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BornFromTheVoid

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Everything posted by BornFromTheVoid

  1. It shows that a linear trend is not suitable when you have a massive discontinuity in the data set, no?
  2. There's been a good rebound in extent since the weekend. NSIDC extent jumped nearly 400k from the 8th to the 11th, while IJIS jumped 260k during the same time. Looking at the next 3 days, relative warmth and southerly winds look set to dominate the Bering Sea, and Kara sea, but between 4 and 5 days out, some very cold air flood both regions, which may promote a big gains in these areas. Cold air looks set to remain in place in the Baffin sea for the foreseeable future, so strong gains look set to continue there. Meanwhile, bouts of cold air get sent across Hudson Bay, which should help it to see it's first significant gains of the Autumn over the coming 5 days.
  3. Hopefully the NISDC data is back consistently now Update for the week to November 9th The current 1 day extent is 9,324,460km2, while the 5 day mean is on 9,304,128km2 The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -915,140km2, an increase from -594,170km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average has decreased from +683,280km2 to +200,693km2 this week. We're currently 5th lowest on record, compared to 7th lowest last week. The average daily increase over the last 7 days was +13.4k/day, compared to the long term average of +59.3k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +79.2k/day. The average long term increase over the next week is +69.3k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +78.5k/day. The increase so far this November is the 2nd smallest on record. To record the largest November gain in total, an average daily increase of 118k/day is required for the next 21 days.
  4. Slowdowns in extent growth are common right through Autumn and Winter (as are storms). This slowdown seems a little more significant than previous ones for this time of year. Whether it continues on, or we see a rebound, remains to be seen of course.
  5. I'll be away for a few days, so it might be Monday or Tuesday before I can post up something detailed. In the meantime, the first thing I did with sea ice was download the NSIDC data from here and here, and put it into a spreadsheet, like excel and start making graphs and doing some basic analysis. There's a lot that can be learned from playing with those numbers, looking for things that stand out, comparing to the daily concentration maps like on here, or reanalysis charts, or other weather charts. That's how I started on anyway!
  6. A drop of 66k on the NSIDC extent The current stall is looking quite remarkable.
  7. I find sea ice in general quite interesting (did my undergrad dissertation sea ice and weather), because of what a big impact it can have and how dynamic it is. It's one of the few things were you can study how the weather, natural cycles, climate and other things can influence it on a variety of time scales. There are many sources of info on it too, which are updated daily and can make monitoring the sea ice, even for the layman, interesting and easy. For example, during the summer, the GFS might show a strong storm forming over the sea ice. You can then track that storm using satellite imagery, watch in near real-time as it churns and breaks up the sea ice, track how it affects the coverage compared to the long term daily data, monitor the floating buoys to see how it affecting the ocean, if it's causing warm salty water to upwell, follow the polar ship's webcams as they survey the areas taking detailed measurements and much more, all from the comfort of your own home! The current conditions won't necessarily impact our weather, but to go this long without sea ice growth is highly unusual, so I think it warrants regular updates. As it is, daily to weekly changes in Arctic sea ice are unlikely to affect us during the winter (much like the snow cover), but on time scales of months to seasons, it can certainly can have a big impact. If you'd like, I can make a detailed post on how monthly to seasonal sea ice variations may influence our weather in general?
  8. No need to make it personal Feb91. Pointing out their wider costs and problems doesn't mean I want to return to the stone age. Fossil fuels have had there place and will continue to have their place. It doesn't change their negative impacts, and the costs beyond what you pay at the pump. It also doesn't change climate science, however much people want to make it a political/ideological issue. The role of variations in solar activity on our atmospheric circulation is very poorly understood, as someone with a self accredited sceptical mind, I'm sure you'd agree. So the certainty you're ascribing to the effects of solar activity simply aren't backed up by the research or evidence. Try applying your scepticism to more than just CO2! The pattern of warming one would expect from increased solar activity isn't there, so it cannot be the leading cause anyway. It's like using petrol to set you house on fire for the insurance money, then claiming it was caused by a lightening strike from a storm that passed nearby. You don't have to disagree with the fact that there was a storm, to determine that your claim is untrue?
