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    Burwell, Cambridgeshire
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  1. I don't think there have been any discernible trends in the last few days. Sure, certainly the possibility of the mild returning but loads of mixed and conflicting signals. Would certainly agree that there does now seem to be a gathering trend towards a breakdown, but would prefer to consider it in the light of the 12s which are generally less progressive.
  2. quite a lot of low-flying toys in here this afternoon. Someone said that the cold spell is over by Sunday - but when I checked GFS it is showing 850s of -7, gale force winds and a 2m temp of barely freezing. so a lot of water (and ice!) to go under the bridge yet. Admittedly a further mega-easterly has perhaps reduced in chances after today's models but I think the cold should be here to stay for at least another week, and then plenty of further options on the table. Hopefully anyone who does have snow can enjoy it without spoiling the mood?
  3. was it though? I think it picked it out even before last weekend. Yes it was then subsequently showing a micro-feature of low pressure just to our East, which for a time cast doubt on whether the Easterly would get going, but on a macro scale I think it is harsh to say it was "woeful"?
  4. Tim's point/question was a very pertinent one. No problem at all if you are only interested in 3+ days - same as the majority of the UK population! But for +72, most apps will give a good guide (except for specifics of snowfall in these sorts of setups etc). This thread has been at its most helpful when members have explained what is shown at longer timeframes and assessed the different probabilities of it. Longer term cold evolutions seem to be entirely within probability at the moment. It's much more difficult for a member to explain why/how etc than for someone to simply say it won't/can't
  5. so it looks like pretty much cross model agreement, albeit with slightly different routes, towards an extension of the cold. These things can easily switch suddenly but quite a turnaround from yesterday. Seems a strong probability rather than a vague likelihood now. Someone should let the BBC week ahead forecast know!
  6. BBC week ahead forecast seems to be favouring a return to mild air by next weekend. Referring to 7 in London. Doesn't look very likely when looking at the latest model data. Louise was doing her best to wish away the cold - lost track of how many times she referred to "disappointing" temperatures this week!
  7. the mean is more than clearly going up. But wouldn't agree with "no chance" as it looks as though in 10 days time there is a 850s scatter of roughly - 12 to +12. To me it looks as though absolutely anything could happen!
  8. yes good update from the Met Office. I don't quite get this bit: The models are clearly showing significant snow possibilities for Sunday, if not Saturday - and indeed the Met Office video forecast is showing widespread snow graphics on the Sunday - so much more than a vague possibility. So I'm not sure why Sunday barely gets a mention in the text forecast?
  9. this is misinformation! He has said that there will be a "poss shift" on Weds-Thurs next week, but also acknowledged that models are often too keen to advertise this and the breakdown can be slower, snowier or just pushed back.
  10. these sorts of posts are not terribly informative. Not sure whether it is trying to be provocative or merely a cry for help... There are a range of options on the table next week with the "worse case" scenario a breakdown for Thursday. But of course this could lead to some spectacular snowfall for some. I for one will be very happy to experience some real cold weather and possibly some significant snowfall, even if just for 4-5 days. A protracted cold spell may not be in the country's interest this year, but I am looking forward to experiencing some really interesting weather without
  11. The direction of travel looks pretty good to me. GFS coming back in the right direction, so even a meeting point wouldn't be a disaster, albeit less memorable for the south. But I remember seeing all the memorable spells evolve in the last 10 years: Dec 2010, Jan 2013, March 2013, Feb 2018 etc, and every time there has been much gnashing of teeth from doom-mongers who want to write it off before it's begun ("the -25 uppers won't reach Cornwall", "there won't be glaciers coming through East Anglia", "there won't be perma-frost in my bed" etc) so we need to take these with a pinch
  12. comes to something when somebody is "risking their reputation" for expressing a professional opinion in one specific area... I can't remember such short term GFS divergence from such a solid-looking ECM mean. Fingers crossed for c.10am that the GFS retreats though I doubt it will be a sudden flip. Not sure if a halfway house even exists for this 'problem'....
  13. the GFS seems fine so far, albeit a slightly slower burner (or freezer - whichever way you look at it). I'll reserve full judgement until a bit later in the sequence - I guess this is the problem with providing excessively dramatic commentary in real time as the run is emerging.
  14. Not sure you can suggest that the Beeb/Meteo "take no interest in the synoptics". To be honest, the picture takes things completely out of context. Sarah did explain that the UK would be in the battleground between milder and colder air and colder air could push in from the East. So that forecast is the worse-case scenario for us cold-lovers, whilst the 18Z tonight seems to present one of the best possible outcomes.
  15. i think -20 has clipped a few times historically - but i think even the famous Jan 1987 spell didn't quite achieve that - something like 19. I think we got lower than -15 in the BFTE Feb 2018 spell, maybe a 16 or 17 on the EAst Anglian or Kent coast
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