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bluearmy

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bluearmy last won the day on February 13

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  1. Every autumn we have the chasing of early season cold and away from the north and higher ground it is generally a waste of energy and time ! Patience is a virtue and the ec46 seems consistent with the height rises to our north and northeast through November with subsequent low surfer temps to our east in general the consequence. Ours recover slowly as the mean flow across w Europe becomes less continental from the east and more from the south as the Scandinavian high becomes more sceuro in time. The story of November would seem to be the lack of precipitation in n and e Europe whilst frost and fog are likely to be prevalent. the pattern is currently heading where most seasonal forecasts said it would ..... as Claudio once said .... 40 points, 40 points !!! No need to get ahead of ourselves looking for winter in late October ......
  2. bluearmy

    Winter 2018/19

    This was Septembers ens mean and I believe October isn’t much changed
  3. Note on that 8/14 day naefs anomaly (Fits well with eps) the gulf Alaska low, west N American ridge and east n American trough (all upper features) - this is apparently what the first part of winter holds upstream - our side of the Atlantic, as always, more difficult to predict!
  4. bluearmy

    Winter 2018/19

    Already seeing a gulf of Alaska low setting up on the extended ens with a resultant w USA upper ridge and downstream troughs for e USA and Scandinavia/Europe sometimes, October patterns portent what lies ahead ........ and sometimes they don’t !!
  5. bluearmy

    Winter 2018/19

    could hide a pretty wintry December in there ...... then I read a post further down ...... we already know ec seasonal is front loaded so those charts could simply be hiding a winter of stark contrasts
  6. I think that the point about the ec 46 is more that it’s broadly fitting with what the seasonal model has been showing for the run into winter.
  7. bluearmy

    Winter 2018/19

    Just how it should be - cold winter and a proper spring !
  8. More runs driving that southerly flow well into the arctic in our part of the NH - I’m thinking that’s good for preventing the strat vortex getting it’s act together
  9. and interestingly ec mean is similar
  10. I come on here to note the interesting gfs and gfsp week 2 from a coldie perspective (re repeating patterns and long range seasonals fitting this broad evolution ) whilst others see the warmth as the building scandi ridge pulls up a temporary southerly flow. Last ec46 was big on a scandi ridge for the first half of Nov
  11. meteociel and others are reproducing the free data only. if this data is behind paywall then it wont be available for the majority
  12. There’s nowt as frustrating for a coldie as a west based neg NAO ......
  13. Pretty sure that our extended warm period is now at an end ....... and expect a taste of late autumn/perhaps early winter week 2/3. Latest ec46 has Europe T2 below average throughout.
  14. Just saw a tweet from yesterday showing CFSV2 forecast for first week October has an anomously weak westerly flow at 10mb ……. now this is the CFSV2 but stuck clocks are right twice a day and we aren't talking too far ahead in any case …...analogues with 2009 would I think tie in with a very weak zonal flow at the beginning of the season
  15. bluearmy

    Hurricane Helene

    Actually noticed that she has her own thread in the Atlantic storm section so I expect this thread to become dormant.
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