BornFromTheVoid

The Atlantic sector of the Arctic showing lots of sea ice dynamics this last week. Loads of ice being exported through the Fram Strait. Melting and movement of ice in the Barents sea and a sudden massive opening north of Franz Joseph Land under recent southerly winds.

Latest projections The chances of finishing: Close to average (8.5C to 9.5C) is to 3.6% (2 days ago 7.7%) Above average (>9.5C) remains at 0.0% (2 days ago 0.0%) Below average (<8.5C) is to 96.4% (2 days ago 92.3%) The period of the 8th to the 13th is forecast to average 4.5C, which is 3.8C below the 91-20 average. Some potential low hanging fruit coming up. The record low minima for the 12th and 13th are just -1.7C and -1.4C respectively, and the GFS forecasts something quite close to those values

Latest projections The chances of finishing: Close to average (8.5C to 9.5C) is to 7.7% (3 days ago 11.7%) Above average (>9.5C) is to 0.0% (3 days ago 0.4%) Below average (<8.5C) is to 92.3% (3 days ago 87.9%) The period of the 8th to the 13th is forecast to average 5.0C, which is 3.3C below the 91-20 average. I've noticed that the GFS has had quite a consistent cold bias throughout the month so far, typically about 2C too cold at night, and 1C too cold during the day.

Assuming 5.5C mid month, for the second half of the month we'd need to average: 6.4C to reach 6.0C (achieved in 96% of previous years) 8.4C to reach 7.0C (achieved in 59% of previous years) 10.4C to reach 8.0C (achieved in 25% of previous years) 12.4C to reach 9.0C (achieved in 2% of previous years) That's all excluding the end of month corrections.

Latest PIOMAS volume is out to the end of March. 2021 is 6th lowest on record, above 2011, 2016 2017, 2018 and 2019. It's also: 8,000 km³ below 1980s 6,700 km³ below 1990s 3,300 km³ below 2000s 100 km³ below the 2010s average Regionally, volume continues to do well along the Russian Arctic coastline, 5th most volume since 2000. For the central Arctic, 2021 has dropped back to 2nd lowest on record. Here are all the regional comparisons, for 2021, 2020 and the 3 lowest years.

The single day drop in the CET maxima from yesterday to today could exceed 8C. In the record for April this has only been achieved 15 times. Just 2 days have dropped by more than 10C, they are the 12th to 13th last year, -10.6C, and the 4th to the 5th in 1946, -10.7C. The graph below compares those 2 big drops with the potential drop for today. Highlights how impressive this drop is given we started at such a lower point.

Latest projections The chances of finishing: Close to average (8.5C to 9.5C) is to 11.7% (2 days ago 19.4%) Above average (>9.5C) is to 0.4% (2 days ago 1.6%) Below average (<8.5C) is to 87.9% (2 days ago 79%) The period of the 5th to the 10th is forecast to average 3.2C, which is 5.2C below the 91-20 average.

Low maxima records for the 5th to 15th

Slight dusting on the cars and grass here. Rapidly melting now.

Slow animation for the last week. Seems like might see a switch in the main areas of loss next week, as things look set to warm up a lot across the Atlantic side

Latest projections The chances of finishing: Close to average (8.5C to 9.5C) is to 19.4% (2 days ago 22.2%) Above average (>9.5C) is to 1.6% (2 days ago 6.0%) Below average (<8.5C) is to 79% (2 days ago 71.8%) The period of the 3rd to the 8th is forecast to average 4.5C, 3.5C below the 91-20 average.

The current FI GFS outlook would have the CET in the low 5s (~5.3C) by mid month. Something that hasn't happened since 1986. As remarkably cold as that sounds, it still wouldn't even enter the top 20 coldest first halves of April.

March overall was the 9th lowest extent on record, according to the NSIDC. Below is an animation showing the extent for each March and its corresponding spatial destruction.

Looks like the record minimum for the 6th could be within reach. It's currently -2.4C, and the forecast looks set to be about -2C.

First projections for April The chances of finishing: Close to average (8.5C to 9.5C) is 22.2% Above average (>9.5C) is 6.0% Below average (<8.5C) is 71.8% GFS for the 1st to 6th looks like averaging about 5.8C, or 2.3C above the 91-20 average

Alright a few stats and graphs for March. AT 7.2C, March 2021 was the 42nd warmest in a record dating back to 1659. It was also: 0.5C above the 91-20 average 1.5C above the 61-90 average 1.4C above the 20th century average 2.2C above the 18th century average Compared with 1991-2020 average, 16 days were above average and 15 days were below. Three days were in the top 10 warmest, one of which set a new record, 14.3°C on the 31st. This beat the old record by 0.5°C. This was also just the 4th March day to average 14°C or higher. No daily minimum records were set. Two daily high maximum records were set, with 21.2°C and 20.2°C on the 30th and 31st, beating the previous records by 2.0°C and 1.5°C respectively. The 21.2°C maximum was the 2nd highest on record for March

Confirmed as 7.2C, so a 0.2C downward correction. One daily mean record set, 14.3C on the last day, the 4th time 14C or higher has been reached. Will get more stats up later.

I've got a little blog piece that will hopefully be appearing here soon where I take a look at some of the important factors that influence melt season ice loss (both the starting factors and those that occur during the melt season). As a little hint, I'll add one image here from it, which is a simple linear extrapolation of the long term trendline to 2021. Once the blog is out, it should show most of the reasoning behind my own guess.

We've set a provisional record maximum for the 30th, 19.9C. Beats the 2017 record by 0.7C. The max record today, of 18.7C, is almost certain to be beaten. As is the daily mean record of 13.8C. There's even a chance that today could average above 15C, a feat that was achieved only once before, in 2017!

8.3C and 75mm, thanks

GFS suggesting a potential daily record for the 31st. Forecast daily mean is about 14.0C, while the previous record is 13.8C from 1815.

Slow animation for the last week.

The GFS has kicked things up a notch. Extending the near record warmth to the end of the month (the forecast average for the last 3 days is about 13.1C, the warmest on record). As such, it currently looks like a finish of 7.4C is on the cards!

GFS this morning has the CET finishing on 7.2C as the warm air holds on a little longer.

The 6% chance it showed of finishing above 7C would have been on the basis of us seeing near record breaking warmth at the end of the month. That's exactly what we're seeing this year. The 29th and 30th are both forecast to be in the top 3 warmest for those days. A low probability event, thus a low chance of it being the outcome.