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BornFromTheVoid

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Everything posted by BornFromTheVoid

  1. Taking the 2nd half as the 15th onward, looks like this year will be about 8.2C before corrections. That would be the 4th warmest 2nd half after 2019 (8.8C), 1926 (8.4C) and 1846 (8.3C).
  2. Over the last 10 days, persistent southerly winds have been driving open water north of Svalbard towards the N. Pole. Further, in the last few days, sea ice has been breaking up and moving away from the north east of coast Greenland. Unusual for Feb, but I'm not quite sure if it's unprecedented...
  3. Latest projections and probabilities. The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is 🔻 to 46% (two days ago it was 65%) Above average (>4.9C) is🔺 to 64% (two days ago it was 31%) Below average (<3.9C) is 🔻to 0% (two days ago it was 4%) GFS for the 20th to the 25th averages about 9.2C, pulling the CET up to 5.1C.
  4. NSIDC extent has dropped by 264,000 km2 in the last 2 days, going from 11th to 3rd lowest on record, mainly due to the Sea of Okhotsk.
  5. An update on the sea ice losses in Okhotsk, which continued yesterday.
  6. The relevant experts in the area (Judah Cohen, Jennifer Francis, James Screen, etc (Maue is not one)) have been quite active lately on social media discussing their perspectives. There's a pretty healthy debate at the moment about how much of the recent cold outbreaks can be linked to climate change. It can sound a bit counterintuitive (warming causing regional cold), which means a lot of people get frustrated and assume somebody is lying. It basically comes down to the effects of Arctic amplification (accelerated warming in the Arctic relative to the rest of the planet) and the different me
  7. Latest projections and probabilities. The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is 🔺 to 65% (two days ago it was 61%) Above average (>4.9C) is🔺 to 31% (two days ago it was 10%) Below average (<3.9C) is 🔻to 4% (two days ago it was 27%) GFS for the 18th to the 2erd averages about 8.4C, pulling the CET up to 4.7C.
  8. A huge loss of ice cover in the Sea of Okhotsk in the last 2 days, due to a massive storm in the region. The animation below shows the slow variability in the 10 days leading up to the storm, then the rapid sea ice decline
  9. A comparison of the current extent with the previous maxima. Currently above four of the annual maxima (2015-2018) and within 250,000 km2 of another three years, 2006, 2007 and 2011.
  10. A look back at some of the extreme and record-breaking weather events which occurred across the globe in 2020. Part 1 - January to June. Read the full article
  11. Latest projections and probabilities The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is 🔺 to 61% (two days ago it was 47%) Above average (>4.9C) is🔺 to 10% (two days ago it was 7%) Below average (<3.9C) is 🔻to 27% (two days ago it was 46%) GFS for the 16th to the 21st averages about 7.6C, pulling the CET up to 4.1C. Lots of very mild days coming up, but they no longer look like threatening any daily records.
  12. The combined Baffin Bay and Gulf of St Lawrence extent is now the lowest on record for Feb 14th.
  13. Might well be right. For my projections I use the GFS to estimate the next 5 days, and then use the data from the CET record to project the remaining days of the month (I try my best to leave my own feelings out of it). They aren't always the best because they don't take into account the medium term trends, but then it's less likely to get caught out by models flip-flopping. However, using my method, currently there's a 47% chance of finishing 4C or higher, and 22% of 4.5C or higher. These are all before corrections too.
  14. Latest projections and probabilities: The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is 🔺 to 47% (six days ago it was 25%) Above average (>4.9C) is🔺 to 7% (six days ago it was 5%) Below average (<3.9C) is 🔻46% (six days ago it was 70%) GFS for the 14th to the 19th averages about 6.4C, pulling the CET up to 3.6C. The 20th, while far off, if currently forecast to beat the daily record of 11.3C, so something to keep an eye on.
  15. I can't see the updated data since the 9th. Whether looking on different devices, browsers, clearing data, etc. Weird one. If someone with access could paste the provisional daily mean and min data I'd really appreciated it.
  16. It's the basic laws of science (chemistry, optics, etc) that say CO2 causes warming, something that was recognised over 100 years ago and accept by even the most ardent climate science "sceptics" (what they question are the magnitude of feedbacks that produce additional warming). This is supported by every national and international scientific organization on Earth as well as 10s of thousands of experts on the subject. CO2 is not the only factor governing the global temperature. Using your example, historically CO2 has been much higher and the Earth cooler. At the time of the early Earth,
  17. Slow animation for the last week. Barents and Bering seeing good growth, opposite for Okhotsk and Baffin Bay. The opening at the exit of the Nares Strait is interesting.
  18. In a literal sense you're correct. CO2 itself doesn't cause extreme weather directly. But through the GhG effect, the warming and related changes are believed to contribute to increases in some extremes weather events. So, assuming what you meant is that global warming isn't causing changes to extreme weather, we can start trying to understand your reasoning. First off, do you think that CO2 even causes warming? Secondly, do you think that climate scientists haven't analysed historical weather data?
  19. For January, despite brutal cold in some parts of the world and a La Nina currently, it was still the 6th warmest on record for the planet. If we get lots of northerly and easterly winds in winter, we will get below average temperatures. Weather will still cause a mix of positive and negative temperature anomalies, but the average temperature over multiple decades will still be climbing. That's what we see even in the UK, or using the CET data for instance.
  20. More moderate snow in Newcastle. Got the time-lapse running too, should be a nice one!
  21. Alright folks, people are allowed to express their opinions about the current spell without being criticised for them. There is no requirement for analysis as this isn't the MOD thread. If something is rule breaking or offensive then use the report function. Cheers!
  22. Been going like this the last 15 mins. Building up very nicely. The footpaths are disappearing! 20210210_012823.mp4
  23. Close to an inch dropped in the last hour. Deepest it's been so far this spell and some hefty showers lining up favourably!
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