bluearmy

the model run predicts the temps to reach the heady heights of zero c @ T300. that's not T384. i've seen quite a few comments about the warmings never making it below the end of the runs - these posts are plainly bollux

This

How accurate can gfs be at two weeks out re a burst of energy from the trop into the strat ?? IMO, too much of what Cohen tweets is based on gfs op runs at distant range .....

Longer term, most modelling going for the Alaskan ridge to replace the current trough - downstream eastern USA trough - what then happens with the jet and can we generate a downstream n Atlantic ridge to deflect it into Europe, leaving us on the cold side ??

Just a note - the eps clusters reveal the op was progressive by day 6 and two slightly larger clusters push an upper ridge up from the south before the Atlantic pushes in - that may complicate things if the Atlantic jet isn’t modelled accurately in the mid term, the Atlantic trough keen to dig towards Iberia - that could throw up a new scandi ridge by day 10

Why is going to your car ‘interesting’ tony ? I would have thought it was fairly standard ......whereas a 50c warming at 10hpa is of note joe B is not a strat expert .... he relies on joe D for that. He simply sees a warmer strat leads to blocking below in the trop btw, the 00z gfs looks like it reverses at the very top ????

Theoretically yes..... but Ukmo is lower res and less layers than ec and you will find many who feel Ukmo is closer to the correct solution at day 6 than ec !

BBC graphics were for Saturday .... arpege was Thursday .....

Is that the 18z? not out on wz or meteociel ...

will be worth looking at the clusters later but the eps really should have this right by day 4/5. There are enough of them running at a high enough resolution not to be about right - will wait for the 18z icon day 5 to appear to see if it fails to phase the low heights from east to west but I doubt you will see the ukmo day 5/6 repeating in the morning .......

As far as I could tell, The timeframe on mogreps info was the end of the week that has proved to be a portent for the evening Ukmo .... not long to find out if ecm will reflect that - ICON is often close to ec at days 5/6 so far from certain !

If one of the clusters is right, the others aren’t relevant ..........

Only need the one (day 14)

Hmmm - those eps clusters are not without interest as we approach Xmas ...... repeating patterns and all that ..... this assume the pattern ever gets convincingly east of the meridian in the first place .....

Back end of gfs op showing temps at the top of the strat which would likely see an ssw occurring not too long after - wonder if we will see that repeat over the next few runs .....

Too many things to comment on so I will restrict myself to a couple 1) the extended hemispheric mean on the eps allows for plenty of interesting patterns to occur before and Indeed more likely just beyond Xmas 2) the strength of those lows coming into the n Atlantic basin are not easy to get right more than 4/5 days away. The NH profile on Ukmo day 6 looks benign upstream re temp gradient and the ecm blows up that low later in its run because it manages to get the high uppers from the GOM trough to interact with the lowest it can find from ne Canada heading west - it’s unlikely to have got that right so beyond day 6/7 on the run is suspect re the Atlantic - now we can’t expect the scandi ridge to sustain without some decent WAA to our west and I would suggest we look for a less invigorated Atlantic jet interacting with some wedges of high heights left behind by our departing scandi ridge in the 7/12 day timeframe

That system piling northeast day 6/7 is the problem ...... time for that feature to change .........

Gfs - wonderful model ........

Ukmo - terrible model ..............

And a dark evening !

And even then, there’s still a bigger chance of Santa coming down your non existent chimney ........

I think that’s very restricted ! Ventriice sometimes tweets it .......

There is no appetite for the mean upper ridge ne Canada to drive anomalous cold uppers into the nw Atlantic ....that Canadian ridge is initially driven by warm air headed north rather than being a cold high that one might expect to see up there the clusters show a big spread of solutions in the extended period .............. kitchen sink et all

I believe there is a bigger chance of Santa actually coming down your chimney on the evening of the 24th than that chart verifying !

I was thinking above 200m