bluearmy

ANYWEATHER it begins before then! The point being that mean slp > 1020mb 14 days+ isn’t standard climatology

Eps mean is strongly keen on higher slp in two weeks which is v notable at such a range gefs not too different About time !

The trough drops just to our east as we head into next weekend the one to follow looks like it has our name on it (not certain) and the one beyond that seems to be more likely to be to our west. There looks to be a retrogressive signal on this pattern with heights building over scandi and e europe. I wonder if we might see the second trough back a bit further west over the next few days modelling? If this does verify then it offers the possibility of some warmth towards month end and the Easter weekend.

Mike Poole this was my first thought but then the starting data includes reverse flow higher up so the model should be looking for data with that in place will certainly be interesting

Mike Poole finally signs on the gfs ops that the reversal will downwell into the trop in two weeks time Given that gfs has done a decent job in the strat this winter, I’d be expecting some impressive fi output from some ens members across the models. Be interesting to see how the AI models get on with this if it does gain momentum

feb1991blizzard Lukesluckybunch a month too late …..

Rain All Night actually I just noticed that there is a 06z ai ec run !!! So there is a pub run but I expect it won’t appear until after midnight

Rain All Nightthey’re available fairly early (by 7pm) so hopefully sylvain gets the files early too

Metwatch high anomoly to the west as forecast by most models. But too far west as some mused. high anomoly over Barents which did us no favours. Low anomoly to our north was useless because it couldn’t get further east and more importantly, the high euro anomoly delivered a very mild month. Take out the euro anom and we could have had some fun. That may end up on most of our gravestones!

Rain All Night the ec control should also be used as an op to day 15 but by the time it’s out on meteociel, most are warming up for the 18z gfs pedeantically speaking only the 18z gfs is the pub run

Catacol the gfs will invariably return to climatology as week 2 progresses hence it will invariably predict the demise of a cold spell first if there is only one horse in the race then you’d expect it to win I have been more impressed with gfs’s forecasting in the upper strat this year than previous. I have also been taken by its performance lower down in the trop in the 144/192 period but I think that could be on the basis that I expected less from it ! would like to see an NH anomoly chart for feb. I expected a frustrating month with good patterns too far north for the U.K. but the AO going + post 18th was a surprise to most. the AO/NAO solidly negative from the 4th to the 18th and then solidly positive which wasn’t forecast more than a week or so ahead. (Which we’d expect the ens to get right). Was that a reaction to the reflected reversal?

feb1991blizzard 00z eps at day 15 Split with Asian master (just) pretty impressive to have a split showing at that range across 50 members

feb1991blizzard the 00z generally follows suit. The gefs do not. The strat modelling suddenly looks questionable after my post yesterday saying how the continuity on this looked solid! Time to take a step back

The early March reversal is consistently modelled as a strong reversal. this is where it differs from the last two. Infact the last one and one just finished verified as very brief tech reversals and only really picked up about a week to 10 days ahead in the ens. The early March has been signalled across the eps and gefs at two weeks out (more by the 46). The difference also showing on this next one is that there looks to be no appetite for any recovery back to positive (which previous two forecast reversals showed). The time of year obvs relevant here. finally, the gfs ops (which is all we see at this range ref downwelling ) are keen to bring this reversal right down into the lowest levels of the strat and towards our latitude. That should mean the trop feels some effects fairly quickly. the ext ens look like they want to really build that scrussian ridge - becoming sceuro. In tandem with some high anoms west Atlantic and a ‘trough’ wnw of Iberia this is how a neg NAO could manifest for march.

06z gfs op fi…….. Checks watch ….… waits for someone to mention Iberian ridge ……. (don’t fall into the trap !)