bluearmy
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Posts posted by bluearmy
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Eps mean is strongly keen on higher slp in two weeks which is v notable at such a range
gefs not too different
About time !
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The trough drops just to our east as we head into next weekend
the one to follow looks like it has our name on it (not certain) and the one beyond that seems to be more likely to be to our west. There looks to be a retrogressive signal on this pattern with heights building over scandi and e europe. I wonder if we might see the second trough back a bit further west over the next few days modelling? If this does verify then it offers the possibility of some warmth towards month end and the Easter weekend.
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Mike Poole this was my first thought
but then the starting data includes reverse flow higher up so the model should be looking for data with that in place
will certainly be interesting
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Mike Poole finally signs on the gfs ops that the reversal will downwell into the trop in two weeks time
Given that gfs has done a decent job in the strat this winter, I’d be expecting some impressive fi output from some ens members across the models. Be interesting to see how the AI models get on with this if it does gain momentum
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feb1991blizzard Lukesluckybunch a month too late …..
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Rain All Night actually I just noticed that there is a 06z ai ec run !!!
So there is a pub run but I expect it won’t appear until after midnight
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Rain All Nightthey’re available fairly early (by 7pm) so hopefully sylvain gets the files early too
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Metwatch high anomoly to the west as forecast by most models. But too far west as some mused.
high anomoly over Barents which did us no favours. Low anomoly to our north was useless because it couldn’t get further east and more importantly, the high euro anomoly delivered a very mild month. Take out the euro anom and we could have had some fun. That may end up on most of our gravestones!-
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Rain All Night the ec control should also be used as an op to day 15 but by the time it’s out on meteociel, most are warming up for the 18z gfs
pedeantically speaking only the 18z gfs is the pub run
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Catacol the gfs will invariably return to climatology as week 2 progresses
hence it will invariably predict the demise of a cold spell first
if there is only one horse in the race then you’d expect it to win
I have been more impressed with gfs’s forecasting in the upper strat this year than previous. I have also been taken by its performance lower down in the trop in the 144/192 period but I think that could be on the basis that I expected less from it !
would like to see an NH anomoly chart for feb. I expected a frustrating month with good patterns too far north for the U.K. but the AO going + post 18th was a surprise to most.
the AO/NAO solidly negative from the 4th to the 18th and then solidly positive which wasn’t forecast more than a week or so ahead. (Which we’d expect the ens to get right). Was that a reaction to the reflected reversal?
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00z eps at day 15 Split with Asian master (just)
pretty impressive to have a split showing at that range across 50 members
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feb1991blizzard the 00z generally follows suit. The gefs do not. The strat modelling suddenly looks questionable after my post yesterday saying how the continuity on this looked solid!
Time to take a step back
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The early March reversal is consistently modelled as a strong reversal. this is where it differs from the last two. Infact the last one and one just finished verified as very brief tech reversals and only really picked up about a week to 10 days ahead in the ens. The early March has been signalled across the eps and gefs at two weeks out (more by the 46).
The difference also showing on this next one is that there looks to be no appetite for any recovery back to positive (which previous two forecast reversals showed). The time of year obvs relevant here.
finally, the gfs ops (which is all we see at this range ref downwelling ) are keen to bring this reversal right down into the lowest levels of the strat and towards our latitude. That should mean the trop feels some effects fairly quickly.
the ext ens look like they want to really build that scrussian ridge - becoming sceuro. In tandem with some high anoms west Atlantic and a ‘trough’ wnw of Iberia this is how a neg NAO could manifest for march.
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06z gfs op fi……..
Checks watch ….…
waits for someone to mention Iberian ridge …….
(don’t fall into the trap !)
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pdiddy doesn’t always correlate to the lowest temps high up. Infact the 06z op has lower strat temps in the next few days than when it drifts the 10hpa spv across us
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Icon finds a mid Atlantic high as opposed to a mid Atlantic ridge
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Rain All Night unlikely
lower down is centred further northeast
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Update on the early March reversal shows less appetite for a split and most runs show a v marked displacement - the 06z manages to displace the spv at 10 hpa across the U.K.!
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Rain All Night it was limited to elevation as I recall. Eg - Cricket called off in Buxton
those were the days
winter was winter and summer was summer …..
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Mike Poole forgot about the 20 days Mike
Seems almost certain that it won’t make 20 days so the early March reversal (if it occurs) will register along with the current brief dip as tech ssw no 2 of this winter
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feb1991blizzarddoesnt look to be on the agenda feb
too early for analysis although the 00z run was very much an upper strat led split so should be more predictable if it becomes the way forward
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Looks like the early March ssw is gaining momentum
Unknown at this stage if it would be an early ‘final warming’
waiting to see continuity from gfs which has indicated three displacements and one split in its last four runs. The 00z gfs looked notable in that it downwelled the reverse flow into the lower strat (even towards 60N). But that was the split run.
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Blessed Weather you’re not being pedantic BW
I just followed what had been posted earlier without counting !
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feb1991blizzard first week march is v early for a final warming so could be 4 tech reversals !
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
ANYWEATHER it begins before then! The point being that mean slp > 1020mb 14 days+ isn’t standard climatology