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Number 23

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    Chelmsford, Essex
  • Interests
    Football, Golf, Weight Training, Science, Music, Humanism, & plenty of alcohol.
  • Weather Preferences
    Anything interesting!

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  1. It does make me wonder whether in previous years, all other things being equal, we would have seen a notable event develop this winter. As things stand, we may just be in a normal mild sequence of winters, but you would have to say if this pattern continues for another few years, it's a potential signal that cold weather is becoming rarer for the UK. I'm more an extreme weather enthusiast than a cold weather fan, but honestly can't remember a five-year period with a handful of frosts and a transient snowfall, although my memory may be failing me. For those wanting a 'classic' cold spell to develop, something really needs to start appearing soon. After allowing time for the pattern to change following the clearance of this storm, we'll be approaching the back end of January, with probably 2-3 weeks max before the sun starts to gain strength.
  2. Well, after all the excitement the MOD now settles back into a more normal rhythm. It was genuinely interesting reading the different takes on the output. I'm glad the fate of that block in terms of a notable UK weather event is decided though. Sadly there's a pretty unpleasant spell of weather in the offing now. More or less my least favoured conditions. Looking at summer holidays and thoughts of 30 degree heat to lift my mood!
  3. Cold from the NW? Non alcoholic beer, anyone?
  4. Well looks like those wanting a decent weather event are now looking at mid-late Jan for something to set up at the earliest. I remember the days in situations like this week, I'd run off and tell people we had severe weather coming, as if I was in the know Made to look a prat quite a few times when we were sitting under warm rain a week later. Hoping we get something benign while we await the next developments.
  5. On the bright side, at least this one looks like slipping away at 144+, and with model disagreement to temper expectations. Much better than a cross-model agreed straight Easterly with -10 uppers at +72/96 which goes up in smoke!
  6. Still too early to say, but I think the halfway house solution is starting to develop which, when it comes to Easterlies and their all-or-nothing nature, isn't good news in the short term. Shame, but not totally unexpected given the expert opinions on here of late.
  7. Since I only enjoy significant cold weather events, I've been watching this develop with interest. Gut instinct is we'll see a gradual convergence over the next couple of days, and a watered-down/curtailed variant of the Euro's will be the net result. From there is anyone's guess, but I'm unconvinced this initial phase will bring much of note other than noticeably lower temps than of late. Whilst GFS vs Euros is more likely to favour the Euros, wherever there's significant disagreement, the difference is normally split. Blocking too robust from ECM, energy too vigorous from GFS in the +144 area. I'm an absolute novice (even after 12+ years of lurking!), but that seems to me the most likely outcome.
  8. I'm sure if you caught one you'd have a reasonable ready-made snowball!
  9. Blustery heavy snow here now. Looks like one of those where we'll get a bit of transient settling on grass and sheds before a swift melt. Must say though, these are the largest snowflakes I've seen in a very long time.
  10. Yup heating off and even cracked a window last night. Crazy for late December. I am thoroughly enjoying the lack of arguments over the thermostat!
  11. Impressive to be fair given the uncertainty. Although I clearly now have some work to do when it melts.
  12. Well most unexpectedly I awoke to find it's hammering it down in Chelmsford. Not sure when it switched to snow bit looks like maybe about 7ish? Cars now starting to struggle and the small tree on my path is bent over under the weight. Actually turned out to be a decent event here.
  13. I think I can confidently say this slider finally buggering off will be my first Christmas gift.
  14. Looks like Sunday is going to be one for drawing the curtains and breaking out the eggnog for most of us. Monday slush-fest anyone? Bleugh - give me 12 degrees and bone dry any day. I like watching the snow fall, but only if it's powdery and deep enough to make things look nice for a while.
  15. I'd be surprised/amazed if those accumulation charts verify! If I had to bet I'd say we'll see something wintry but nothing settling.