BornFromTheVoid

Nothing wrong with looking for evidence, irishlad69. Better to have our assumptions challenged than to slip into the mindset of believing things without evidence!

The models certainly aren't indicating any cold at the moment, with a mix of average and above average days. If we are to see a pattern change, the signs generally begin to appear at the t144 to t192 range, the odd time a little further out. No hint of it at the moment though.

This table might help ...Date ........ 61-90 Rolling Average ..... 2013 Rolling Average...... Difference 25/10/13................10.977.................................13.136.........................+2.159 (2.2C) 26/10/13................10.929.................................13.173.........................+2.244 (2.2C) 27/10.13................10.877.................................13.133.........................+2.256 (2.3C) Basically, the fall in the long term rolling average was slightly larger than the fall in the 2013 rolling average, which allowed the gap between the two to increase from 2.2C to 2.3C, despite a drop in this months CET.

EUMETSAT view of Etna

Another update for the CFS blocking graphs, and explanation for how they were made can be found here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77743-winter-20132014-forecastshopesdiscussion-thread/page-117#entry2806211 Here is the graph for November, the y axis shows the strength of SLP anomalies to our north based on the 12z CFS. The blue bars are the daily value and the red line is the 10 days mean and the trend is in black. The 10 day mean reached its low point on Monday, and has since slowly climbed back to neutral. Over the last 7 days, 2 runs have show -ve SLP anomalies to our north, 2 have shown neutral and 3 have shown positive. This is an improvement on the previous 7 days, but still offers little in the way of a useful signal for November. Below is the December graph The 10 day mean has remained in the weak blocking category since this time last week. The last 7 days have seen 2 runs with -ve SLP anomalies to our north, none with neutral and 5 with positive, which still suggests a blocked December is most likely on the cards. The long term trend is now pointing downward though, so we'll have to see if that continues in the coming week. March remains very consistent, now with just 2 out of 42 runs showing -ve SLP anomalies to our north.

Given that the low solar activity summers of 2007 to 2012 were dominated with -ve AO and NAO months (which warms the Arctic), if lower solar activity does cause these -ve AO and NAO patterns, a grand minima would not be a very good thing for the sea ice. Still, however doubtful I may be, I do hope you're right and that we turned the corner toward long term recovery avenue this year!

No worries SI. These things tend to happen online!

That articles was about Scotland. I never made any comparison with England, yet you said Come off it comparing Scotland's energy demands with England's is simply not realistic even though I never made any comparison with England or claimed that Scotlands energy policy would work for England. I agree, it would be much tougher for England to follow Scotlands energy path, which is why I never made the comparison. But for Scotland, the renewable are doing great and they already have off-shore oil and gas. They simply have no need for fracking!

I didn't mention England or give any comparison with England, so why do you keep saying I did? You made the comment that notions of green energy should stay in the realms of fantasy, until such a time the technology can provide us with the same living standards we have come to expect. Do you think Scotland has a poor standard of living because of their renewable energy use? Do you really believe our very existence depends on fossil fuels?

What are you on about? I didn't mention England? Scotland gets nearly 40% of it's electricity from renewables and their standard of living seems fine to me...

Scotland is doing incredibly well with renewable energy and off-shore oil/gas. Best they don't go destroying their beautiful landscape and clean environment with fracking.

More sense than 99.9% of the posts and comments on WUWT.

A min of 9.7 and maxima in the mid 14s today, should put the CET back to 13.1C on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at 13.1C to the 28th (11.4) 12.9C to the 29th (8.7) 12.8C to the 30th (8.8] 12.7C to the 31st (10.9) No lower than 12.6C before corrections I'd say, which puts my 12.0C guess out of the running!

Scotland to block fracking on environmental grounds Paul Wheelhouse, the Scottish environment and climate change minister, has said there are “no environmental permissions which would allow hydraulic fracturing (fracking) in Scotland at this timeâ€. http://www.utilityweek.co.uk/news/scotland-to-block-fracking-on-environmental-grounds/934082?#.Umzrmfmcdnh

Politely asking for an explanation is far from deriding someone. I could go through each link and statement, point by point, and ask for an explanation where things appear contradictory, but as that didn't work when I last tried it, it seems pointless to do it again. Hence, a post from John explaining his thinking in his own words would be very helpful here.

Hopefully they can make it a decent way inland.

I look forward to that post John. To answer your question, I don't think you'll find a single person on here that doesn't think nature has a strong relationship with climate.

Welcome to the forum Blozzel. I think the mainly positive Arctic Oscillation during the summer helped to increased the cloud cover and and hold the cold over the Arctic. It's hard to say what impact the noctulucent clouds hard, but an interesting question. While we have seen a big increase in sea ice extent on last year, it was still the 6th lowest extent on record and is still currently the 6th lowest for the time of year, so similar to years such as 2006 and 2008. Whether or not that will give us a good start to the winter remains to be seen. We can hope though!

Bad climate science in US schools: an open letter to Heartland & NIPCC

All that's being asked is that you post up your own opinion. Your mix of quotes, images and links aren't very clear in its message, and often seem contradictory and irrelevant, so the point you're trying to make gets somewhat lost. None of this is meant to offend, but a post just from yourself, explaining the relationship you see between tectonic activity and current climate change, would help us a lot, especially to see your perspective on things

Minimum today of 12.7C, while maxima look like reaching the high 15s, so an increase to 13.1C is likely tomorrow. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET around 13.1C to the 27th (12.0) 13.1C to the 28th (12.6) 13.0C to the 29th (8.4) 12.8C to the 30th (8.9) 12.8C to the 31st (11.0) I'd say 12.5 to 12.9 before corrections, 12.0 to 12.8 after. 0.1C short of the daily record yesterday.

We're all sceptics. Ye need some other name.

The globe is responding in numerous ways to rising CO2 levels. The oceans are heating, the air is temperatures are rising, the stratosphere is cooling, oxygen levels are falling, the oceans are acidifying, polar vegetation is expanding, etc,etc. So yes, what you're saying is very much misleading.

Do you mean for the CET area specifically?

fishthekiller500 posted links, maps and evidence. I don't necessarily agree with the methane runaway global warming idea, but if I was going to dismiss it I'd 1) make it clear where the fault lies in the data and evidence he posted 2) provide evidence to the contrary You and 4wd have done neither of these, but just used a broad, generalised dismissal that could be applied in any argument in any topic. They do little to help with any debate, and make ye come across as ignorant of the subject and somewhat of an a-hole. Just to be clear, I'm not calling ye a-holes, but when broad dismissals and baseless accusations of alarmism, and fear peddling for profit, are yer counterarguments, then that's exactly how ye come across.