BornFromTheVoid
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Posts posted by BornFromTheVoid
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For those questioning if the <2C leap to 40C is too much for the UK to manage, something to consider...
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Out doing drone survey work around Clew Bay until June 17th. First day on the job!
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Latest PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume is out to mid June. 2021 is 6th lowest on record, with the 3rd largest drop on record in the last 30 days. (H/T Wipneus on the ASIF). It's also:
10,900 km³ below 1980s
9,000 km³ below 1990s
5,300 km³ below 2000s
200 km³ below the 2010s average
Regionally, volume has dropped rapidly along the Russian Arctic coast, from 10th to 5th lowest since mid May - the largest drop on record for the last 30 days. For the central Arctic, 2021 has risen from 5th to 7th lowest, and but within a near tie from 3rd to 8th lowest.
Finally a comparison between this year, last year and the 3 other lowest volume years across all Arctic regions in Mid June
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Latest slow sea ice animation. Russian side clearly taking the lead, while concentration drops around the CAA suggests melt ponds are forming there.
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Latest projection for June
The chances of finishing:
Close to average (14.2C to 15.2C) is to 6.8% (5 days ago was 8.4%)
Above average (>15.2C) is to 93.2% (5 days ago was 91.6%)
Below average (<14.2C) remains at 0.0% (5 days ago was 0.0%)The period of the 19th to the 24th is forecast to average 13.8C, 1.3C below the 91-20 average
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I'm back in Ireland for a month or 2 at least. Got a nice sunset for my first evening
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Latest projection for June
The chances of finishing:
Close to average (14.2C to 15.2C) is to 8.4% (4 days ago was 18.5%)
Above average (>15.2C) is to 91.6% (4 days ago was 81.5%)
Below average (<14.2C) remains at 0.0% (4 days ago was 0.0%)The period of the 10th to the 15th is forecast to average 16.3C, 1.4C above the 91-20 average.
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Latest slow sea ice animation. Losses clearly accelerating, as is expected at this time of year. More substantial open water forming in the Beaufort, CAA and Chukchi Sea. The Laptev open water continues to grow too, remaining at record levels.
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Latest projection for June
The chances of finishing:
Close to average (14.2C to 15.2C) is to 18.5% (2 days ago was 28.1%)
Above average (>15.2C) is to 81.5% (2 days ago was 71.5%)
Below average (<14.2C) is to 0.0% (2 days ago was 0.4%)The period of the 10th to the 15th is forecast to average 17.8C, 3.6C above the 91-20 average.
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A mixed affair in Newcastle, periods of cloud and then some breaks. Have the phone out doing a time-lapse but, given the lack of settings options, a thin cloud cover would probably work best for me
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7 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:
Didn't 2014 had a larger opening in this area? Looks slightly larger too me but its not surprising too see given the winds have constantly almost blown from the south. Even the respite coming up does not look like lasting all that long before more warmth coming in potentially.
2014 has a larger single continuous open patch, but 2021 has two large open areas that are bigger combined than 2014. This is reflected in the record low area and extent for the region.
But yeah, looks like Kara is getting hit with heat this weekend, then the dipole pattern return early next week.-
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The already record large open water area in the Laptev Sea has grown substantially yesterday and so far today. The record low extent values there should remain or even grow in response.
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Extent in the Laptev sea continues to go further into record territory, now 48,000km2 below the next lowest year.
Conversely, a slow start to the melt season in the Canadian Archipelago, now 14th highest for the time of year.
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48 minutes ago, Earthshine said:
I thought my guess of 17.2°C was pretty ridiculous at the time but it seems it could well be within the outer realms of possibility?
From the projections earlier, about a 12% chance of being within 0.5C of 17.2C before corrections.
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Latest projection for June
The chances of finishing:
Close to average (14.2C to 15.2C) is to 28.1% (2 days ago was 38.6%)
Above average (>15.2C) is to 71.5% (2 days ago was 56.2%)
Below average (<14.2C) is to 0.4% (2 days ago was 5.2%)The period of the 8th to the 13th is forecast to average 17.7C, 3.6C above the 91-20 average.
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Latest weekly animation. Mixed changes in the Barents Sea, but steady widespread losses along the ice edge elsewhere.
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Latest projection for June
The chances of finishing:
Close to average (14.2C to 15.2C) is to 38.6% (4 days ago was 37.3%)
Above average (>15.2C) is to 56.2% (4 days ago was 45.8%)
Below average (<14.2C) is to 5.2% (4 days ago was 16.9%)The period of the 6th to the 11th is forecast to average 17.0C, 2.9C above the 91-20 average.
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First projection for June
The chances of finishing:
Close to average (14.2C to 15.2C) is at 37.3%
Above average (>15.2C) is at 45.8%
Below average (<14.2C) is at 16.9%The period of the 2nd to the 7th is forecast to average 16.6C, 2.8C above the 91-20 average.
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Snow disappearing and ice rapidly turning blue in the East Siberian and Laptev seas
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10.1C makes May 2021 the 61st coldest on record, and Spring (MAM) the 132nd coldest on record.
Compared with 1991-2020 average, 24 days were below average and 7 days were above. No daily mean records were set and no days reached the top or bottom 10 on record.
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3 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:
Is the final figure not 10.2? (10.16)
Says 10.1C on the monthly ranked page: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt
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Confirmed as 10.1C.
Congrats to @I remember Atlantic 252-
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15.6C and 50mm, thanks.
Of note, if May finishes on 10C after corrections, a June CET of 15.9C would make the May to June increase the 10th largest on record. A June of 17.6C would be needed for a new overall record (10.5C to 18.0C in 1676 is the current largest, next largest is 8.7C to 15.1C in 1817).-
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New laptop and stuff sorted now, so the weekly sea ice animations are back.
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North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)
in Weather Around The World
Posted
That is odd. We might question whether it's a case of long term stations vs relatively new stations, but when so many have smashed their all time records (and in June, which isn't typically the warmest month), and the Canadian record has been smashed, there must be some more to it.