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Matt12345

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Posts posted by Matt12345

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I think I might join you there TEITS. Starting to get to me. God help us when we go back to classic mild muck (which will happen this winter, it wouldn't be a normal British winter without it). If people are moaning with charts like this just 96 hours away then they have absolutely no sense of perspective:

    http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20091212/06/96/h500slp.png

    As you say, some people need to get a grip.

    Fair enough. Problem is when we hit 96 hours away from now that chart wont verify, and another chart like that will show for 96 hours away from then and so on.

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Yes, temps are definitely downgrading at the moment as is to be expected really as the GFS fine tunes things. So far the last few runs have lifted max temps on Tuesday from -4 to -2 here and the 6z is no exception. I still think this could end up a huge disappointment for SOME on here i.e. those who are expected heavy, settling snow, simply because ground temps are higher than we would like. Even on the 0z minima are around 3-4c on the coasts and inland are around 1-2 with things holding below 0 further W and into Wales; these of course being the areas where snow is far less likely to fall.

    Some people will undoubtedly do quite well but there is endless "amazement" on here as to why the Metoffice is refusing to ramp this up. This is simply because they can't see huge potential for widespread snow and disruption - and ice is unlikely to be too much of a problem either. Whilst the synoptics are absolutely stunning, we're still missing the deep cold pool of cold spells from the past and with it the low temperatures and acute convection. Sorry to be a bore but look at the amazing synoptics here and the (comparatively) disappointing minima:

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1141.png

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn11417.png

    Nights holding above 0 in many parts, although conditions are probably just about right for snow to fall. I still feel that cool to cold temperatures, cool uppers and a distinct lack of ppn for most of the time does not a spectacular cold spell make. The general forecast for a cool to cold period with wintry showers and some snow at times may well hold true - and whilst I'd welcome that any day, some people might not be so content...

    Agreed. If temps across the country are not below 0 during the day, this will not be a cold spell. Temps of 3-6 are nothing exciting in my book.

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    It's not, but NeilSouth always looks at his part of the world, not the gernal chart/run/model it's self. He's bias.

    lewis

    After all the fantastic charts the models have been producing really (including all the very cold potential) if the we see day time temps of around 2-5 over the next week or so, i would not call it a 'cold spell'. Cold to to me is day time temps below 0.

    Cold Spell General Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Will the ECM set the trend now in the models or will it come back in line? Hopefully not another :D situation.

    The February 2005 cold snap was a disaster here. It snowed on about 4 nights giving a covering for it to all melt during the day. Minimum temperatures constantly around 0c and maximum 4c.

    For such a great synoptic setup it was a huge letdown. January 2009 was the best. Very dry but very cold. Both my lowest Maximum (-0.5c) and lowest minimum (-8.4c) was recorded that month.

    This is exactly what i dont want to see from this potential cold setup. We had the same here just south of Bristol. No real cold temps, lots of wet snow. The sort of snow that settles on cars and grass and a bit over the roads. As the snow was falling the snow was melting off roof tops, I hate this. I want temperatures below zero, dry snow blowing around! None of this horrible wet stuff, where you just get soaked trying to sledge on wet snow/grass/mud. Horrid.

    Feb 1991 was the last time there was real cold and real snow.

    Model Output Discussion - Sunday 20:35--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    High pressure building over the Uk is Certain and by Friday should cover the whole country , The fact that it will cool down is also nailed on . Cold and Snow isn't nailed on and won't be till a couple of days before. The high could go North enough to allow real real cold and heavy snow or it could stay put over us which at this time of year would cause alot of Fog and Frost which would also see temps struggle.

    Thanks for the reply.

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by shuggee
    No need to quote the whole post :-)

    <snip>If its gonna happen the window is there between day 11 & 15-

    Steve

    Thanks Steve for the great read. Lots of model information there for a newbie like me to learn from. This really makes a change from many random

    posts, especially the ups and downs. Good straight to point information.

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Is this to be taken as gospel ? I think that all of a sudden people are too keen to use the MJO and 'GWO' as drivers, which they are not at all proven to be.

    The models have turned out a little disapointing for some people, so a little cluching at straws is happening i think Ian. Lets see what happens later..

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    lol as little as 5 hours ago exciting stuff now complete dissapointment.

    this is why i refuse to bother with fi will the cold win out well i dont think so.

    My first post of this season, had to do it now. Great point by badboy657, sums this thread up really sometimes. But hey, I love the ups and downs

    of model watching. Just waiting for the TEITS and S.Murr for their points of view.

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