Thundery wintry showers

Got up to about 0.5cm, 80-90% snow cover, the same as during the event of the 26th/27th October. It's still just 0.7C now, but the snow has recently turned more sleety and the dusting on the ground has started to thaw- this is probably the end. Goodnight all!

Also true of Sandhutton so far- the 26th/27th October event gave about a centimetre of snow with 80-90% cover for a time, whereas the two events of December have so far given a very thin dusting- though I'm staying up for a bit to see if it can be beaten.

Light snow still, but getting a bit heavier now, and down to 0.6C. The radar shows that the heavier stuff is still just out to the W and SW so maybe a chance of seeing my first significant covering of the season (i.e. more than a slight dusting) before the inevitable rain washes it all away!

Moderate to heavy precipitation is set to hit Sandhutton by around 1am, but it's looking "touch and go" as to whether it will still be snow, and at cold enough temperatures for it to settle- it's already up to 0.7C.

Still very fine snow here, fluttering past a lamp post at the other side of my street- it's so light though that the smattering on the ground hasn't increased significantly.

There is a belt of heavy precipitation just to the WSW of here that looks like it will make a direct hit on North Yorkshire, but time is limited- the longer it holds off, the more likely it is that it will be rain once it arrives. Still just the odd bit of light "snizzle" at the moment.

Some light snow at Sandhutton in the past hour, though not heavy enough to make much of an impression- most of what's lying on the ground is still frost! Temperature rising though, currently at 0.3C.

I'm expecting a couple of hours or so of snow at my location (not convinced that much of it will settle though)- but I'll be surprised if it isn't rainy and devoid of snow cover at dawn tomorrow! Temperature has risen from -1.9C to -0.4C with the frontal system almost upon my location.

I have to admit that when I first saw this evening's UKMO 12Z run I had similar feelings to Kold, but when considering the way the pattern evolves, it was similar to how this morning's ECMWF 00Z evolved (as a couple of other members mentioned)- a rather more dicey evolution towards a potential return of cold wintry weather with the low pressure systems further north, but by no means a likely evolution into something mild. In essence there are three low pressure systems to watch out for over the next week, all set to dive NW-SE, and their precise positioning will be critical for whether we pick up cold enough airmasses from the north, and eventually north-east, to bring widespread snowfall. The first of these lows comes in tomorrow, and will bring us a chilly northerly flow on Tuesday and Wednesday with some embedded troughs possibly sending wintry showers a fair way inland from the North Sea, albeit with marginal temperatures. I think this low is pretty much "finalised" and that any changes to the outlook up until Wednesday will now be minor. The second low is set to come in during Thursday/Friday and this will probably generate some headaches due to being a fair way out. This will bring rain at low levels, perhaps with some snow on the eastern flank of the system, but again it may bring wintry showers into eastern areas in the northerly flow behind the system. The real forecasters' headache though is the low pressure system for next weekend. This low is progged by both GFS and ECMWF to bring a northerly outbreak followed by a north-east to easterly type as the low retreats SE, and this would bring a mix of sunshine and showers with a wintry mix next to windward coasts and falling/lying snow inland, but if the low ends up further north (as shown by tonight's UKMO and this morning's ECMWF run) then snowy potential may be rather more limited and we may not see the sinker allowing the north-easterly type to establish with high pressure from Iceland across to Scandinavia. Having discussed snow potential, also significant is the concern over future flooding resulting from active precipitation belts from the low pressure systems. On the whole, it doesn't look like there will be any excessive deluges over the coming week, but the second and third low pressure systems are associated with considerable uncertainty and so the possibility of the "at-risk" areas being hit by further persistent deluges cannot yet be ruled out.

I'm expecting a spell of snow over much of Yorkshire between 1 and 5am tonight, but suspect that it will all have turned to rain, except above a few hundred metres ASL, by 7am. Thus, those with traditional sleeping patterns may miss the snow altogether. There are more potential events further along the line though.

Presumably temperature inversions at work again- a layer of sub-zero temperatures close to the surface under evaporative cooling, but temperatures of 2 to 4C at about 200 metres above sea level. That said, I'm surprised that the showers didn't trigger substantial mixing out of the inversion sending surface temperatures above freezing.

Absolutely- it happens even more starkly in central Europe sometimes, where surface temperatures are at -5 to -10C despite 850hPa temperatures near 0C, and then a cold front comes in from the west, dropping the 850hPa values to -3 to -5C but in the meantime the surface temperature rises very sharply. There were clearly temperature inversions involved last night judging by the occurrence of mixed sleet/snow/freezing rain with surface temperatures around freezing.

I expect a spell of snow here overnight Sunday/Monday but also expect it to be back to rain by dawn- the milder air moves in quite quickly.

Nothing on the ground here this morning- it started off as snow, but soon turned to freezing rain and then ordinary rain as the air temperature crept above freezing. After the front had passed over the temperature rose to 2C (beating yesterday's max of 1.5C after all!) and it is currently 3C. It doesn't look like the snow lasted for long at South Shields either, despite much larger quantities.

Seems to have turned to a mix of snow and freezing rain now (implying a temperature inversion with sleet aloft falling into below-freezing temperatures), could well make things pretty icy tomorrow. I had about 80% snow cover ten minutes ago, now it's nearer 60%.

