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surrey slush

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Everything posted by surrey slush

  1. surrey slush
    Think it's got more to do with the penalty system, if they announce a reduced schedule because of the weather, they don't lose as much, as if they try to run a full service and fail.
  2. surrey slush
    Indeed it's not, two independent measures, but consistency taken with the verification results, do give some credence to the ECM Atm, Whereas GFS flapping + the lower verification tends to undermine it. I think we can relegate Timmy's ramblings to the 'noise' pile, along with seagulls and grannie's joints.
  3. surrey slush
    Is this storm possible, it doesn't seem to be showing up on UKM, and no warnings from them either... Is this another MFish storm, or is it just the GFS playing with it's spirograph?
  4. surrey slush
    How likely is that beast to verify I wonder, should I be oiling the chainsaws?
  5. surrey slush
    I'm going to be driving in it, happy happy joy joy.
  6. surrey slush
    I suspect, that it's a little more prosaic than that; Summer - greater Solar input> more energy > more entropy> less reliable modeling.
  7. surrey slush
    Steve, it's not your location, it's you, you have a personal snow dome... North surrey is a ****hole don't come here.
  8. surrey slush
    Slowing down now in Chertsey, but I think that lump over Eastbourne has got my name on it (after plastering where I work in Horsham) ... And out of f..ing marginal air amazing.
  9. surrey slush
    Heh heh indeed, but I'll think you'll find a puzzle with 501 pieces out of 500 ..... will produce a markedly different image from the one on the front of the box
  10. surrey slush
    Ok, I simply don't have enough information to make a call on what the weather will do 28th+. But what should we be looking for in the models in the next few days to help us pick a horse? To my mind I'm not even looking for a GH @ 200hrs+, what I'm looking for first is ens support for whatever the OP run of the day is showing to break down, as seen prior to the the current event. It is painfully clear the the current models really can't deal with SSW downwellings. I'm not too disheartened by zonal models off into lalaland, but the good inter and intra model agreement is a bit worrying. The coldie in me is saying, even the comedy models can model a breakdown, and things like 920mb lows say things are afoot that just haven't been anticipated by the models, which by their very nature will always tend to the mean. What auguries do more seasoned members think we should be looking for in the steaming guts of the models?
  11. surrey slush
    Started snizzling again here in Chertsey in the far nw, a band formed on the radar right overhead, and has now joined with the London mass?? Been an odd day, been right on the margin, but it just hasn't stopped.
  12. surrey slush
    I'm up the hill, in Lyne, it's amazing how much more we get up here compared to you swampies down there in thorpe. Heading down to the Grove for a pint in a min if I can get the car down the lane.
  13. surrey slush
    I quite like tungent, but if you're going to be picky the orange light is low pressure sodium, and the whiter streetlights are generally high pressure sodium, although some newer ones are fluor types. =)
  14. surrey slush
    You could even look @ the radar on NW... but TBH, i think the NAE slagging off was because everyone thought it was pulling the 'friday' event into today weakening it and stalling it, whereas it was picking up a signal for what we now see. Well that and IF posted that the 'chief' at the MetO had binned/modified it.
  15. surrey slush
    Yes, should be OK, by then, leave early though, getting there could be worse than the flight.
  16. surrey slush
    For all those thinking the BBC weather service is a joke, after watching Cockup, here's Fergies offering for the SW tonight: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/news/newsid_7760000/7760862.stm Just to restore (some) faith in the beeb.
  17. surrey slush
    Hi John, .... What exactly should I be looking at here.... soo many options on Extra.
  18. surrey slush
    Indeed, which means, he binned it. Jesus chinese whispers or what.
  19. surrey slush
    Home is up the hill in Lyne (work in Horsham, raining here) ... let us know if it sticks, I don't want to get stuck on the 25 coming home.
  20. surrey slush
    It was always supposed to be a rain to snow event, suspect that it's just not showing the transition.
  21. surrey slush
    Heh heh, they've probably been looking at the same upstream data you have, if the double shortwave never forms on any of the models but the GFS, It can hardly come steaming through our block... (Hopefully haven't misunderstood what you were posting)
  22. surrey slush
    Just Started Chertsey
  23. surrey slush
    Should that front not be moving by now? It seems to have been stalled for 3 hours now.
  24. surrey slush
    I know Xmas is over, but the big box is under the tree, I just hope it's that BBC B and not the casio keyboard. As we're in an 80s mood
  25. surrey slush
    Rain / hail now ....35mins ... Quite relieved have been confidently pooh poohing the predictions of Armageddon from those at work hoping for another day off.
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