bluearmy

You’re only just east of the M6 ...... gfsp is another jog west by day 3 (or more amplified would be the correct statement )

Clusters looks a bit messy ...... big spread of broad solutions ............

If you’re north of the midlands with good elevation and east of the M6 then I reckon you should be preparing your nose shaped carrots .....if the blocking strengthens significantly then you can always post them down here !

Not sure where accuweather get their data from but that’s not showing what’s happening - it also doesn’t show 60N which is where the reversal needs to occur (technically speaking) but ignoring that, the reversal wave it shows just doesn’t exist ........ it says mean zonal wind speed and it seems to have the area around 30/40N correct below 100hpa, but above that and further north it’s plain wrong - add to that this just isn’t feasible anyway !

The clusters are intriguing to me ..... they generally seem to switch post day 10 and yet as far as I know, the last eps upgrade brought all members to the same resolution out to day 15. It’s feasible that the 24 I/o 12 hour difference at that timescale is responsible but I would have thought my brain would have coped with that .......

Humour knocker ..... that was my line from yesterday ....... the extended ens are looking quite meh for coldies .....infact possibly quite balmy if we get the mean trough far enough north ......but can we trust the mean ???

Where are you seeing this ? Looks relaxed up there for the time of year but nothing notable .......

They never get close to the levels they are predicted to at 16 days out ! someone with time will look back at the feb ssw and see what verified and what was modelled two weeks earlier ...

Gfs fell apart hemispherically speaking when low res kicked in at day 10 gfsp a little more amplified at day 4

This going to be a fun fi

I see the opposite! actually, I see where you’re coming from but that will make the disruption occur too far north - we want the low furthe south when it hits the blocking

Days 5 to 7 - spread is to the south

If you look carefully at the 00z run, it was very odd in the central Atlantic and didn’t repeat on the 12z the disruption we now see at day 6 showed on the day 7 chart @carinthian posted so we must indeed give it kudos for placing the trough disruption where it did plenty of gefs members were playing with this solution though lets see where gfsp goes later on this ..... the eps control has been messing around with these runners in the base of the trough so no surprise on that theme

I will admit I had a look earlier but knocker was being rude about this thread so i decided not to bother

The old reverse psychology delivers again!

Ukmo day 6 is disrupting the main trough to our sw and the scandi ridge is better aligned ....... they thought it was all over .....

There remains a disconnect of sorts between the upper vortex and the trop - would be good to see the upper vortex imprinted solidly on the trop ! Looking at the upper strat pattern, Hopefully just a matter of time before it is ..........

Have you looked at the heights rather than the temps? At 50 and 10hpa

In the past, when ukmo picks the different route at day 6 against the others, you tend to see the others cotton pretty well straight away - I expect the ukmo to go with the ecm on the 12z run struggling to maintain enthusiasm to stay in this thread .... could be off to knockers ...

Checking out the polar profile as modelled up until a few days ago and now reveals that the failure of a ridge here and the movement of a chunk of vortex there means our ridge is unable to gain the traction it was supposed to via WAA and the subsequent split flow isn’t really split to force any meaningful undercutting to support the fledgling scandi high ....... with a chunk of vortex moving across near Svalbard it could have survived in a sausage shape if it had established long enough to force a euro trough to hold it up but development over the arctic where the vortex movements were supposed to be on the n Pacific side of the pole are now also occurring on the Atlantic side - hence our ridge doesn’t make it self stick and the Atlantic appears to power through - even so, some impressive trough disruption shows that we really weren’t far away from some of those memorable runs verifying .....

Eps clusters remain clueless post day 10 with only one cluster shown

If the ec46 and glosea show an ssw then you will see it reflected in the 16/30 dayer - they will speak of potential for cold at the back end. It’s happened plenty of times in the past.

Not commenting further till I’ve seen the global picture ........... and T2’s which won’t show till the morning ... good to see though !

Ec46 !!!!!!!,

Some were less pessimistic than others ............. even when the ops were showing endless mobility and the ens not obvious on amplification.....