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bluearmy

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bluearmy last won the day on February 19

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  1. Can I be the first to welcome @knocker back to the asylum full time !
  2. Given that the MJO analogues aren’t reflected in the output trop pattern through phases 7/8/1, why do you think the MJO being in non HLB phases will preclude them actually verifying?? The MJO has been a poor forecasting tool thus far this winter .....especially so since the SSW - I don’t see why things should change now ........
  3. The nwp ops are headed to a possible NH split around day 10/12. If this begins to gain traction, then all bets are off as the month turns ........
  4. some interest on the 12 gefs days 14/16 …….. i only comment because its the 12z suite rather than the 06z which has tended to be the more wintry one over the past couple months
  5. There has never been any appetite to split the flow effectively to our south and drive any low heights into Iberia and France, save the odd weak piece of brief upper troughing
  6. The ridge has shown signs of lessening a few days ago, only to come back again ....... I wonder if later week 2 will indeed see its demise ....
  7. Not sure what went wrong but here is the mean slp for the period
  8. Weeks 3 and 4 - why not? Now noaa is working again, I may do a verification on anoms for jan and first half feb on the focussed thread. I wouldn’t think weeks 3 and 4 will be too bad
  9. The av T2’s over n America are well above average thus far our issue in nw Europe is the failure of the euro trough to verity. When it was there we were cold ...... with no strong HLB, a Euro trough is required
  10. Viewing the mean heights rather than the anoms is a little more revealing
  11. You need to back up a statement with something mild is the form horse in this country you aren’t adding anything to the thread by just making a bland (sorry Tim) comment why will mild persist? I would like to understand your thought process? As far a people on here being decided is concerned, I don’t see anyone putting forward any reasoning for it to become cold enough for snowfall ..... for the time being of course .....
  12. The fact we are rescued to posting individual gefs members indicates the level of desperation..... clusters more interesting btw ......
  13. So the nwp is nothing like phase 8 analogue ! No change for the winter thus far for the MJO !
  14. A little less enthusiasm for the flatter solution in the extended eps - expect the clusters to remain broadly as they were yesterday evening though look for the griceland ridge anomoly to perhaps be a little bigger in percentage terms
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