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BornFromTheVoid

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Posts posted by BornFromTheVoid

  1. Latest CET projection, based on the 12z GFS.

    DecProject6th.thumb.jpg.a99d66bf514cd8ed3ab5f37720dd55b7.jpg DecProb6th.thumb.jpg.39300b6c069e640e86524e370737b2d6.jpg

    Before corrections, the chances of finishing:
    Close to average (4.5C to 5.5C) is 40% (2 days ago was 41%)
    Above average (>5.5C) is 24% (2 days ago was 20%)
    Below average (<4.5C) is 36% (2 days ago was 39%)

    The period of the 6th to the 11th is forecast to average 4.8C, 0.4C below the 91-20 average.

     

    On 05/12/2021 at 10:54, kold weather said:

    I wonder what that would look like if you just used the last 30 years?

    Since those are climatically far more relevant than the CET from say 1940s. IE is there a skewing more towards the top end of the dataset or not?

    My guess is with the world that bit warmer its also that bit easier to have an exceptional warm spell which obviously the long term averages simply won't reflect.

    DecProject6thB.thumb.jpg.cbf02c674f40c17ed60b797a4d2f8135.jpg

    2015 and 2010 sticking out like sore thumbs

    • Thanks 2
  2. Latest projection from the 15th, based on the 06z GFS

    Nov15Proj.thumb.jpg.72567e6b0f013709828ef89fbbf39c9b.jpg Nov15Prob.thumb.jpg.1cee2f007af96f661f32dc40097ba7ad.jpg

    The chances of finishing:
    Close to average (6.9C to 7.9C) is 31% (2 day ago was 43%)
    Above average (>7.9C) is 64% (2 day ago was 43%)
    Below average (<6.9C) is 5% (2 day ago was 14%)

    The period of the 13th to the 18th is forecast to average 10.3C, 3.4C above the 91-20 average. Also, the estimated mean CET for the 19th is 11.9C, 0.8C away from the daily record of 12.7C from 1994.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
  3. On 13/11/2021 at 12:23, Nick L said:

    The issues of charging the things cannot continue to be ignored. What do people who live in flats or terraced housing with no driveways do? This issue cannot continue to be kicked down the road if they want to bin petrol/diesel cars in the next 10 years.

    It's an indication of the scale of change needed and the lack of planning in so many countries. Towns and cities should have had more public transport investment for decades, wiping out the need for personal vehicles for most journeys.

    In Ireland, there are consultation processes going on regarding wiring up high density housing for EVs. Who pays for installation, maintenance, etc, is a big argument. Another problem with the lack of planning.

    That being said, it's possible to take cues from Norway. Most of the cars on their roads are EVs now, and nearly 80% of new car sales there are EVs. As well as all the incentives in terms of cost and parking, they have 1000s of rapid charging stations (>100km range in a few mins), one for every 50km of road.

    But, many countries have been governed by short sighted buffoons or leaders in the pockets of large industries for decades, leaving most people stuck between a rock and a hard place.

    • Like 1
  4. It's been a few months....

    (As a reminder, I use the provisional CET values up to this point in the month, a 5 day GFS forecast and then historical values to project the CET to the end of the month. The probabilities don't include the monthly downward corrections)

    Latest projection from the 13th

    Nov12Proj.thumb.jpg.4c8399e484fa72e38231bee51f102694.jpg Nov12Prob.thumb.jpg.98304fbd43df3083c6d2e468a3fad297.jpg

    The chances of finishing:
    Close to average (6.9C to 7.9C) is 43%
    Above average (>7.9C) is 43% 
    Below average (<6.9C) is 14%

    The period of the 13th to the 18th is forecast to average 9.9C, 2.6C above the 91-20 average.

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1
  5. On 22/08/2021 at 10:21, Snowyowl9 said:

    High geothermal heat beneath West Antarctica glacier responsible for its melting.

    In a new study 

    43247_2021_242_Fig1_HTML.png
    WWW.NATURE.COM

    The Amundsen Sea sector, Antarctica, is underlain by shallow Curie depths – where the magnetic properties of rocks change – according to airborne magnetic data. This suggests high geothermal heat flow in this...

