Costa Del Fal
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Posts posted by Costa Del Fal
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I have feeling 35c might be a little far fetched but I am going for 34c in Pershore tomorrow and to be the hottest in the country. Similar story here, perhaps more like 33c but I reckon we can be hotter than London/SE tomorrow as the wind direction is as favourable as it can get for us. Even Shrewsbury should beat 30c! This is way better than last 1st July imo. The 30th June was superb but the 1st July had a lot of cloud at times. Tomorrow will bring very similar temperatures and wall to wall sun for many. Stunning day ahead.
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Latest GFS 18z perhaps increasing the SE extent of PPN, better for the W Mids tomorrow night but otherwise fairly little change. Could some of the models potential underestimation of the heat tomorrow affect their ability to compute how the cap near the Midlands might erode?
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11 minutes ago, weather09 said:
Consistency with latest ECM - NI/Scotland midnight; Wales, N England and south and east Scotland from 06z to early afternoon.
Think much of W Mids is out of the game based on recent day's model outputs (apart from north-west of the region), which have remained solid with this outlook.
Agreed. Think we can begin to rule ourselves out now. Not a 0% chance but low I think now. Even in Wales it might just be the far west and North that catches something. SW Scotland looks the place to be for me. Ah well, I am enjoying the prospect of such an extraordinary day tomorrow. 33c at least according to the MO here now. And it always seems to increase that forecast on the day too...
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Quite remarkable really to think we could end up just a few degrees of the national all time temperature record! Very hot by any means! Some local weather station records could go perhaps, especially Tuesday night.
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Met office going for at least 32/33c tomorrow here.
could be one of the hottest days ever in these parts as central and southern Midlands look to be the hottest in the country. Lovely hot and sunny late afternoon and now now evening as well. -
Ben rich on BBC news just now hinting at storms moving into the Midlands on Wednesday.
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Yes a fair bit more cloud than expected but it is beginning to clear now and satellite shows an ever improving picture. Hot now anyway. 30-34c looking good across our patch tomorrow.
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18 minutes ago, weather09 said:
Ah yes, just saw it. Small warm front lol. Bit odd that official Met synoptic outputs aren't showing it. Think the focus, though, will be as 500mb heights fall from the west, together with disturbances aloft running north engaging very moist and unstable air mass. Steering flow looks like it might be southerly with sfc low tracking NE. Close call for here, then...
Certainly a fairly close call for us here in this region. Of course not to be taken too literally but I think recent GFS runs have brought ppn eastward a little or at least increased the eastward extent/coverage of potential storms overnight Tuesday and during Wednesday. So whilst the bulk of ppn still currently looks to favour the far SW, Wales, IOM and NW England into Scotland, I think there has been some switch to bring the W Midlands and more central parts of N England into play. Going by the GFS, areas west and north of a line from about Yeovil, Bristol, Coventry, Sheffield and Newcastle would have a chance at something imo. All likely to change still though.
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Lovely warm afternoon here with long sunny spells. Temperatures already 1c or so above predicted so Tuesday really could push 33-34c somewhere I think. Met office seems to show the hottest place on Tuesday should be around Worcestershire to around Birmingham/black Country. London may be just a little behind.
BBQ being lit up in a few hours. Welcome to summer all.
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Bit frustrating to see some model runs have almost all of the precipitation Tuesday night in the Irish Sea; the GFS, NMM and Netweather hi res model. However a fair few models still have the low further east. Of course on the event itself, things can turn out markedly different but the latest Netweather hi res run 18z is a shift west with the low pressure again meaning even much of Wales could miss out on the action. The flipside is another hot day Wednesday which I am equally happy with.
Still much time for change regarding the track of the low but so far, the potential for a very westerly favoured breakdown meaning E Ireland, IOM and W Scotland see the proper destabilisation of the plume. England may see almost nothing apart from the far SW perhaps i.e Cornwall and Isles of Scilly. But as said, a fair few models with the low further east and history would have it that slight eastward corrections would be expected although I may have expected that to begin a little somewhat by now though still 3 days to go.
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2 minutes ago, knocker said:
Whoever started this diving trough rumour with the ecm must immediately go and stand in the corner for two hours.
