow it needs to be 1C or lower. But another slight correction south on the GFS means that the 0C 850hPa isotherm stays to the south of Lincoln throughout. I expect it to stay too marginal during the rest of today, but it could well sleet and snow for most of the day, and early tomorrow morning remains the most likely time to see lying snow here as the Arctic north/north-easterly kicks in.

Still snowing on and off at Lincoln, 1.1C at the University's weather station, not really settling but I noticed some slushy deposits on cars.

Yes, with each set of runs it's looking more and more likely that at least some of us will see more snow over the weekend, as the models are most likely being too progressive in pushing away the blocking high to the north-west and lows keep being corrected further south as we get near the time. This ICON shows the most widespread snow from it that I've seen so far. South and west Yorkshire away from the coast still looks to be the prime area tomorrow I reckon. The slight southward shift on the GFS 12Z puts Lincoln right on the predicted rain/snow boundary between 18Z and 00Z on Thursday/Friday with temperatures hovering around 1-2C. Meanwhile, it's back to sleeting and snowing here but not settling.

There's been a mix of graupel, sleet and snow in Lincoln since around 11am, none of it has settled with the temperature generally between 2.5 and 3.5C, but the Lincoln 2022/23 snow shield, as far as sleet/snow falling goes, has finally imploded. Not expecting lying snow here tomorrow as the general consensus is for the system to track a little too far north for that - probably wet snow at 2-3C during the daytime and then staying at 2-3C and turning to rain/sleet during the evening. Maybe if some of the heaviest snow passes over here around mid-afternoon, there could be a temporary slushy covering, but I wouldn't bet on it. But Friday morning looks like it has potential to deliver a covering here as the Arctic air digs in while solar heating is close to its weakest.

I note that the Met Office yellow warning area has expanded somewhat and extends all the way up from Bath/Cardiff to Glasgow.

As I see it, for inland parts of Lincolnshire the UKMO and ECMWF both point towards it being rather marginal on Thursday afternoon and evening due to daytime solar heating and then warmer air pushing in from the south, but suggest significant snowfall during the early hours of Friday as the Arctic air heads back south again and collides with the frontal system. As others have noted, south Yorkshire looks to be the sweet spot for an all snow event away from the east coast. North Yorkshire could also be heavily affected but significant precipitation is less guaranteed in the north of the region. GFS has things further north, meaning more snow for the north of the region but also more rain for the south. The latest UKV runs seem to side broadly with the GFS's interpretation. Thus, less disagreement on the specifics this morning but marginality for both the north (precipitation) and south (temperature) of the region means that even slight differences could make the difference between whether or not you see a snow cover. Some chances of snow for the S and E of the region today with showers moving in off the North Sea and the main band to the south possibly getting into Lincolnshire for a time (maybe even Yorkshire, but I doubt this), but probably not amounting to much. It would seem that most models seriously underestimated the chances of the North Sea generating showery activity until very recently. In the meantime I note that UKMO has moved into line with GFS in suggesting potential for another snow event into the weekend and early next week, with the system tracking further north than Thursday's but again followed by a pretty chilly northerly.

Still plenty of uncertainty over this low's track, and it is highly likely that among our contingent of snow lovers, some will hit the jackpot and some will be disappointed whatever happens. Living in Lincoln, my back yard is really on a knife edge - the runs that have the low tracking further south (e.g. ECM) have a high chance of snow here overnight Thursday/Friday, while the runs that have it further north (e.g. GFS 18Z) have rain falling through the overnight period with forward and backward edge snow. On the other hand, the runs that have the low further north bring more precipitation into northern England, much of which is forecast to be snow except near North Sea coasts. Here's the comparison between the GFS 12Z and 18Z for 00Z Friday: Meanwhile, while it's a long shot, I don't think the return to mild weather over the weekend is guaranteed, especially in Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England. The GFS 18Z shows that it wouldn't take much of a shift in the pattern to produce another northern flank snow event over the weekend and into Monday, and then another southward advance of the cold air, putting the return to mild weather off until the middle part of next week. It's called the "pub run" for a reason of course, but with the southward corrections of Thursday's system today, and the toning up of a subsequent northerly on Friday, I wouldn't rule out the possibility that it could require another frontal attack or two from the south-west to send the milder air across most of the country than is currently being modelled.

At this rate, there's a chance that the region could indeed get a second shot at a snow event on Saturday and/or Sunday. No guarantees of course, but with today's southward correction of Thursday's systems has come another northerly blast on Friday, keeping the cold air in place for when the next set of systems attack from the south-west. The ECM in particular shows quite high confidence in much milder air coming in by Sunday, but as the GFS 18Z shows, it wouldn't take much of a shift to change it into another northern flank snow event followed by another northerly early next week, putting the return of mild air off until the middle of next week.

Aye, GFS 18Z takes things further north. I wouldn't be too happy with this outcome in my back yard as for the Lincoln area the forecast temperatures and dew points point towards rain and 3C overnight Thursday/Friday, but the 18Z looks decidedly snowy in most parts of Yorkshire and on the higher ground of Lincolnshire. The track of this system is clearly far from settled, but the latest ICON and GFS 18Z point towards it being relatively unlikely that the eventual outcome will be even further south than the ECM 12Z showed, which was one point of concern.

Just checked out the UKV and its precipitation charts look very similar to this evening's ECM with the precipitation staying mainly to the south during the day on Thursday but spreading to all parts early on Friday morning, still a bit marginal for the SE of the region and near the coast but with snow for most, helped by nocturnal cooling. UKV also shows snow for inland parts of Lincolnshire and east Yorkshire tomorrow evening, seemingly from showers coming in off the North Sea to the north of the main band of rain/sleet/snow over southern England.