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BornFromTheVoid

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Posts posted by BornFromTheVoid

    Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

    in Ireland Weather Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

    Your in the firing line for winds by the looks of it Born, hopefully you stay safe, but keep the updates coming

    The rain is hammering down, 4mm now in under an hour, and the pressure is down nearly 4hPa in the same time. Winds are still quite light and the temperature is rising, so that warm sector is encroaching it seems.

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    Storm Eunice - 18th February

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    A station to keep an eye on in Ireland is Sherkin Island. It's the most southerly station in Ireland, the pressure is dropping quickly and the storm should be directly overhead at about 5am: 

    OG-icon.jpg

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Dublin Airport Observations - Met Éireann Observations for Dublin Airport, Ireland - The Irish Meteorological Service

    WWW.MET.IE
    Met Éireann, the Irish National Meteorological Service, is the leading provider of weather information and related services for Ireland.


    I've added a link to my station in the signature too.  The storm should be directly over me an hour later at about 6am, but the first band of rain has just arrived and pressure is already dropping fast.

    • Like 3
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    Storm Eunice - 18th February

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

    Can anyone help me please? A link to weather buoys with wind speeds? I mean a really good site not just xcweather but something more detailed? Especially right out off the SW.

    You can get into from the M3 buoy, off the south west of Ireland. Just click on the M3 icon on the map to bring up the info.

    OG-icon.jpg

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Buoys - Met Éireann - The Irish Meteorological Service

    WWW.MET.IE
    Met Éireann, the Irish National Meteorological Service, is the leading provider of weather information and related services for Ireland.

     

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    January 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    image.thumb.png.5ce7517daad325ff9a0131f532008d76.png

    Yup here is the global temperature anomalies according to the daily GFS output, still +0.28C above the 1981-2010 average so pretty similar to January 2019 despite a strong La Nina.

    The CET2 series looks interesting. Perhaps some newly digitised data has come to light, an extension of the daily data or some more information has come to light so bias adjustments can be re-examined... Was due to come out late last year but hopefully it'll arrive soon. A dataset as huge as the CET series takes a long time to analyse.

    I just hope that certain people can se these updates as what they are - improvements in accuracy based on new data, discoveries and uncovered biases, just as happens in every field of science.

    With differing stations, instruments, land changes, etc, there are many sources of uncertainty within the CET record, and homoginasation of the series will likely be an ongoing process.

    January 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    In a similar style to Ed Hawkins climate stripes, here's the whole monthly CET record in terms of anomalies vs the 19th century average.
    The most notable thing to me (other than the obvious warming trend overall) is the tendency for winters to produce much stronger monthly anomalies, both warm and cold, than the rest of the year. This is seen with the darker reds and blues in Dec, Jan and Feb.

    CET_MonthlyAnomalies.thumb.jpg.bcc310cf99af4c3cb3ff40ea79b2003f.jpg

    • Thanks 2

    Climate Questions

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    On 22/01/2022 at 16:36, Snowjokes92 said:

    Any news on how the gulf stream is behaving in recent times? Evidence of a it slowing down or nearly on it ways out i have heard in recent years. I did read somewhere a complete shutdown if happened would only take up to 2 to 3 years!

    There is quite a lot of uncertainly regarding the gulf stream.

    Several studies have found evidence of a substantial slowing in recent decades or even in over a century. Some, such as this, have used sea surface temperature observations to detect the slowdown. Others such as this, have used more direct observations of water flow using an array of instrument in the Atlantic Ocean itself, also detecting a slowdown. 

    Some suggest that it's nearing a critical threshold, on the verge of collapse.
    These results reveal spatially consistent empirical evidence that, in the course of the last century, the AMOC may have evolved from relatively stable conditions to a point close to a critical transition

    If previous changes to the gulf stream are related to abrupt climate shifts, such as the Younger Dryas or Heinrich Events, then the collapse and the effects could happen over the course decades. But given the uncertainty, it could be even less.

    But who knows! A few days ago, another study came out suggesting an increase in the Gulf Stream strength over the last century, as suggested by increased warm Atlantic water flows into the Nordic Seas.

    • Like 5

    January 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

    If the next update shows us still on 5.5 degrees, my faith in these calculations will be seriously questioned even more. We've seen many a month recently produce marked downward adjustments, 0.5 degrees... 

    It has been dropping, just slowly, as the mean the last 3 days has only been 1C below the 91-10 average (cold min cancelled by near average maxima). it's gone 5.54C, 5.48C and 5.46C for the 15th to 17th (by my calculations at least). Most likely that we'll skip 5.4C and land on 5.3C on tomorrows update.

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