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bluearmy

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bluearmy last won the day on December 23 2016

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  1. It’s on ecmwf.int looks broadly the same evolution as the 00z run
  2. It’s around 25% nick for the 25th but by the 27th an upper Scandi ridge is 50/50 according to the eps clusters. That’s a big swing from the 00z suite which never really developed a cut off upper ridge
  3. That run sits ok in the eps - shame. The Russian high does edge west in the extended but we also have the gefs promoting amplification closer to home so week 2 presents a lot of questions.
  4. The trough extension over the n Atlantic looks different on the ec 12z and won’t allow same ridge day 5/6 stand down the progressive easterly alert.
  5. Please stop posting individual cold ens members ! Seriosuly, there is always a decent cold member on every run and you will just get folk excited ! better to post a picture of a yellow wall as that’s calming ..........
  6. Gefs offer 25% support for high heights over Scandi by day 10. Suspect the eps clusters will be around 20%. Thats enough for a starting point and not dismissable, especially given the extended trend.
  7. Eps mean/spreads offer little support for the op (the control does with similar evolution and a beasterly post day 10) the eps mean does support a Scandi ridge in the extended period (as we saw on the clusters ) - is the op being progressive ??
  8. but day 8 is a bit soon although ukmo at day 5/6 looked like it could easily head in that direction and the ec op is hardly a mouth wide open shock after the past couple days gefs if ec is sniffing the way forward then the usual adjustment sw on the weekend low would be a decent snow event for much of the uk.
  9. when I mooted the possible negative tilt after the 00z suites, I wasn't expecting the ops to jump quite so quickly. the Siberian block is growing, slowly but surely ..... looking at the general rise in pressure to our east before the op fires the atlantic up in lala land.
  10. slightly more disruption on the front at day 5. slightly more blocking to the northeast. result at day 6 ???? EDIT: not far from gfs solution is the answer (with some snowfall on the front)
  11. ecm in over the IOM and out just north of the humber nothing overly ridiculous on wind gusts away from exposed western coasts, (Ireland and wales)
  12. The envelope on the storm appears to be lancs/Yorks if it stays an open wave (let’s say notts/Derbys at the extreme) or central Scotland if it deepens and really engages with the jet. Where the talk of it being further south than the n midlands comes from is just strange. No models have shown this, wave or not. This isn’t a slider.
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