  9. Regulated by the Milankovitch cycles? The warm ups are rapid, the cool downs are more gradual it seems?
  10. It's not too hard to achieve record growth coming from record lows though. http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg Antarctic sea ice is currently at record highs, but this should probably be kept to the northern hemisphere. The thread on Antarctica is here you're interested http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/64332-antarctic-ice-discussion/page-33
  11. Only it doesn't. Solar activity has undergone many ups and downs over the last few thousand years, why didn't they impact the climate in the same way as now? If the warming was down to solar activity, the nights wouldn't be warming faster than the days, the stratosphere wouldn't be cooling and we wouldn't be seeing less energy leaving the planet at the CO2 absorption wavebands,
  12. I was referring to the longer term. We had Milankovitch driven cooling from 8,000 years ago until shortly after the industrial revolution, just as would be expected as we head into the next glacial period. Then it all reversed in an incredibly dramatic fashion.
  13. 8.2C to the 8th? http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html Min today of 2.0C, while maxima look like reaching over 7C, so a drop to 7.8C is likely on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at 7.6C to the 10th (5.4) 7.7C to the 11th (9.3) 7.9C to the 12th (9.6) 7.8C to the 13th (7.4) 7.9C to the 14th (8.1) 7.7C to the 15th (5.0) 7.5C to the 16th (4.2)
  14. Opinions on taxation doesn't change the reality of the science. But if you're going to go down the road of costs, what about the billions in subsidies given by the UK to fossil fuels companies? The cost of foreign wars to protect energy supplies? The health costs from pollution due to fossil fuels? I think they add up to considerably more than the green tax.
  15. After a drop of 31k, we've now had no sea ice growth for 5 days, so it's becoming more and more unusual. We've dropped below 2007 and 2010, so we're now 4th lowest on record. If we don't increase by at least 24k tomorrow we'll be 3rd lowest on record for the time of year..
  16. But when you have a good grasp of why it cooled and warmed over seemingly very predictable cycles, and then it appears to be following that exact cycle once more, cooling toward the next glacial period for 8,000 years, only for it to suddenly start going in the opposite direction and start warming at rates not seen for many millennia, then you gotta start asking some questions! Why aren't we going the opposite way to the natural cycles? What's changed?
  17. SS look at the published science, often using published scientists, to present what is a quite moderate and evidenced based defence of climate science. IAN is a spoof site that looks at isolated weather events and claims they all indicate a catastrophic ice age is approaching. They certainly do not balance. If you find a spoof site that claims every small warm spell is a sign of the Earth going into a Venus like state, then you might have some balance!
  18. Pity. I presumed most research funded by US state bodies was made freely available. Will have to make do with the Rutgers snow data
  19. So did many start the course? I've seen a two familiar names of the discussion forum at least!
  20. Anyone know where I could find a time series of the snow advance index?
  21. It's 4 days with no appreciable sea ice growth now. We could well slip back into the lowest 5 on record during the weekend. Strong southerly winds continue to flow over the Kara/Barents region, as well as around the Bering strait now, affecting the Chukchi and Bering seas. The main areas for growth over the next 5 days will be the Baffin sea and Hudson Bay. The average increase for 2002-2012 over the next 5 days is 63k/day, while the 2007-2012 average is 61k/day. According to the IJIS stats, a growth of anything less than 65k/day will put 2013 in the lowest 5 on record, while less than 20k/day will achieve the lowest 3 on record, by next Wednesday. Something to keep an eye on.
  22. IJIS continues to stagnate, with almost no growth in 5 days. This means that 2012 is the only year that's more than 200k lower than this year, and we're now just 75k and 109k ahead of 2007 and 2009 respectively. We'll probably in back into the lowest 5 on record during the weekend. We should see growth begin again in a few days, as some very cold air is now over parts of Baffin Sea and Hudson Bay, both of which typically experience strong growth during November. Southerly winds will continue to affect the Barents/Kara area and all around the Bering Strait over the next 5 days though, so there is unlikely to be any great improvements in those regions.
  23. For just snow falling, I'll guess December 6th then.
  24. Webcam from Barocay http://boracaylive.com/boracay-beach-live-camera/ Location https://maps.google.com/maps?q=boracay+philippines&ll=11.953349,121.948242&spn=25.96526,43.286133&hnear=Boracay+Island&t=h&z=5
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