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bluearmy

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bluearmy last won the day on December 23 2016

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  1. Looks like a reversion to standard autumn fare once the trough gets through properly with transient lee northerlies following behind systems. Waiting for the next pattern change - you would expect the upcoming NH amplification to lead to one coming into view within a couple weeks
  2. Too much misery on here - I just checked my calendar .......... too much stock being placed in long range output, extended ens data and volatile op runs - plus assumptions from strat data.
  3. Ukmo 12z shuts the window upstream that it showed on its previous run. All modelling now phases the neg NAO unfavourably in both the short and mid term. The euro heights are generally a consequence of the upstream systems meandering across the Atlantic and phasing with the cold trough headed sw around the neg AO. If the jet split was favourable then a mid atlantic ridge would likely retrogress what becomes the euro heights and the CAA would be more favourable for our locale.
  4. It’s a whole month nick - there can be warm and cool phases through the month leading to average. I don’t see an issue - looks like a southerly storm track on a nw/se axis which is why I’m intrigued
  5. Can you extract each month though on that site ??
  6. its a mean chart for a month karlos. with a mean continental flow it shouldn't be mild and systems will run nw/se against any blocking. we aren't ever going to see the same pattern for four weeks so if this is the mean then its not a bad start. anyway, given how the model is a bust for month 1, are going to take any notice ????
  7. Am I the only person who finds those ec seasonal charts quite interesting for coldies, especially for Dec and jan ??
  8. I am still troubled that posters feel that the stronger zonal flow will downwell to the lower strat and upper trop area at a latitude which affects our chances for cold negatively. all I see is any strength in the zonal flow being at a latitude south of our location. If you are looking for snowfall then you need some strength in the jet to bring systems up against any blocking. Of course the apparent disconnect between the upper strat and low down may continue anyway. that wave activity high up was showing a few days ago - good to see its strengthening - hopefully it will verify.
  9. Ukmo offers a window at day 6 upstream - I wonder if the day 7 chart shows if the ridge builds between to derail the train of systems. As far as the strat is concerned, there is no evidence that the current uptick in flow will be sustained as it downwells and Berlin charts are rock solid that they begin to pull back into the mid upper strat in the 6/10 day period. Just assuming that x+y =z really isn't a scientific approach.
  10. their comment re temps firs part Dec was based on mondays run. Today's has high anomolys in that region!!
  11. Just seen it globally and it's less interesting with a high anomoly hanging on to our sw - there are no signs of low anomolys over Europe which would do us any favours. Not a write off by any means but no strong encouragement
  12. only the Atlantic sector - the euro high heights seem to drop away after week 2 (seen that before but eventually it has to be right). Atlantic ridging and scandi troughing and eventually high anomoly to our north. So nothing that screams deep mid winter but output that allows for cold scenarios to play out.
  13. Wish I had tony! anecdotally, gens have done worst on this followed by eps with the GEFS being the best guide. I would say that the ops have probably been the best guidance re the likely depth of the drop.
  14. If the upstream pattern played ball then I think you see those heights pushed east Crewe. The much maligned ec 46 isn't without interest as we head through December. Not seen the NH plots as yet.
  15. Often happens like that - obviously the hope for coldies is that the blocking forces the jet south and the run of systems across the Atlantic runs into the base of a cold nw European trough. currently a fairy forlorn hope but not yet impossible.
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