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bluearmy

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bluearmy last won the day on December 7 2019

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  1. Ec op has a more notable feature mid Atlantic day 5. That’s potentially going to move the remainder of the run on a bit of a tangent with more easterly push than previous runs in the day 6/7 period (unless the Atlantic digs south which is possible but unlikely ). This run seems to add more uncertainty than provide any clarity which is not a surprise
  2. Still no sense of direction for next week beyond hot, humid and thundery ....... probably ..... well certainly for the first couple days trying to pin down what that upper trough will do in the upcoming set up is proving more than a little difficult for the nwp ....
  3. Ec op has dropped an upper trough in fi twice in four runs ....likely too progressive but the clusters have shown this to be a reasonable call at some point in the 11/15 day timeframe
  4. Cpc charts are generally derived from ens mean output rather than operational ...... you can compare the op to see how different it is to get a feel for how likely that op may verify
  5. Hi rob - two things..... the cpc chart is a mean over 5 days. I get why you’ve selected the chart for day 8 and in a slow moving evolution, that shouldn’t be too far from the mean pattern. But the cpc chart is all about uppers rather than the surface flow and upper trough e Atlantic w of Iberia with sceuro ridge seems right to me. The dotted lines show the position of the mean anomoly which translates to the W Iberian upper low (definitely the issue we have next week with the uncertainty surrounding what happens with it) and upper ridge w of scandi. Remember that the Azores upper ridge is a semi permanent feature so would rarely show as an anomoly .... the scandi ridge however ........
  6. BUT, has any model got the upper trough correct yet for next week ? I very much doubt it ...... over analysis beyond Sunday is a bit of a waste of your time at the moment
  7. Ec T2 maxes are above 32c from Friday through to next Wednesday (se U.K.) and thats with plenty of cape and precip around from Sunday onwards .... so max records probably not on the agenda but a sultry tropical spell v unusual for this country could well be - I guess, seeing as we can’t go to places like hong Kong at the moment, we can have their weather instead!
  8. Latest ec a little progressive with the upper trough end of the week (but plausible) .....that pushes the plume quickly se and we then await the modelling of the next pulse of the Atlantic trough ..... how far south will it dig and will it be overdone on the nwp come verification as this upcoming one seems to have been looks flatter at day 6 .......in theory the second half of the run will therefore be less hot than the previous one.
  9. Looking at the mean six day cpc charts, they aren’t too different to what we were looking at a month or so ago with the upper trough to our west and ridge to our east. But the big difference for us is a small retrograde of the upper pattern which brings us under that ridge. But we aren’t certain to stay that way so assumptions of a glorious August are a bit premature....
  10. the last few runs have moderated the expectations re temp records around next weekend - not gone completely as we know from experience that changes in the nwp that appear modest can have big consequences. However, the period of dig south in the Atlantic trough required to push the 20c isotherm across us has lessened and the forecast shape of the surface/upper ridge changed as a result. Infact, we could end up in a pattern where our airflow remains ostensibly off the North Sea whilst Europe swelters ......... its not like it didn’t happen before .........
  11. That’s what the latest ec op shows Saturday woud have showed 34C
  12. That’s a little odd - this is what I sent to someone on Thursday 23 ref an outdoor wedding planned for tomorrow in the nw I could only say that based on what I had seen in the models ... nothing is set in stone and the secret is to look at the models day to day and get a feel for the direction of travel - it’s a digital representation of the atmosphere, not a recipe for making a cake !!
  13. The overnight runs show why post day 6 is always up for enough change to make over analysis of it unnecessary ...... the ec op doesn’t have support in yesterday’s 12 z clusters/spreads with the upper trough swinging ne with that depth ......
  14. V Low eps heights spread at day10 adds confidence
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