BornFromTheVoid

A pressure drop of 4 to 5 hPa in the last hour across the SW of Ireland. Strongest gust so far this evening is just 72km/h at Valentia, so nothing unusual wind-wise yet.

The rain is hammering down, 4mm now in under an hour, and the pressure is down nearly 4hPa in the same time. Winds are still quite light and the temperature is rising, so that warm sector is encroaching it seems.

3mm of rain in the past 45 mins and the wind has switched to south easterly direction.... so it begins!

A station to keep an eye on in Ireland is Sherkin Island. It's the most southerly station in Ireland, the pressure is dropping quickly and the storm should be directly overhead at about 5am: Dublin Airport Observations - Met Éireann Observations for Dublin Airport, Ireland - The Irish Meteorological Service WWW.MET.IE Met Éireann, the Irish National Meteorological Service, is the leading provider of weather information and related services for Ireland. I've added a link to my station in the signature too. The storm should be directly over me an hour later at about 6am, but the first band of rain has just arrived and pressure is already dropping fast.

Animation itself here again

You can get into from the M3 buoy, off the south west of Ireland. Just click on the M3 icon on the map to bring up the info. Buoys - Met Éireann - The Irish Meteorological Service WWW.MET.IE Met Éireann, the Irish National Meteorological Service, is the leading provider of weather information and related services for Ireland.

Might look a little suspicious if I go looking for some now!

Latest animation. The animation itself incase the tweet doesn't work right

The storm tomorrow is looking interesting. I'm near the Cork/Tipp border, so red/orange warning area. Should be the first big test of the weather station I got at xmas!

Here's where Eunice is currently tracking. The rotation should appear in the next few hours as it begins to rapidly deepen.

A hint of northern lights last night (some great pics from the UK) from south Tipp. The cloud got in the way a bit, but the green and red glow was still faintly visible, but required a long exposure to see.

I made this little animation showing how different climate warming trends in the CET area looks when using daily data, compared to monthly and then annual. The difference is kinda startling. Daily: the warming trend is visible, but not very distinctive Monthly: a clear warming trend, especially in winter Annual: a startlingly clear warming trend

I just hope that certain people can se these updates as what they are - improvements in accuracy based on new data, discoveries and uncovered biases, just as happens in every field of science. With differing stations, instruments, land changes, etc, there are many sources of uncertainty within the CET record, and homoginasation of the series will likely be an ongoing process.

In a similar style to Ed Hawkins climate stripes, here's the whole monthly CET record in terms of anomalies vs the 19th century average. The most notable thing to me (other than the obvious warming trend overall) is the tendency for winters to produce much stronger monthly anomalies, both warm and cold, than the rest of the year. This is seen with the darker reds and blues in Dec, Jan and Feb.

Some of the confirmed data is there now, with the 16th to 18th still missing. The first is confirmed as 12.6C, so the warmest January day on record by 1.0C. The average daily downward correction so far is 0.5C, so quite likely to be confirmed as 4.6C after corrections.

A nice sunrise hyperlapse from a frosty Sunday morning

Laptev Sea ice area at record lows under the southerly winds associated with the Barents depressions. Lots of sea ice drift occurring north of Scandinavia.

There is quite a lot of uncertainly regarding the gulf stream. Several studies have found evidence of a substantial slowing in recent decades or even in over a century. Some, such as this, have used sea surface temperature observations to detect the slowdown. Others such as this, have used more direct observations of water flow using an array of instrument in the Atlantic Ocean itself, also detecting a slowdown. Some suggest that it's nearing a critical threshold, on the verge of collapse. These results reveal spatially consistent empirical evidence that, in the course of the last century, the AMOC may have evolved from relatively stable conditions to a point close to a critical transition If previous changes to the gulf stream are related to abrupt climate shifts, such as the Younger Dryas or Heinrich Events, then the collapse and the effects could happen over the course decades. But given the uncertainty, it could be even less. But who knows! A few days ago, another study came out suggesting an increase in the Gulf Stream strength over the last century, as suggested by increased warm Atlantic water flows into the Nordic Seas.

Latest CET projection, based on the 06z GFS. Before corrections, the chances of finishing: Close to average (4.2C to 5.2C) is 78% (3 days ago was 59%) Above average (>5.2C) is 18% (3 days ago was 18%) Below average (<4.2C) is 4% (3 days ago was 22%) The period of the 21st to the 26th is forecast to average 4.7C, 0.5C above the the 91-20 average.

It has been dropping, just slowly, as the mean the last 3 days has only been 1C below the 91-10 average (cold min cancelled by near average maxima). it's gone 5.54C, 5.48C and 5.46C for the 15th to 17th (by my calculations at least). Most likely that we'll skip 5.4C and land on 5.3C on tomorrows update.

Latest CET projection, based on the 06z GFS. Before corrections, the chances of finishing: Close to average (4.2C to 5.2C) is 59% (5 days ago was 39%) Above average (>5.2C) is 18% (5 days ago was 39%) Below average (<4.2C) is 22% (5 days ago was 22%) The period of the 18th to the 23rd is forecast to average 3.2C, 1.2C below the the 91-20 average.

Some perspective on the size of the Hunga Tonga eruption cloud

Coldest morning of the year so far, -3.8C. Hit the low just after 8am and is already up to 3C, so a 7C climb in 2 hours. Impressive!

Pressure trace from here, both the 7pm and 2am waves captured