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bluearmy

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bluearmy last won the day on December 4

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  1. The modelling continues to tease - don’t expect a swift to be flicked on dec 31 though ... by mid jan would be a good place to start and hopefully will be sooner
  2. You should have just left it there ! each op run seems to have a different theme in the day 5 thru 8 range which trends towards something consistent on gfs around Xmas but not clear on the other models
  3. Seeing the global ec46 shows it headed close to the WeatherBell winter anomoly forecast by week 6 - the 00z eps were further north than the 12z with the pattern so perhaps weeks. 3 and 4 could be suppressed a bit more than the model shows which could mean the storm track by week 6 is a little south of where it shows WeatherBell DJF anom9ly
  4. I like the general pattern - displace it a few hundred miles south and you have a seventies winter!
  5. The pub run manages to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory .........
  6. It’s not the former as it isn’t going to happen until after Boxing Day .......... if it happens ......
  7. I would say that’s as pro a cold/snow forecast on the 30 dayer since early.nov 2009 or 2010 (can’t remember which)
  8. Happy with the ec46 update - high heights and slp to the northeast edging from scandi to Greenland weeks 3 through 6 with the storm track into Europe to our south - possibly edging a little too far north for comfort later on but we will take that for a third consecutive good run
  9. The extended eps are dropping the low anomaly into Europe with higher ones appearing above ..... with the Atlantic jet remaining active we would presumably tend towards slider territory .....
  10. i think further warmings such as this will keep the vortex displaced longer but it would return and strengthen as soon as they eased off - we need the wave two hit courtesy of further trop amplification to bring the fella down ……...
  11. interesting that we will have see two of these within a couple weeks of each other and precious little wintry conditions as a consequence
  12. its mid December ……. we were here a couple years ago with good sypnotics but poor continental uppers ……………….. pretty sure the atlantic was quieter then too
  13. QTR via a split rather than displacement NWS ec op looks flatter upstream than ukmo/gfs - more akin to gem …… could still be a decent fi if the upstream cavalry can be held back to avoid phasing …….
  14. If only we could get a proper wintry looking chart like this to verify ......
  15. i'm inclined to make a call here that until we see the effects of either the Alaskan ridge (slowing down the upstream pattern) or an SSW quick trop response, that the atlantic will never relent for long enough to allow nw Europe to receive deep cold uppers (for long enough to bring proper wintry surface conditions) - in the meantime, the nwp will throw out lots of pretty patterns and keep us enthralled with 'potential'
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