BornFromTheVoid

Why is that a poor choice of words? I'm afraid we'll have to agree to disagree with regard to Landscheidt. I can only base my perception of him on his predictions, which didn't turn out so well as far as I can see, even the 1600s climate by 2030 is next to impossible. When it comes to the intricacies of solar dynamics, I doubt either are qualified enough to analyse decades of solar research say if someone was light years ahead of their time.

Over the last 7 days, the average increase has been +92k/day, above the 02-12 average of 88k/day, but well below the average of the last 6 years, 115k/day. The average daily increase (2002-12) is 68k/day over the next 7 days, with the average of the last 6 years being 74k/day for the same period.

Nobody has got to grips with the influence of UV variations on our weather, it's an active area of research. Lockwood's area of expertise is the solar variability and its influence on climate and weather (with dozens of peer reviewed publications to his name), while Landscheidt didn't show much expertise when it came to climate, I very much doubt he'd would want to catch up to Landscheidt at all! Landscheidts predictions weren't great The next minimum in the 79-year cycle will occur in 1990. It will be more pronounced than the minimum in 1811. It is to be expected that the climatic conditions in at least three decades after 1990 will be more severe than after 1811 conditions around 2030 and 2200 should approach those of the nadir of the Little Ice Age around 1670.

Latest weekly ENSO update http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Continues to predict ENSO neutral for the foreseeable future.

Mike Lockwood has responded to being incorrectly cited as predicting a new little ice age by Paul Hudson in a recent BBC article. http://www.carbonbri...e-ice-ageâ€/

Mike Lockwood has responded to being incorrectly cited as predicting a new little ice age by Paul Hudson in a recent BBC article. http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2013/11/solar-activity-and-the-so-called-%E2%80%9Clittle-ice-age%E2%80%9D/ The article is very interesting, and he explains clearly the implications and uncertainty associated with declining solar activity.

1.3C the min here, currently 8.7C, so it will easily be the coolest day of the Autumn so far.

Here are a few UAH Satellite Based Data from 1979 http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt NASA's GISS LOTI Ground Based Data From 1880 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt HadCRUT4 Data from 1850 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/time_series/HadCRUT.4.2.0.0.monthly_ns_avg.txt Woodfortrees has a very handy interactive charting tool that lets you compare lots of data sets and do some decent analysis on them http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/

The blocking for January to March have been on the CFS consistently for weeks now, while the blocking shown for December has been been decreasing. Best not to judge trends by looking at individual runs here and there.

What models are starting to show northern blocking?

Here's the weekly 12z CFS update. Below is the final November graph. It seems something changed quite dramatically around the 11th of October, from showing moderate to strong +ve SLP anomalies to our north to mainly neutral or negative anomalies after. A lot of variability overall, which will detract from it's predictive value, but perhaps if November end up with average SLP to our north, then it may show some use. Below is the latest December chart. The last 7 days have averaged 1.1 or weak +ve SLP anomalies, with 1 -ve run, 1 neutral and 5 +ve (previous week was 1.3, with 2 -ve and 5 +ve). The slow downward trend continues, but the 10 day average remain +ve. Below is the January chart January remain firmly in the moderate blocking category. The last 7 days have averaged 2, moderate +ve SLP anomalies, with 2 runs showing neutral and 5 positive (previous 7 days averaged 2.3, with 6 +ve and 1 neutral). The long term trend is slightly negative, but the 10 day averaged has climbed quite a bit over the last 2 weeks and if this continues, the trend line should even out. Some highlighted charts from the last week. Best January from the 12z CFS on October 31st Worst December 12z CFS from October 28th

10.0C to the 2nd http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2013 Yesterday was 9.7C. Minimum today is 6.2C while maxima look like reaching close to 11C, so a drop to 9.5C is likely tomorrow. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at 8.5C to the 4th (5.4) 8.3C to the 5th(7.7) 8.4C to the 6th (8.5) 8.4C to the 7th (8.7) 8.4C to the 8th (8.4) 8.3C to the 9th (7.3) 8.0C to the 10th (5.4) A start quite close to the 61-90 average, above the 1772-2012 average and below the 81-10 average.

