BornFromTheVoid

Wind at its strongest so far and air pressure just dipped below 970 hPa here in south Tipperary.

Air pressure on my little netatmo is down to 979hPa now Here's Barra making landfall

Sounds wild out, but nothing too exceptional so far.

Latest CET projection, based on the 12z GFS. Before corrections, the chances of finishing: Close to average (4.5C to 5.5C) is 40% (2 days ago was 41%) Above average (>5.5C) is 24% (2 days ago was 20%) Below average (<4.5C) is 36% (2 days ago was 39%) The period of the 6th to the 11th is forecast to average 4.8C, 0.4C below the 91-20 average. 2015 and 2010 sticking out like sore thumbs

Better late than never, eh? A fresh thread to discuss all things refreeze. Please keep on topic, and provide sources where you can (don't just copy and paste text). Cheers!

My favourite place to go hiking, especially when it's mid winter and conditions are too bad for most other people to bother!

Took a little trip up the Galtees yesterday. Half decent covering in the top 150 m or so. Interesting ice Saw this odd rainbow ring too looking towards the Glen of Aherlow from the summit.

Latest CET projection, based on the 06z GFS. Before corrections, the chances of finishing: Close to average (4.5C to 5.5C) is 41% Above average (>5.5C) is 20% Below average (<4.5C) is 39% The period of the 4th to the 9th is forecast to average 4.4C, 1.1C below the 91-20 average.

I'm just outside Durham at the moment and there's been sleet on and off the last few hours, leaving a slushy covering on some cars and paths. Loads of surface water about too. 20211126_191126_Trim.mp4

Latest CET projection, based on the 06z GFS. The chances of finishing: Close to average (6.9C to 7.9C) is 78% (8 day ago was 31%) Above average (>7.9C) is 22% (8 day ago was 64%) Below average (<6.9C) is 0% (8 day ago was 5%) The period of the 23rd to the 28th is forecast to average 3.8C, 2.6C below the 91-20 average.

Latest projection from the 15th, based on the 06z GFS The chances of finishing: Close to average (6.9C to 7.9C) is 31% (2 day ago was 43%) Above average (>7.9C) is 64% (2 day ago was 43%) Below average (<6.9C) is 5% (2 day ago was 14%) The period of the 13th to the 18th is forecast to average 10.3C, 3.4C above the 91-20 average. Also, the estimated mean CET for the 19th is 11.9C, 0.8C away from the daily record of 12.7C from 1994.

It's an indication of the scale of change needed and the lack of planning in so many countries. Towns and cities should have had more public transport investment for decades, wiping out the need for personal vehicles for most journeys. In Ireland, there are consultation processes going on regarding wiring up high density housing for EVs. Who pays for installation, maintenance, etc, is a big argument. Another problem with the lack of planning. That being said, it's possible to take cues from Norway. Most of the cars on their roads are EVs now, and nearly 80% of new car sales there are EVs. As well as all the incentives in terms of cost and parking, they have 1000s of rapid charging stations (>100km range in a few mins), one for every 50km of road. But, many countries have been governed by short sighted buffoons or leaders in the pockets of large industries for decades, leaving most people stuck between a rock and a hard place.

It's been a few months.... (As a reminder, I use the provisional CET values up to this point in the month, a 5 day GFS forecast and then historical values to project the CET to the end of the month. The probabilities don't include the monthly downward corrections) Latest projection from the 13th The chances of finishing: Close to average (6.9C to 7.9C) is 43% Above average (>7.9C) is 43% Below average (<6.9C) is 14% The period of the 13th to the 18th is forecast to average 9.9C, 2.6C above the 91-20 average.

I'm getting errors trying to add the animation here, so I'll post the tweet with it instead.

Identifying high heat flow doesn't mean it's responsible for increased melting in recent decades. This high heat flow has been ongoing for millions of years. These refined estimates will be very useful for understanding the flow dynamics of certain glaciers (as the heat will increase basal melting and thus sliding of the ice sheet), but it doesn't explain any recent changes.