Surprisingly the temperature has only risen to -0.5C as the precipitation has moved over, currently light snow with a slight dusting of snow developing on top of the frost- now just need to get some of the heavier stuff over here! It does look like the heavier stuff will pass to the east of here, although it also seems to be associated with more marginal temperatures (hovering around the 0.7 mark at South Shields).

2008/09 had a much greater emphasis on marginal snow events, so while some inland and upland areas had a comparably snowy winter to 2009/10 and 2010/11, most coastal areas were restricted to only short-lived thin coverings. Meanwhile, looks like I might not actually see much precipitation tonight- the heavier stuff is thinning out from the west.

In Cleadon in Tyne and Wear I didn't record a single snowless season from 1993-2012 inclusive in terms of snow lying, but 1999/2000 had only one occurrence of >50% snow cover, on the 16th/17th February. There have been a fair number of seasons with just a few days of thin snow cover- 1997/98, 2004/05, 2006/07, 2007/08 and 2011/12. I've looked at stats for nearby sites further back and it appears that there has been no winter devoid of snow cover in the Tyne and Wear area, even along coastal fringes, since at least the 1970s. The generally snowless winter of 1991/92 had brief accumulations of snow on the 20th December and also in mid-February, including coastal areas. 1988/89 had 3 or 4 days of lying snow in November in most parts of the region, and 1989/90 had a few short-lived snow events. Meanwhile the precipitation is closing in on Sandhutton but the heavy stuff looks like it's at least an hour away- just light stuff showing on the radar for the next hour.

Looks like it's snowing a bit at South Shields judging by Neil Bradshaw's webcam: http://www.southshie...y's_weather.htm The precipitation will probably reach my area between 1 and 2am judging by its recent progress. Looking promising re. getting a slight covering here tomorrow morning if it can keep most of its intensity while moving between Tyneside and North Yorkshire- a big "if" though! It's gone up to -1.1C here now.

It's on the backward edge of the system as the surface winds are set to veer from a W/NW'ly to the NNW or N. The winds will be more or less parallel to the coastline after that, so it is only really eastern coastal areas that are also exposed to the N and NNW that are likely to be affected. The temperature has risen here but only to -1.9C following a low of -2.7C- the precipitation is still a fair way away. I note that it's not too far from South Tyneside, where Neil Bradshaw is registering 0.2C, though these systems do sometimes feature a sharp temperature rise as the precipitation moves over.

Looking through the Scottish regional thread has reinforced my previous opinion- rain/sleet for most of us to begin with, but turning to snow on the northern flank as the colder air undercuts the system. The amount of snow will depend on how heavy the precipitation is on the northern flank, but broadly speaking the higher up you are, and the further east you are (barring eastern coastal fringes where onshore winds will increase marginality) the greater your chance of waking up to a slight covering tomorrow. It's down at -2.6C at Sandhutton and still dropping, but going by previous experience we'll probably get a slow rise as the front approaches, following by an abrupt rise of about 2C as the precipitation arrives. I'm no longer confident of my daytime max of 1.5C being exceeded overnight, but with relatively high uppers and a slight temperature inversion in some places, temperatures around freezing could still support rain or freezing rain on the southern flank of the front. I haven't seen enough to completely rule out the possibility of my back yard having a centimetre or two of snow at dawn tomorrow though.

I must admit that I don't remember that- although I remember frequent ECMWF runs projecting cold north-easterly winds that never came off.

Yes, a weak system moved south-eastwards overnight on the 1st/2nd December 2008 and gave pretty widespread snowfall over northern England, though many areas had just a dusting. By the time it got down to Norwich (where I was at the time) it was just rain, with a bit of sleet mixed in on the south-facing flank. That system was then followed by a frontal snowfall in the NE on the 4th December, and the chart for this coming Monday bears similarities but it looks like the snow will be over with more quickly- probably a spell of snow overnight Sunday/Monday but back to rain by daybreak on Monday.

Only 1.5C max today- I sense that today's maximum temperature will be reached just before the front comes over. I expect rain/sleet to start off with, maybe turning to snow if it is heavy enough on the northern flank, and that would imply temperatures higher than 1.5C. The temperature is currently at -0.1C so presumably it will continue to fall a little before rising significantly as the front approaches.

Posted this into the main model output thread, but I'll post it in here too: A shift back towards a cold and potentially fairly snowy outlook on this morning's model outputs. Today and the weekend will be mostly dry and sunny apart from wintry showers near north-facing coasts, but we do have an area of organised precipitation moving south-eastwards tonight. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121130/06/24/ukprec.png 850hPa temperatures will be above the -5C mark as the band approaches, but generally below after it clears, so it will be very marginal for snow. The most likely outcome at low levels will be sleet/rain initially, with some backward edge snow possible. Monday's potential snow event for northern England is still "on" but looks like it will mostly arrive overnight- by daylight hours it will probably have turned back to rain. Next week is progged to have a couple of northerly outbreaks which look rather more potent (at least in terms of 850hPa temperature) than modelled on previous days, and with disturbances running into the polar airflow, chances of some marginal rain/sleet/snow events with snow always more likely on the north-eastern flank of the systems, with rain in the south and west of them. It does indeed look like the extended (T+192 to T+240) outputs from the GFS and ECMWF are potentially setting us up for some sort of easterly incursion, with a moderately cold continent to tap into, but the ECMWF ensemble mean suggests that there is considerable uncertainty over the prevailing pressure patterns in this period. Temperatures probably no higher than average though.