    This substantial geothermal heat flow, in turn, are due to the fact that the glacier lies in a tectonic trench, where the Earth’s crust is significantly thinner than it is e.g. in neighbouring East Antarctica.

    geothermal-heat-flow-under-glaciers-in-A

    Heating from below thats what I always said....

    Identifying high heat flow doesn't mean it's responsible for increased melting in recent decades. This high heat flow has been ongoing for millions of years. These refined estimates will be very useful for understanding the flow dynamics of certain glaciers (as the heat will increase basal melting and thus sliding of the ice sheet), but it doesn't explain any recent changes.

    • Like 1
  6. On 13/08/2021 at 18:46, Geordiesnow said:

    Yes but June was very hot for both the ESS and Laptev Seas, strong southerly winds were a frequent occurance during June. They did back off during July but temperatures still above average here because of the open water and warm sea surface temperatures. If we have seen weather not conclusive for such open water during June, I may buy into the argument a bit more. There is a reason why there is alot more extensive ice in the Beaufort currently and its because if one area is losing ice at a fast rate, another area is probably cooler with a slower rate of melt. 

    If we seen frequent dipoles(the classic ones), there be alot more ice in the Laptev/ESS and much less ice in the Beaufort/Chukchi than there currently is. 

    I also don't think Atlantification is affecting the Kara sea as such, the Kara is changing because of climate change which is resulting in earlier melt and later refreeze which means thinner ice and warmer SSTS during spring and summer which means more ice melts away. 

    As for current conditions, we are running at 9th lowest with a bit of a slowdown mainly due to slack weather patterns, the outlook looks fairly cool for the most part apart from the Laptev which will remain above average until it refreezes. The ice is getting more diffused in the Chukchi and to a lesser extent the Beaufort sea and a fairly deep(although not extremely) low hovering around these areas for the next few days. Will be interesting what impacts that will have on the ice in these areas, it was this time last year the ice just collapsed in the Chukchi sea, I think the ice will be a bit more resilient this year if albeit looking ever more diffused. One of those where the finishing line is near but not close enough and given the lack of Siberian ice and the warm SSTS in the Laptev, Im still getting a feeling we may finish under 4 million in extent still but unlike last year, confidence is not high in that regard. 

    June was 7th warmest since 2000, July was 15th warmest for the Laptev region (925hPa from ncep reanalysis).
    image.thumb.png.8ec99a20da56d5ba9191a40f59a0b8b1.png image.thumb.png.6f3cd5bbc4e01711bf808f177973d4fa.png

    Winds were more southerly in June, but not exceptionally so, weaker than last year and 2019.

    vwindJune19.thumb.gif.0c6e65e341fda2dd9754555c048c327d.gifvwindJune20.thumb.gif.ec439e461e25658bd7c83833207713cb.gifvwindJune21.thumb.gif.8237bb61909879784a84037ff7debf8c.gif

    Most research supports Atlantification as an ongoing process in the Kara sea (and Barents) with the influence in other regions now a subject of study. 2 recent examples
    Evidence for an Increasing Role of Ocean Heat in Arctic Winter Sea Ice Growth
    (Kara and Barents) "Here an increase in ocean heat flux since the beginning of the millennium reduces ΔVthd and overpowers the ice growth feedback consistent with advancing Atlantification"

    Weakening of Cold Halocline Layer Exposes Sea Ice to Oceanic Heat in the Eastern Arctic Ocean
    (in reference to Atlantic Water intrusions towards the surface of the Eurasian Basin, which includes the Laptev Sea) "Time series measurements from a 15-yr mooring record in the eastern EB of the Arctic Ocean demonstrate that the previously identified weakening of stratification over the halocline, which isolates intermediate depth AW from the sea surface, over the period 2003–15 (e.g., Polyakov et al. 2017, 2018), has continued at an increasing rate in more recent years (2015–18). In consequence, oceanic heat fluxes for the winters of 2016–18 are estimated to be greater than 10 W m−2. These fluxes are substantially larger than the previously reported winter estimates for the region for 2007/08 of 3–4 W m−2 (Lenn et al. 2009; Polyakov et al. 2019) and comparable to the estimates for the winters of 2013–15 (Polyakov et al. 2017), implying a significant enhancement of the role of oceanic heat in this region in recent years."
     

