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Everything posted by BurwellWeatherWatch

  1. Average July CET 16.6 Average August CET 16.3 So hopefully nonsense about it's not possible to be hot in August / cold in February can be laid to rest?
  2. Lol, other than the UK's hottest day has occurred in August, and early aug normally peak of summer heat. But guess you were just on the wind up anyway!
  3. might be a good time to refer back to this excellent post from last night - as predicted we are getting towards 4pm and there are the clamours of "but it's raining"....
  4. Onwards to the GFS and icon 18zs If you can't face that then there is some dyer output on BBC1 at the same time!
  5. fingers crossed then that there are no future attempts to refine the science of long range forecasting and we can return to looking out of the window!
  6. i think Catacol wrote a detailed response to these "arguments" last night - but I guess it's like shouting into an echo chamber!
  7. i don't think you can reason with those who post entirely by their emotion rather than on the basis of any science. things are certainly looking a fair bit watered down for next week on the basis of (some) of the 0zs and the available 6zs but I don't think the bigger picture has suddenly changed. From past observations of this, there has often been a weekend wobble prior to a cold spell. No real scientific basis for that other than the models may have over-reacted to a particular signal. Either way, it's a great opportunity to learn more through unusual synoptics which could still all give us the weather we want! How many points can we learn, as opposed to score?
  8. aside from the issue of giving any credence to a D16 GFS chart, much of the UK seems to be bathed in pretty cold 850s (apart from a bit of a warm waft over NW Ireland) - so I don't think it would be warm?
  9. in Cambridgeshire - sometime mid-late July 2015 - absolutely incredible storm throughout the night with continuous thunder/lightning and biblical rain. As a young boy in Derby - 9 July 1981 - I think this was noted for its significance in a weather book I once read. Of all time/anywhere .... in Malaysia a few weeks ago. Extraordinary and they seem to get it on a daily basis which may slightly spoil the novelty factor.
  10. fantastic walk out and about tonight. Totally eerie over the snowfields and a cold - combined with the windchill - like I have barely ever felt. For the last 200yds I felt the urge to experience it without my hat and gloves. The windchill on your face and head was extreme. An easterly gale blowing falling snow into your face. Pretty rare for this country and the combination of snow and cold for this area easily exceeds 2010 (which was pretty snowless here). Extraordinary - have tried to make the most of it tonight - may not get this again within 10 years. It's good to be back in the electric blanket again now though!
  11. i don't think it's barely started though? uppers of -17 will be crossing the country in the next 48 hours, I think that's about a once in 20+ year event? Some places will get lots of snow; others less so. but to write it off on the first day seems odd to say the least
  12. amazing charts again this afternoon - run out of superlatives! Incredible cross model support now for something quite special early next week and who knows where it might go from there. Hopefully this will lay to rest once and for all the old claim that "it can't get cold in late February" due to solar energy / longer days etc (given that March 2013 seemingly didn't put the claim to rest!)
  13. Unbelievable cold run. The GFS is the gift that keeps on giving. Maybe just a tad slower on 18z but cleaner advection, amazing. When can we tell the muggles?
  14. some nice charts tonight and could be some good surprises around this weekend. The route to cold and snow was never smooth for the UK but a difference of 100/200 miles is so tiny globally but very meaningful on the ground. On this basis, it's strange to hear people saying "GFS is cannon fodder" or "ECM now has egg all over its face". THe models are just playing around with solutions that are just really tiny on a global scale. Looks like it could stay pretty cold into next week. Some strange trollcasts on here tonight about zonality looking odds-on for next week. Of course it may happen but I don't see any particular evidence to back this up. Great start to winter!
  15. yes it was very misleading - but i suspect more for the purpose of attracting attention rather than in respect of being scientific or analytical. In these situations where you have a range of solutions at relatively close range, it normally seems best to assume the middle ground between them will probably play out. That normally tends to be dull/non-descript but in this case could be rather good??
  16. i think January 2013 - started snowing at lunchtime and snowed constantly until bedtime. Happy days!
  17. The life cycle of our weather models: • Boring weather prevails and the models predict zonality ad infinitum • There is a glimmer of interest at T+384 and a few users come out of hibernation • Interest appears at T+192 and 3 pages of posts per minute are spawned: information overload. • This is sustained to T+168 and a mass wave of excitement is induced • Half of the users spontaneously wet themselves; the other half preach caution saying it will never happen • Down to T+144 and the exciting weather is watered down to average benign conditions typical of the UK climate • One half of the users tell the other half that ‘I told you so’ • A few users get very very cross about the weather not following the instructions of the models. • There are a few calls for the UKMO to be banned and for the GFS to be restricted to T+72 only. The ECM is absolute canon fodder. • The cross users are told by others not to be so ungrateful about the weather and that if they want to live in a very cold and bleak place they should move to Labrador, Siberia or Milton Keynes. • A few users paste their own posts from several days before demonstrating how cautious they had been. • To be additionally patronising a few users point out that “more experienced” or “more senior” members had been highlighting caution for weeks. • Someone even claims that they had predicted 2 weeks ago that something that had not yet happened would not happen. • Down to T+120 and excitement magically reappears in the models – next Wednesday is actually going to be a snowfest…maybe. • The other half of the users tell the original half that actually they “told everyone so” • Down to T+96 and the snowfest disappears again but a Brazilian weather model showing that it might be chilly in Aberdeen is posted to cheer everyone up. • We are told that this chilliness doesn’t count because it is home grown from a high pressure cell. • There is mass meltdown and hysteria as everyone realises that normal UK weather will take place. • Normal UK weather takes place; the forum is more quiet and still than a January snowfield under a ‘faux cold’ high pressure cell. • Repeat from step 2….
  18. Jaw droppingly or draw droppingly? Hopefully not *that* good
  19. very impressive to have predicted the demise, that hasn't yet happened, of an event that also hasn't yet happened - but either way may still do! On balance it's probably good to be seeing "I told you so" posts before even mid November, as it means there is at least some interest in the models this year. With 3 weeks to go until winter, i reckon it's going to be a long one! 18z a bit dull tonight, but if it was the other way round we'd just be told to ignore it...
  20. looking at the models and going by the evidence from the posters who are vastly more knowledgeable than myself : it certainly seems that ECM 168 is unlikely to verify in that extreme format. There may not necessarily be snow-mageddon, and a cross-model blend of the more mainstream stuff may leave us cold and relatively dry. but it's assured to get very cold as the week progresses and that is a good start on the path to something more interesting than we've had so far. A nice 80s feel about it all. Some amazing contributions in here tonight and inspiring to read such well thought out posts. On the other hand a great deal of forum willy-waving as to who can paint the most apocalyptic vision of ECM168: "I'll get the barbecue out if that verifies." "No I'll be doing the barbecuing in my pants while polishing my surfboard" - all a bit tedious! (ESP as Ecm 168 would actually be V cold at surface)
  21. where do you start with that... maybe leave it with 1 March being the beginning of meteo spring and the equinox in March being start of astronomical spring. saying it can't get cold in February is like saying it can't get hot in August. Models looking pretty good this morning but would be nice to have a bit more buy-in from GFS and cross-agreement in coming days.
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