BornFromTheVoid

Looks like a potential streamer developing for Newcastle shortly after 1 pm

Latest projections and probabilities The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is 🔻 to 25% (two days ago it was 29%) Above average (>4.9C) is 🔻to 5% (two days ago it was 8%) Below average (<3.9C) is 🔺70% (two days ago it was 63%) GFS for the 8th to the 13th averages about -1C, pulling the CET down to just 2.0C.

Short time-lapse of the approach and quick passing of an intense graupel to snow shower this morning. Snow kicks in about half way through. 20210208_100829_1.mp4

Light dusting around here, but light snow is still falling.

The change is slow, but it's getting noticeably more sleety. Another 1C drop should do it

Just starting to turn a little sleety here. So it begins😁

Latest projections and probabilities The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is 🔻 to 29% (two days ago it was 31%) Above average (>4.9C) is 🔻to 8% (two days ago it was 27%) Below average (<3.9C) is 🔺63% (two days ago it was 42% )

Not quite, but regardless, a small fraction of something incredibly large can still be a massive amount and still matters! Anyway, Antarctic mass loss since 1992 is about 3,000 gigatonnes, while Antarctica has about 30 million gigatonnes of ice sheet. As a percentage, that's 0.01%. The annual rate of loss had quadrupled since from the 1990s to 2000s, so 2/3 of that total loss has happened in the last 10 years Greenland has little less than 10% of Antarctica's volume but is losing ice even faster, so it's dropping roughly 0.01% per year currently having increased loss 7 times since th

Not quite, seems to be off by several orders of magnitude. 1 gigatonne (1 billion tonnes) is equal to 1 cubic km of ice. Try work on the calculations from there!

Latest projections and probabilities At the moment, we have 88.0% chance of finishing between 2.5C and 6.5C before corrections. The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is 🔺 to 31% (two days ago it was 27%) Above average (>4.9C) is 🔻to 27% (two days ago it was 36%) Below average (<3.9C) is 🔺42% (two days ago it was 37% )

Volume is currently 3rd lowest on record, but it's essentially tied with 2013 and 2018 for 2nd lowest. 2017 has a large gap at the bottom of the rankings. The Russian Arctic coastline is doing quite well, but at the expense of the central Arctic basin, which is now lowest on record.

Projections and probabilities for February At the moment, we have 86.3% chance of finishing between 2.5C and 6.5C before corrections. The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is 27% Above average (>4.9C) is 36% Below average (<3.9C) is 37%

It's the change in ice mass from all sources, between 1994 and 2017, divided by the number of years. So the cumulative net change. Some years sea ice will experience a net increase, some years a decrease. But overall, all sources have lost mass over that time, aside from Antarctic sea ice which has largely maintained its mass The animation shows it well

The final CET came in at 3.1C so, 1.3C below the 81-10 average, 0.7C below the 20th century average and 0.1C above the 19th century average. Compared with the 81-10 values, there were 9 days above and 22 days below average. One day reached the top 10 warmest (20th), but no days were in the bottom 10 coldest.

2.7C and 60mm, thanks.

Yep, was posted in the new research section a few days back. The values comes from all forms of ice, so ice sheets, glaciers, sea ice, etc. Comes from a recently published study out of (primarily) Leeds uni.

Another look at the contrasting trends in the Sea of Okhotsk (right on animation, climbed to 10th largest extent up to Jan 28th) vs Baffin Bay and the Gulf of St. Lawrence (left on animation, down to 2nd and lowest on record, respectively).

Extent in the Sea of Okhotsk has climbed to the 10th highest position for January 27th. Conversely, Baffin Bay and the Gulf of St Lawrence on the opposite side of the Arctic are 2nd lowest and lowest on record respectively. The effect of the -ve NAO on ice near eastern Canada is quite clear (red line is the 81-10 average)

Extent in the Sea of Okhotsk has climbed to the 10th highest position for January 27th. Conversely, Baffin Bay and the Gulf of St Lawrence on the opposite side of the Arctic are 2nd lowest and lowest on record respectively. The effects of the -ve NOA are quite clear on the ice cover around Eastern Canada (red is 81-10 average).

You're correct, I misread the data. Should have been 2015/16.

In terms of mild days, using a daily mean >8C during DJF for this, the graph below shows the long term trends. So far this winter, just 4 such days. The 91-20 average is 13. The lowest values during that time were for 2009/2010 and 1990/1991, just 3 such days. The highest number was 31, in 2014/15

With the provisional data so far and using the GFS 12z for the final 5 days produces a finish of 3.4C exactly. So I'd guess 3.2 to 3.6C before corrections as almost certain. No point in posting the projections as the 5 day GFS takes us to the 31st

Extent in the peripheral Arctic seas has slowed recently, dropping from 13ᵗʰ down to 6ᵗʰ lowest on record. While ice cover in the Sea of Okhotsk remains extensive (15ᵗʰ highest) Baffin Bay is down to second lowest and the Gulf of St. Lawrence is now lowest on record.

Here's a video version so you can pause. Other than that, I can provide any of the comparison images/years that you want. AnimationVid.mp4

A comparison of sea ice extent for January 24th across different years. The Canadian Atlantic and Bering Sea appear furthest behind, while the Sea of Okhotsk is doing quite well.