Upper air values look like remaining close to or a little above average across the Arctic Ocean over the next few days, which should send us above 2006 (which drops to lowest on record during November). We are though, now reaching the point where the majority of the growth needs to start coming from outside the Arctic Ocean, from areas such as Hudson Bay, Baffin and Barents/Kara seas. Temperatures in these areas are forecast to be largely above average over the next week (with the Baffin sea slightly below average) so combined with the +ve SST anomalies, we will likely see a significant slow down in growth during the week with us moving closer to the last 6 years, but probably not dropping below any of them yet.

Current weather is really beginning to feel winter-like, a beautiful bite to the air.

With a min today of 6.3C and maxima around around 12.5C, we should see a drop to something around 9.9C on tomorrows update. After that, the 12z GFS op run has the CET near 9.4C to the 3rd (8.4) 8.6C to the 4th (6.2) 8.4C to the 5th (7.8] 8.6C to the 6th (9.1) 8.5C to the 7th (8.2) 8.5C to the 8th (8.7) 8.5C to the 9th (7.9)

The warming continues SI. The climate systems continues to accumulate heat the oceans are warming Pacific Ocean Accumulating Heat Faster Than at Any Time in the Past 10,000 Years the air is warming the sea level is rising the ice is melting The evidence is there for all to see.

The second line of my post seemed apt at the time, given your opinions of everyone you deem to be on this side of the debate, other than FB. With regard to the climate, the main man-made forcing appears to from CO2 and particulate pollution, nothing about that. As for the subsequent feedbacks, there is always going to be a level of uncertainty involved in any measurement or prediction. But the evidence is almost unequivocal that the feedbacks will be positive, just how strongly positive is the issue. I don't think you'll find anybody here would dismiss scientific research of any kind out of hand, so there is certainly no need to hold back from posting data to back up your opinions. Any sceptically inclined person would insist on evidence as a foundation to opinion. Clouds and aerosols do appear to be the biggest area of uncertainty presently. The current understanding has improved, but even with considerable uncertainty, it's not a case of whether -ve /aerosol cloud feedbacks could stop warming, but whether is will slow it a moderate amount or a small amount. When looking at cloud feedbacks alone the main claims for a strong -ve cloud feedback have been gradually fading over the years, as more and more data/research has come through. Currently, the best estimates are for a small +ve feedback from clouds, based not on assumptions now, but evidence. http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_Chapter07.pdf I personally find it difficult to roconcile the gradual Milankovitch cycles induced cooling from 8,000 years ago until the 19th century, then the rapid warming, heat accumulation within the climate system, and current large radiative imbalance, with a continuation of the climates natural status quo. It is simply the scientific, better yet, the sceptical way, to produce evidence for your opinions. The graphs, papers, data, etc, are all easily searchable and take little effort to post a link here. The problem with just posting (potentially baseless) opinions and getting put off at requests for evidence, is that it allows myths, falsehoods, conjecture and assumptions to propagate at the expense of evidence based research, which is the antithesis of scientific scepticism. All of which has nothing to do with open mindedness imo.

...give a man religion, he'll die praying for a fish.

Any chance of a comment on the theorised artificial feedbacks you've been mentioning? I hope it's not the case that asking for examples and evidence is viewed as hostility?

I did a fairly detailed post on this last year, which you might find of use http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74491-winter-2012-2013-part-2/?p=2373163 Seemed the strength, rather than phase, is what matters most.

I don't think the temperature values are of much use, I only really posted them for interest's sake. Temperature forecasts are much tougher in general than getting the broad pattern I find. Does that paper mention why they only tried correlation from 1997? Seems there's plenty more data than that.

Whisht now, stop criticising capitalism or go move to North Korea you commie

The map show below average temeratures for much of Ireland, smithyweather. It would appear to be in agreement with you!

Agreed. It could be that when ENSO is weak/neutral, other factors begin to dominate our weather to a much greater extent. Narrowing it further to a combination of neutral ENSO and +ve QBO gives this for DJF Those combination of years produce a winter CET average of 3.8C

Looks like we equalled the record warmest day for October 15th, at 14.0C. The whole month only saw 2 days below the average of the entire series, the 10th (8.4C) and 11th (9.9C). We now need November to finish on 8.2C to reach the top 10 (joint 7th) warmest Autumn on record and 8.5C for joint 5th warmest. The 06z GFS would have us in the high 9s by the 8th, so a very mild November certainly can't be ruled out.