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    Burwell, Cambridgeshire
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    Music of all sorts, weather, cooking

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  1. some nice charts tonight and could be some good surprises around this weekend. The route to cold and snow was never smooth for the UK but a difference of 100/200 miles is so tiny globally but very meaningful on the ground. On this basis, it's strange to hear people saying "GFS is cannon fodder" or "ECM now has egg all over its face". THe models are just playing around with solutions that are just really tiny on a global scale. Looks like it could stay pretty cold into next week. Some strange trollcasts on here tonight about zonality looking odds-on for next week. Of course it may happen but I don't see any particular evidence to back this up. Great start to winter!
  2. yes it was very misleading - but i suspect more for the purpose of attracting attention rather than in respect of being scientific or analytical. In these situations where you have a range of solutions at relatively close range, it normally seems best to assume the middle ground between them will probably play out. That normally tends to be dull/non-descript but in this case could be rather good??
  3. i think January 2013 - started snowing at lunchtime and snowed constantly until bedtime. Happy days!
  4. Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    The life cycle of our weather models: • Boring weather prevails and the models predict zonality ad infinitum • There is a glimmer of interest at T+384 and a few users come out of hibernation • Interest appears at T+192 and 3 pages of posts per minute are spawned: information overload. • This is sustained to T+168 and a mass wave of excitement is induced • Half of the users spontaneously wet themselves; the other half preach caution saying it will never happen • Down to T+144 and the exciting weather is watered down to average benign conditions typical of the UK climate • One half of the users tell the other half that ‘I told you so’ • A few users get very very cross about the weather not following the instructions of the models. • There are a few calls for the UKMO to be banned and for the GFS to be restricted to T+72 only. The ECM is absolute canon fodder. • The cross users are told by others not to be so ungrateful about the weather and that if they want to live in a very cold and bleak place they should move to Labrador, Siberia or Milton Keynes. • A few users paste their own posts from several days before demonstrating how cautious they had been. • To be additionally patronising a few users point out that “more experienced” or “more senior” members had been highlighting caution for weeks. • Someone even claims that they had predicted 2 weeks ago that something that had not yet happened would not happen. • Down to T+120 and excitement magically reappears in the models – next Wednesday is actually going to be a snowfest…maybe. • The other half of the users tell the original half that actually they “told everyone so” • Down to T+96 and the snowfest disappears again but a Brazilian weather model showing that it might be chilly in Aberdeen is posted to cheer everyone up. • We are told that this chilliness doesn’t count because it is home grown from a high pressure cell. • There is mass meltdown and hysteria as everyone realises that normal UK weather will take place. • Normal UK weather takes place; the forum is more quiet and still than a January snowfield under a ‘faux cold’ high pressure cell. • Repeat from step 2….
  5. Jaw droppingly or draw droppingly? Hopefully not *that* good
  6. very impressive to have predicted the demise, that hasn't yet happened, of an event that also hasn't yet happened - but either way may still do! On balance it's probably good to be seeing "I told you so" posts before even mid November, as it means there is at least some interest in the models this year. With 3 weeks to go until winter, i reckon it's going to be a long one! 18z a bit dull tonight, but if it was the other way round we'd just be told to ignore it...
  7. looking at the models and going by the evidence from the posters who are vastly more knowledgeable than myself : it certainly seems that ECM 168 is unlikely to verify in that extreme format. There may not necessarily be snow-mageddon, and a cross-model blend of the more mainstream stuff may leave us cold and relatively dry. but it's assured to get very cold as the week progresses and that is a good start on the path to something more interesting than we've had so far. A nice 80s feel about it all. Some amazing contributions in here tonight and inspiring to read such well thought out posts. On the other hand a great deal of forum willy-waving as to who can paint the most apocalyptic vision of ECM168: "I'll get the barbecue out if that verifies." "No I'll be doing the barbecuing in my pants while polishing my surfboard" - all a bit tedious! (ESP as Ecm 168 would actually be V cold at surface)
  8. Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    where do you start with that... maybe leave it with 1 March being the beginning of meteo spring and the equinox in March being start of astronomical spring. saying it can't get cold in February is like saying it can't get hot in August. Models looking pretty good this morning but would be nice to have a bit more buy-in from GFS and cross-agreement in coming days.
  9. Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    Buchan or Buchanan period if I remember correctly?
  10. presumably all squids should be damp
  11. Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    I think it was just a cry for attention. A few tweaks here and there and GFS ok. Cannot believe the consistency of ecm. Hopefully the 0 will provide some resolution
  12. Great to see some interest again tonight after we were told that there could be nothing on offer until at least mid January. It may well be watered down if it happens at all but good to have 3 models singing from similar carol sheets. I think the GFS has some good form at picking out northerlies in the c 8/9 day range...?
  13. oh bbc news site, you little tease!
  14. Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

    Would you be able to explain where the Atlantic charges back in because I can't see that in the charts....
  15. Fancy helping us test some new forum software?

    Happy to try it out. Would be interested to see if there is really a 3rd party option better or more feature-rich than IPS. Or maybe you are developing your own....