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  1. not sure what name it would have but seems the chances of something approaches the Caribbean and headed nw day 8/9 onwards are increasing
  2. It won’t be anything more than a standard n Atlantic depression once it gets this side of the pond
  3. Some of the stuff I wrote here simply wasn’t true! No idea which run I was looking at with gusts back up to 185! And I should have written ‘palm coast’, not palm beach anyway, the latest ec op has the max gusts offshore peaking around 150 mph over the next 24 hours with some coastal areas suffering 100mph gusty winds as Dorian heads nne. The storm just about avoids landfall as it passes the n Carolina coast on its eastern most point
  4. Looking at ec op, it has gusts up to 187mph as Dorian passes adjacent to palm beach (90 mph at the coast) wind speeds drop slowly thereafter but the state coasts will still take gusts around 100mph as the storm heads north towards s carolina Landfall is charleston thurs pm with gusts around 105 mph
  5. As described on the bbc website, Dorian is spinning so hard without moving anywhere that it’s slowly collapsing in on itself and gradually weakening. The models show a small re strengthening as it finally heads nw but doubtful it can get back to cat 4.
  6. Looking at ec op and 100mph gusts don’t depart grand Bahama until late afternoon tomorrow (their time) .....
  7. Given the topography of the area where its pretty well stalled, this is going to be absolutely devastating for the islands - a more ‘normal’ Caribbean island would likely cause the storm to lose some intensity as it interacts with it but grand Bahama is so flat that this won’t occur -
  8. I expect the NHC are paying a lot more attention to their more hires models than the gfs .....however, they will be hoping that the ec op due out in half an hour doesn’t replicate that gfs run !!!!! it’s not so much that Dorian smashes into the s e coast but that he runs all the way up ne Florida, Georgia and the carolinas with damaging winds and substantial rainfall. I reckon some nervous folk down at Lloyd’s this morning if that looks like happening .......
  9. Ec op seems fairly comfortable over the past few runs keeping the worst of dorian away from Florida ......further north and the carolinas must be v concerned
  10. The trend is certainly more towards s carolina and poss Georgia as he arcs away from Florida but you would need to see a couple more runs to be certain that this becomes favoured
  11. would want to see the trend on that Aaron ......could easily take a mean sceuro block from that glosea output which doesn’t deliver winter to nw Europe ....if the trend is retrogressive then we could take further interest ..... that’s a sizeable high anomoly although our best extended wintry periods do tend to come from weak blocking in the rough area glosea shows as the jet travels into Biscay the coldies are looking for as many background signals to line up so that a few jumping ship late on doesn’t deliver another season of disappointment against expectation.
  12. The 46 has been advertising an upper trough of sorts week 2 into 3 for a while now .......... how notable is the question. given how tough it’s proven for high heights to sustain this past couple months, it would be the form horse ......
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