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Everything posted by 4wd

  1. After being concerned and wishing it could have been held in China earlier I'm now resigned to the inevitable truth it cannot be stopped but fairly simple personal measures make more difference than anything else Avoiding crowds and 'arms lengthing' as much as possible, and imagine surfaces others have touched have got sticky dog poo on them will be far more effective than widespread shutdowns that cannot be maintained for long enough anyway. In a couple of years time it will probably seem similar to (rather forgotten) Hong Kong flu in 1968, only hopefully a vaccine will be available later this year What did we do then? Just got on with things and practiced basic hygiene as recommended now. The major difference now is media driven hysteria like never before. 1968 flu pandemic - Wikipedia EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG
  2. It reminds me a lot of the F&M outbreak - or rather one-step-too-late official attempts to deal with it do. That resulted in total lockdown + no income here for more than six months (but we weren't culled due to my pre-emptive actions)
  3. I have seen a suggestion that Iranian high deaths are due to strong steroids being used inappropriately ( DIY treatment) as they can be bought over the counter. That's certainly preferable to a new more deadly strain. There was a comment that they were seeing subtle genetic differences in the virus among UK cases already.
  4. I don't see that being a lot different from any number of events here. Perhaps larger sporting events will be suspended at least to spectators after this weekend (e.g. football league) But concert halls etc must be pretty high risk. Switzerland banned any event with over 1000 people seems sensible
  5. You would have expected people to be doing daily blog or youtube from their mobile while in isolation. No doubt they have in Chinese but even youtube is blocked there.
  6. I would be surprised if we aren't in the same boat as early as mid-March
  7. I think we can forget about heat killing it at least UK style 'heat' of about 20C. UV and drying out in the sun/wind is more promising but only on surfaces which are exposed - more or less outside. Person to person can't make much difference except we are somewhat more likely to be outside longer, or at least in a well ventilated room.
  8. It's been quite a cover here but very wet, no doubt at least 4" higher up Not far off rain falling now though and temperature is up to 0.6C
  9. They are testing 100s daily and as you know only a handful of positives. One of the problems is feeling generally unwell with a temperature is not a very specific symptom
  10. 78mm for he month here is 20mm more than average, 31mm since this time yesterday. We have had three really nasty squall line events causing mini-flash floods with about 5mm in less than 5 minutes onto already waterlogged ground. A particular problem here is a large stone culvert with a grid to stop debris going down, when it's windy a lot of fine twiggy debris ends up in the water and will block the grid in minutes if one of the flashes come down increasing the already high flow by 10x - so even daily clearing is not enough. I was out raking it off last night about 11pm and it was still nearly blocked again this morning
  11. I had to check here, we're on 46mm and Feb average is only 55mm so will easily pass that this weekend. Next week looks drier though so unlikely to be particularly remarkable. January meanwhile was well below half normal here.
  12. There's a good chance it's just burning rubbish because normal collections have been suspended. A lot of medical equipment masks gowns are all to get rid off daily. While the death rate is almost certainly much higher than figures suggest they aren't burning bodies in the open like some have suggested.
  13. Someone I know is back from similar tomorrow (but on his own) it will be interesting to see how it was, but he's staying home until the end of next week so far as possible. The Philippines have had few cases so far but Singapore Airport and being on a plane generally would be worrying, especially with kids who you can't watch every minute. Especially basc stuff like not touching face after inadvertently touching other surfaces.
  14. Several gusts well over 60mph overnight. Any showers that make it seem rather light and blow through in a couple of minutes.
  15. I thought the new-think blocking waterways with sticks was going to make a huge difference? Did it still run downhill when it rained heavily?
  16. Compare that to our earlier flight with bus drivers totally unprotected.
  17. The wuflu site graph now shows a marked decline in new infections which is due to the draconian action taken in China. However this really is early days. The consequences of being isolated in the new military hospital(s) are so devastating that there is huge incentive to not come forward if infected. Other hotspots are inevitably going to progress in a very difficult way to control. WuFlu.live WUFLU.LIVE Real-time updates on infections, deaths & recoveries from the Wuhan Coronavrius + Live Streams
  18. It's not the racial groups it's a subtle difference in the make up of proteins in the airways, to which the virus attaches itself From about 3:20 in this video he covers it.
  19. Give it time, we still aren't taking nearly enough precautions with people coming back from the far east given no checks whatsoever other than opportunity to pick up an info leaflet maybe.
  20. I wish people would stop comparing it to flu, it's closer to the seriousness of SARs. That's why the Chinese are taking such draconian action even though it's probably too late since they preferred to arrest anyone mentioning it for the first month. Flu is a known risk and yes it kills people in large numbers worldwide but if the nCOV really takes off it's a huge additional risk the likes of which hasn't been seen in a hundred years. I saw even the BBC were playing this dangerous game this morning
  21. There is a theory that it is more easily spread and more deadly to Asian ethnicities due a to a genetic difference in a certain protein in the lungs. That doesn't explain the limited spread in adjacent countries though, because it can't be more dangerous to the Chinese only surely.
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