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bluearmy last won the day on February 13

bluearmy had the most liked content!

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  1. ICON 06z is a step towards the ukmo at day 6 with its wedge/ridge to our ne I doubt gfs 06z is going to head that way as it will probably continue to struggle re separation of the lows.
  2. Curve ball from the ukmo this morning but it’s day 5/6 output hasn’t been great last couple weeks the rest of the modelling trying to find its way out of the same sack and struggling big time. still poor guidance on offer but taking the eps as a reference point, snow chances south of the n midlands aren’t good. And north of there looks quite reliant on elevation.
  3. Could be a fair bit on the Pennines but not many sheep tune into that forecast .............
  4. Odd? The ecm 12z suirte offers virtually no snow south of the n. Midlands out to day 10! Maybe they are still working from yesterday’s runs!!
  5. evidence that the eps clusters/spreads generally offer great guidance when comparing the day 10 spread from Tuesday with the day 7 mean from today
  6. still not strong agreement on how this plays out - i guess the upcoming ec op will tell us a fair bit re any confidence and where we are re the biscay low. Will be back later - the modelling seems to be headed to a place that doesn’t surprise me (in the period up to Easter Sunday). I haven’t been banging the very wintry drum for a few days now - ever since the west based theme began to scream loudly on the spreads and clusters - let’s see if ecm can keep the pattern suppressed enough for the se quarter of the uk to avoid the less cold uppers. That would, in turn, mean a chunk of the country being exposed to an easterly. Not likely given the 12z output thus far.
  7. Whilst it remains so complex, i’ve not bothered to be analysing in any depth. Pretty well pointless at the moment. It will be really cold somewhere in the uk and it will snow somewhere in the uk in the run up to Easter (away from elevation). that’s about it at the moment .
  8. Whilst ec disagrees with the other models and the other models disagree with themselves, the modelling continues to be of restricted assistance re the Easter period and indeed even the middle part of next week! some part of the ec run will not be correct -Southern coldies hoping that it’s the low digging too far sw and not getting east at a low enough latitude to continue CAA. anyway, whilst the direction of travel in the 5/10 day period remains elusive re surface detail, the ec 46 continues to show that spring temps remain unlikely throughout Europe in April - below average out to spring bank holiday on that model. with large parts of the states also showing similar, perhaps 2018 will be remembered as the year without a spring..........
  9. Nothing like the depth of cold on ec op Daniel. lets see where the morning takes us -I don’t really feel that today’s runs have been particularly informative.
  10. On an unrelated tangent, Amy butler tweeted yesterday that approx 2/3 of aleutian highs are folllowed by notable strat polar vortex splits ...... i think that’s what she wrote .........
  11. Just noticed that latest MJO forecasts have a reasonable amplitude through 7 and 8 upcoming. any analogues for early April phase 8?
  12. Thursday morning colder at -15c min over the cairngorm glenns. Parts of the south midlands are -11c over snowfields..... must be a date record going if those numbers verified
  13. And you really couldn’t completely rule out a barbecue Monday in e England if that system stalls for a couple of days. It’s that time of year and would be typical if the weather made mugs of the written media by delivering the opposite of what they have predicted.
  14. Very interested to see how far south ec op can get the upper trough day 9. Noticed a trend for it to want to head more east once it gets towards biscay.. will it stall? Quite finely balanced at the moment but as noted above the gefs pretty solid for a T300 chart! EDIT: stall as per the west based musings yesterday evening. That’s gaining strength now and with the calendar nudging April, it becomes very tricky if you’re after a last hurrah for proper wintry conditions, especially further south. perhaps we will await a further amplification which looks like it’s underway by day 10 and clearly has support on the gefs ...... there is a hefty prize still waiting to the ne.