June was 7th warmest since 2000, July was 15th warmest for the Laptev region (925hPa from ncep reanalysis). Winds were more southerly in June, but not exceptionally so, weaker than last year and 2019. Most research supports Atlantification as an ongoing process in the Kara sea (and Barents) with the influence in other regions now a subject of study. 2 recent examples Evidence for an Increasing Role of Ocean Heat in Arctic Winter Sea Ice Growth (Kara and Barents) "Here an increase in ocean heat flux since the beginning of the millennium reduces ΔVthd and overpowers the ice growth feedback consistent with advancing Atlantification" Weakening of Cold Halocline Layer Exposes Sea Ice to Oceanic Heat in the Eastern Arctic Ocean (in reference to Atlantic Water intrusions towards the surface of the Eurasian Basin, which includes the Laptev Sea) "Time series measurements from a 15-yr mooring record in the eastern EB of the Arctic Ocean demonstrate that the previously identified weakening of stratification over the halocline, which isolates intermediate depth AW from the sea surface, over the period 2003–15 (e.g., Polyakov et al. 2017, 2018), has continued at an increasing rate in more recent years (2015–18). In consequence, oceanic heat fluxes for the winters of 2016–18 are estimated to be greater than 10 W m−2. These fluxes are substantially larger than the previously reported winter estimates for the region for 2007/08 of 3–4 W m−2 (Lenn et al. 2009; Polyakov et al. 2019) and comparable to the estimates for the winters of 2013–15 (Polyakov et al. 2017), implying a significant enhancement of the role of oceanic heat in this region in recent years."

Yep, definitely a problematic and growing energy burner and thus CO2 emitter (not to mention them hogging tech). With a green energy grid it would be much less of an issue, but that seems quite a way off at the moment.

Here's the animation in question. As for the Atlantification hashtag, there have been numerous studies recently discussing the role of Atlantification in the massive loss of ice in the Barents and Kara Seas. More recently they've been hinting at the same process now beginning to encroach on the Laptev Sea too. Give the last years record smashing low levels on ice in Laptev, and this year easily matching it despite not even being in the top 10 warmest summers of the last 30 years, I think adding Atlanitification as a possible cause to the mix isn't quite worthy of derision.

Well lads. I put together a short video of drone clips while I was doing fieldwork in Mayo. A chance to work on my editing skills I guess!

I'm reading through the IPCC report atm, so I'll have a look for anything related to prevailing mid-latitude winds over the next few days (so findings around the jet stream, storm tracks, blocking, etc). It might be difficult to find a sustained human fingerprint on any changes around the UK, as winds here are influenced by many other natural modes of variability (think ENSO, AMO, solar, etc), but I'll post up whatever I come across.

Can't seem to upload the animation, so here's the tweet.

Late again. 17.5C and 90mm, thanks.

Delayed again! Just back from fieldwork (temporarily) so my timing is all out of whack. I'll leave this up for a few days though. Anywho, over the last month extent has fluctuated between lowest on record and about 6th lowest. Beaufort and Chukchi are holding up rather well, while the Siberian side is close to record lows and PIOMAS volume remains 6th lowest on the latest update (mid-July) As a reminder, the extent minima since 2010 in millions of km2 from the daily NSIDC data are: 2020: 3.7 2019: 4.1 2018: 4.6 2017: 4.6 2016: 4.1 2015: 4.4 2014: 5.0 2013: 5.0 2012: 3.3 2011: 4.3 2010: 4.6

Woops. I'm away on fieldwork at the moment and the poll completely slipped my mind. I'll leave it up for 3 days, hopefully that's enough time. Anywho, over the last month extent has dropped back toward the bottom 5, with record breaking melt in the Laptev Sea at times. Beaufort and Chukchi are holding up rather well and PIOMAS volume has dropped back to 6th lowest on the latest update (mid-June) As a reminder, the extent minima since 2010 in millions of km2 from the daily NSIDC data are: 2020: 3.7 2019: 4.1 2018: 4.6 2017: 4.6 2016: 4.1 2015: 4.4 2014: 5.0 2013: 5.0 2012: 3.3 2011: 4.3 2010: 4.6 The thread will lock at midnight at the end of the month.