bluearmy

I wouldn’t be concerned about anything the CFSv2 shows ........it’s up and down like a tarts draws ......

From the blue book ..........

The propensity for amplification remains clear - both to our west and east ...... small changes in timing upstream and downstream will look different .......... hence the variation from op to op, run to run .........

The ec op part of the smallest cluster of 8% - yet the other clusters have many of the themes seen in today’s gfs and gfsp runs so expect plenty of interest in the nwp to be maintained over the next few days

The blocking signature.different which reduces confidence ...............

I guarantee that at some point beyond any SSW, there will be mild, wet and windy weather for the uk .............

That’s thursdays run ........

Not if you've been watching the clusters it isn't ………..

agree John but I did say ‘milder side’ and given the lack of deep cold air off the northeastern seaboard, I don’t see that air to be likely to be anything other than average/mild when it translates to surface temps here

The 500 mb charts don’t change too often - especially those derived from extended ens mean data the charts posted by JH look to be around 65/35 the favoured route but the clusters continue to throw up ridges ahead of the Atlantic trough across us and just to our east ........ I doubt very much that we will see a simple zonal period with systems crashing into the uk - a couple weeks ago when we had this situation with John referencing these charts and saying he saw nothing in the next fortnight, I had a pretty good idea that we would see a scandi ridge ........ this time I don’t have a pretty good idea what we will see but what I don’t see an east Atlantic trough with the uk stuck on the milder side for the whole period. (As the mean charts do).

Gfs op 12z and eps are a few m/s away from a technical ssw day 16. Would assume that will follow before year end but without the wave 2 to follow we would see the vortex re strengthen ....... good news is gems are now finding a cut off Alaskan ridge by end week 2 with eps and gefs both very amplified on a mean upper ridge same area. I wonder how this would play out - with n scandi ridging continuing to be evident in the extended trop means, a quick trop response that splits the trop looks pretty straightforward though the renewed ne Canadian vortex segment looks pretty big by then and a fast break apart of the vortex runs the risk of a fragment being discarded to places we may be so keen to see it reside ......... it’s hapoened before ..... the good news is that we wouldn’t yet be half way through winter

I wouldn’t commit to anything beyond the weekend nws - the Xmas miracle which is the gfsp this morning isn’t so hemispherically different to the ec op at day 10 ..........

As much chance of a sceuro ridge holding the trough back next week as the trough getting beyond the meridian according to the gefs

The Ukmo isn’t as odd as it looks judging by eps cluster 2. Absolutely nothing is certain for next week!

The micro changes for T48/T96 aren't what the model is really about stuie. its supposed to excel in the T96/T168 period. the subtle differences, run to run, with trough placement and angle of attack etc is bound to offer variations on a theme. i think there were five clusters at T96 this morning …… that offers plenty of options which wouldn't generally be of any relevance to us - ie. its going to rain at some point on Saturday. now we are micro analysing it to see when/where/how etc etc

Ec looks consistent (which I guess is something to hang your hat on!)

The runs today (and to some extent yesterday) are beginning to reduce the likelihood of the Atlantic trough being the main player next week ......

Which one is dec ??

Ec46 promises stuff post mid jan (again) and possibly a little later than that - that’s the mean - there will be clusters which deliver sooner

That gfs op is perfect to split the displaced strat vortex via trop wave from the Alaskan ridge .......

Ex 46 broadly repeats week 6 - northern high heights anomoly and euro low heights anomoly

Yes - there isn’t much not to like about th 18z as it progresses ......

Too early - the fun and games were weeks 5 and 6 ..... no sight of that yet

So intriguing to watch the ec op jump from one cluster to another from the previous suite at quite short notice making any predictions seems fraught with danger beyond day 4/5 - note the changes on the Atlantic troughing quite early in the new ec run. that channel runner at day six is the new option into the mix and if there isn’t any phasing between the low heights to the east and west then more routes forward open up ..... late on the run begins to look very wedgy and whilst it’s bound not to verify, I think a general weakening of the Atlantic looks much more feasible than looked likely only a day ago! less than an hour to see if that week 5/6 pattern repeats on the 46

how useful would an amplified trop Alaskan upper ridge in week 2 be ……………………….