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bluearmy

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bluearmy last won the day on January 10

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  1. The storms seem to be restricted to the eastern edge of the rainband so mainly an east anglia and East Sussex/Kent risk
  2. To clarify, expecting the nwp to start throwing out certain patterns is different to knowing what will actually verify! The outlook remains pretty fluid - certainly it’s going to become less settled ......but is that Atlantic less settled or continental less settled or even, nw euro trough unsettled !
  3. Gefs are a slight drift towards the euro solution
  4. As I’ve been hinting for some time ......‘I’ve been expecting you mr bond’ but I’ve seen too many swings back and forth to think that this will simply play out like this mornings euro modelling
  5. Who’d have thought ? More swings to come on the modelling I would think ......
  6. The gem nuance reminds us that we can’t take the behaviour of next weeks upper trough for granted. still much to play for re how far east and south the upper trough digs and hence if we drive a plume ahead of the unsettled spell (which could be just a day or two or sig longer). It’s a very fluid outlook on the nwp
  7. Currently heading towards the week 2 solution where the trough drops to our west .....if that verifies, how Far East will it get ??? Could get steamy !
  8. The week 2 modelling continues to offer a decent outlook but with less settled incursions- at the moment that looks to be either via an Azores ridges repeatedly pushing ne (allowing shallow upper troughs to break se in between the pulses) or a cut off biscay low dropping through the upper ridging that pumps a short lived plume and then escapes ne. not a call worth trying to make at the moment but typical British summer weather (3 fine days etc etc) and a general broad nw/se split although the nw not doing too badly. I note references to the ec seasonal above ....... early d
  9. The ens means at day 9/11 show that summer remains well on track but we continue to see extended variations on themes which should mean we stay alert for alternatives which would be decidedly unsummery! And whilst the means to days 11 show strong upper ridging, frontal incursions and 24 hour drops in heights can’t be ruled out, especially from the scandi troughs as the jet traverses the pulsating Azores ridging.
  10. Of course there is every chance that the amplification will remain close to our longitude and not drift too far west. Just that the current drift in the modelling is west .....
  11. Slowly but surely I feel we are edging to the upper ridge retrogressing far enough west to allow a trough to get close from our east or even sit over nw Europe end week 2.
  12. The extended mean amplification continues to show and is now in the day ten area. Currently looking to be in our vicinity of longitude or possibly just east. Keeping it away from the Atlantic sector will maintain the warmth though potentially pushing the western side of the country into a riskier region ref frontal incursions all in all a far more seasonal outlook than we’ve seen for some considerable time with both temps and weather types being what they should be!
  13. Cross model agreement on the ens beyond day 11/12 (that’s notable at such a range) of a mean upper ridge in our part of the NH - that could be centred between e Atlantic and scandi - quite varied outcomes for the U.K. but that’s a strong signal for the pattern to remain blocked.
  14. turning warm with a potential for some v warm/hot settled for a short while (possibly longer) but potentially pretty thundery sort of a win,win even a three fine days and a thunderstorm could well then be rinse and repeat ......
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