    • Like 1
  7. On 13/08/2021 at 00:04, HighPressure said:

    I could not find this subject anywhere else on here so I hope a new topic is the correct thing to do?

    I cannot believe that with the global climate being high on the agenda at the moment for most of the worlds governments that many central banks are considering or are at least exploring the possibility of adopting crypto currencies given the huge energy resources they consume.

    I thought I would start by linking this story from the FT  for anyone who would like a closer look:

    https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.
    WWW.FT.COM

    Elon Musk has highlighted the cryptocurrency’s environmental impact and governments are starting to take notice

     

    Yep, definitely a problematic and growing energy burner and thus CO2 emitter (not to mention them hogging tech).
    With a green energy grid it would be much less of an issue, but that seems quite a way off at the moment.

    • Like 1
  8. Here's the animation in question.

    228408030_ezgif.com-gif-maker(3).thumb.gif.3fb4ff7309ce9be29b5cb0070a2961e6.gif

    As for the Atlantification hashtag, there have been numerous studies recently discussing the role of Atlantification in the massive loss of ice in the Barents and Kara Seas. More recently they've been hinting at the same process now beginning to encroach on the Laptev Sea too. Give the last years record smashing low levels on ice in Laptev, and this year easily matching it despite not even being in the top 10 warmest summers of the last 30 years, I think adding Atlanitification as a possible cause to the mix isn't quite worthy of derision.

  9. On 12/08/2021 at 11:43, mike57 said:

    One thing which I have tried to look for but cant really find any information on is the effect of climate change on prevailing wind patterns. I have a perception that over my memory (50 years ish interest in things Meteorological) we get more winds with an 'easterly' component now (SE E NE). Obviously this is going to have an impact on local climate, and things like orthographic rainfall. Is there any data to back this perception up?

    I'm reading through the IPCC report atm, so I'll have a look for anything related to prevailing mid-latitude winds over the next few days (so findings around the jet stream, storm tracks, blocking, etc).

    It might be difficult to find a sustained human fingerprint on any changes around the UK, as winds here are influenced by many other natural modes of variability (think ENSO, AMO, solar, etc), but I'll post up whatever I come across.

    • Like 3
  10. Delayed again! Just back from fieldwork (temporarily) so my timing is all out of whack. I'll leave this up for a few days though.

    Anywho, over the last month extent has fluctuated between lowest on record and about 6th lowest. Beaufort and Chukchi are holding up rather well, while the Siberian side is close to record lows and PIOMAS volume remains 6th lowest on the latest update (mid-July)

    As a reminder, the extent minima since 2010 in millions of km2 from the daily NSIDC data are:

    2020:    3.7
    2019:    4.1
    2018:    4.6
    2017:    4.6
    2016:    4.1
    2015:    4.4
    2014:    5.0
    2013:    5.0
    2012:    3.3
    2011:    4.3
    2010:    4.6

  11. Woops. I'm away on fieldwork at the moment and the poll completely slipped my mind. I'll leave it up for 3 days, hopefully that's enough time.

    Anywho, over the last month extent has dropped back toward the bottom 5, with record breaking melt in the Laptev Sea at times. Beaufort and Chukchi are holding up rather well and PIOMAS volume has dropped back to 6th lowest on the latest update (mid-June)

    As a reminder, the extent minima since 2010 in millions of km2 from the daily NSIDC data are:

    2020:    3.7
    2019:    4.1
    2018:    4.6
    2017:    4.6
    2016:    4.1
    2015:    4.4
    2014:    5.0
    2013:    5.0
    2012:    3.3
    2011:    4.3
    2010:    4.6

    The thread will lock at midnight at the end of the month.

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