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BornFromTheVoid

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Everything posted by BornFromTheVoid

  1. Latest projections The chances of finishing: Close to average (6.2 to 7.2C) is 🔺to 61.3% (3 days ago was 40.7%) Above average (>7.2C) is 🔺 to 3.2% (3 days ago was 2.8%) Below average (<6.2C) is 🔻to 35.5% (3days ago was 56.5%) GFS for the 14th to 19th looks like averaging about 7.5C, or 0.5C above the 91-20 average
  2. As it looks like the maximum has been reached (8th lowest on record), here's the min to max at 10 day intervals.
  3. As it looks like the maximum has been reached (8th lowest on record), here's the min to max at 10 day intervals.
  4. Latest projections... The chances of finishing: Close to average (6.2 to 7.2C) is 🔺to 40.7% (2 days ago was 34.3%) Above average (>7.2C) is 🔺 to 2.8% (2 days ago was 2.4%) Below average (<6.2C) is 🔻to 56.5% (2 days ago was 63.3%) GFS for the 14th to 19th looks like averaging about 6.9C, or 0.3C below the 91-20 average
  5. Latest projections... The chances of finishing: Close to average (6.2 to 7.2C) is 🔺to 34.3% (2 days ago was 31.1%) Above average (>7.2C) is 🔻 to 2.4% (2 days ago was 2.8%) Below average (<6.2C) is 🔻to 63.3% (2 days ago was 66.1%) GFS for the 12th to 17th looks like averaging about 6.2C, or 0.9C below the 91-20 average
  6. The ups and downs in the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk over the last few weeks. An unusual amount of variability, especially in the Sea of Okhotsk during Feb, with storms hitting the Bering Sea more since March
  7. Piers Morgan was simply challenged on what he said, then stormed off in a huff and quit. Complete hypocritical snowflake. Olympic level mental gymnastics are required blame that on the mythical force of lefty cancel culture.
  8. Latest update The chances of finishing: Close to average (6.2 to 7.2C) is 🔺to 31.1% (2 days ago was 29.4%) Above average (>7.2C) remains at 2.8% (2 days ago was 2.8%) Below average (<6.2C) is 🔻to 66.1% (2 days ago was 67.7%) GFS for the 10th to 15th looks like averaging about 6.6C, or 0.3C below the 91-20 average
  9. February 2021 had the joint 7th lowest extent on record. 1,332,000 km2 below the 1980s 1,052,000 km2 below the 1990s 485,000 km2 below the 2000s 9,000km2 above the 2010s
  10. Latest update The chances of finishing: Close to average (6.2 to 7.2C) is 🔺to 29.4% (4 days ago was 23.8%) Above average (>7.2C) is 🔻to 2.8% (4 days ago was 3.6%) Below average (<6.2C) is 🔻to 67.7% (4 days ago was 72.6%) GFS for the 8th to 13th looks like averaging about 6.2C, or 0.5C below the 91-20 average
  11. Yeah, I think the phrase is something like all models are wrong but some are useful. Still, my guess would be first "ice-free" September day around the end of this decade. Perhaps I'll set up a poll later to gauge peoples opinions.
  12. Slow animation for the week. Bering Sea fluctuating with the storms, regrowth in Okhotsk, Barents and Greenland Seas. The continuation of ice free conditions in the Gulf of St Lawrence and losses in Baffin Bay are interesting.
  13. Latest I heard (a few years back) in terms of climate models was an estimate of about 2035, though most models still predict mid-century. Climate models have really struggled to accurately capture the rate of Arctic sea ice loss so it's generally acknowledged that getting below 1 million km2 (the cut off for ice-free) could happen much sooner.
  14. Latest projections and probabilities The chances of finishing: Close to average (6.2 to 7.2C) is 🔻to 23.8% (2 days ago was 26%) Above average (>7.2C) is 🔻to 3.6% (2 days ago was 5%) Below average (<6.2C) is 🔺to 72.6% (2 days ago was 69%) GFS for the 4th to 9th looks like average about 3.9C, or 2.1C below the 91-20 average
  15. Volume remains the 3rd lowest on record, above 2017 and 2018. It continues to do rell along the Russian Arctic coast, but the central Arctic Basin in just about lowest on record.
  16. First projections for March The chances of finishing: Close to average (6.2 to 7.2C) is 26% Above average (>7.2C) is 5% Below average (<6.2C) is 69% GFS for the 2nd to 7th looks like average about 4.3C, or 1.1C below the 91-20 average EDIT: Alternatively, quite a different picture when using the 1961-90 average (1C colder). Close to average (5.2 to 6.2C) is 31% Above average (>6.2C) is 30% Below average (<5.2C) is 39%
  17. It's an interesting study, noting a long term decline that has accelerated since mid-20th century. They still think it's many more decades away from slowing to the point where it become unstable. The cause isn't entirely clear either (though previous related studies have suggested fresh meltwater from Greenland is a major driver), so we'll need to wait for further studies for clarification.
  18. I thought some might find this interesting. It's a comparison of the daily mean cold and warm records over time. A clear switch from record cold dominant to record warm dominant during the early 1900s, with the difference between the two accelerating from 1988 and continuing to do so. Over the last 30 years (1991-2020) there's been 10 warm records for every 1 cold record. The previous 30 years (1961-1990) there was 2 warm for every 1 cold record.
  19. The February CET came in at 5.1C: 0.2C above the 91-20 average 1.3C above the 61-90 average 1.1C above the 20th century average 1.1C above the 19th century average Compared with 1991-2020 average, 17 days were above, 10 days below and 1 day equal to the average. Five days were in the top 10 warmest, but no absolute warm or cold records occurred (although the 24th just 0.1C shy of equaling a warm record). EDIT: We also nabbed a record high minimum on the 21st, with 8.5C. This beats the previous 8.4C record from 1903.
  20. No daily record, just 11.1C (0.3C shy). Looks like a finish of 5.3C (5.33C) is most likely before corrections.
  21. In terms of daily record maxima and minima since the "Beast from the East" in 2018. 4 low maxima & 2 low minima 34 high maxima & 14 high minima Longest stretch was record high maxima every day from Feb 21st to 27th in 2019.
  22. Minimum is 8.7C today, so a max of 14.2C is needed for a new daily record. EDIT: Also provisionally the mildest February night since the 6th in 2011.
  23. Current daily record for the 24th is 11.4C from 1846, which we might threaten tomorrow. Looks like remaining quite mild overnight, so a minimum above 8C seems possible. Then how high maxima reach will depend on how much progress the cold front makes during the day. If it stays further west then 14C+ could occur widely, but if it moves further inland then cooler maxima might occur in northern parts of the CET zone.
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