Lol, not me although I have mentioned it too though on second look it is not anything significant (yet at least). Just of course any low pressure to our SW would keep the warm flow coming for that bit longer but all very insignificant to what is ahead in the next few days. For anything significant you need low pressure/low heights much more well to the SW like what will happen in the next couple of days as this promotes the high pressure ahead of it to the East. Anyway, all likely to change and merely anything compared to the next few days.
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Just now, Greenland1080 said:
Def not a plume mate for that you want a Bartlett feeding complete African air straight up into Uk...this def isn't a plume event too short, not hot enough, just a basic warmth of air nothing more. Plumes are hotter an longer lasting. don't even need an ice cream with this
Hehe, had a chuckle at that.
I might need one though. Magnum anyone? Or maybe even a Fab or Solero? Back on topic, the ECM is interesting with another diving trough later next week. Nothing to repeat what we will see in the next few days but a pleasant enough set up temperature wise at least for the rest of the week. Longer term who knows given recent model flips but interesting times for model watching after a fairly prolonged quiet period.
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20 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:
Def not a southern drawn plume proper....Nonsense to call it a proper African drawn plume..,BBC are useless an grabbing on to anything...believe me this isn't a plume event.
Can someone help me with where the air is coming from then? Following the isobars, looks like the air is coming up from Spain/Med to me and even some element from N Africa mixed in too. The event is brief but pretty much all events like this are. Dont think I have ever seen a plume event with strong isobar lines all the way down to Africa - pressure is always relatively low and 'messy' around Spain, presumably heat lows, small disturbances? I know you don't like the heat mate but I cannot see how it is not a plume? Always keen to hear other opinions though. We are all learning.
Classic 2-3 fine days and a then a thunderstorm to me!
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NAVGEM again really having the party vibes tonight for Tuesday. 34-35c temps Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning, the 24c 850hPa line makes it to the SE coast! Yes it is probably being a little excessive but GEM also bringing the 20c hPa line further in tonight than yesterday I think.
The charts from the NAVGEM may be a little silly but what the heck, some close shades to last 1st July!
In all seriousness, I expect 28-31c will be quite widespread then a 32c somewhere around the South and West Midlands through to the home counties area then maybe a 33 possibly 34c at the very maximum in the London hot spots.
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Tuesday is going to an absolute scorcher. Sunny all day. 31c is already predicted for here so I reckon 33-34c here on the day quite in reach if things stay as they are. Met Office maps showing nicely that London and SW Midlands (I.e along the Severn Estuary area from Glocuester/Pershore to Stourbridge) reaching the maximum temperatures though many look like seeing ~30c. Then a substantial storm risk overnight into Wednesday. In recent years our storms seem to come overnight or in particular, early in the morning in these types of set ups and it looks like again this may happen. No gripes from me on that, scorching day and potential cracking night time lightning display! Win win!
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These 'heat spikes' never last long with weak high pressure to the east and low pressure waiting out west and heat lows developing over the nearby continent. However Tuesday for France will bring some extreme heat with ~40c likely for some. If the ~20c 850hPa line can encroach a little further northwards and time itself well for Tuesday i cannot see why 32-34c cannot be ruled out. I would not expect it to be quite as extreme as 1st July 2015 but a similarish set up and what is of note is how large the plus 15c 850hPa body of heat will be to our south and penetrating northwards. If the incoming lows could slow down a little (yes a big ask for the UK lol), then in my opinion I see a possibility of a similar style day to last 1st July.
I know the NAVGEM is not the best model out there but if I remember correctly, it was not actually far off the mark with some of it's temperature predictions in last years heat spike and in the end was not so silly after all. Here is the current output for this coming Tuesday...
In summary, delay the low just a bit and albeit brief, Tuesday has the potential to be a very hot day for central and southern (esp SE parts). Regardless, looks like a pretty hot one anyway! Anywhere within the 15c plus isotherm is likely to have a hot feeling day.
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Lovely afternoon here.
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Downgrade on the ECM 12z too this evening. Cooler air quickly filtering south again and the ridge looking less potent and susceptible to troughing from the north again. Sigh. Was too good to be true again wasn't it.
Still time for change but were heading towards the downgrades of yesterday again.
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16.1c please. Terrible summer charts. Only cloudy nights managing to keep the temperature up.
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9 hours ago, Pennine Ten Foot Drifts said:
Isn't there a theory that a warmer atmosphere = more moisture held aloft = more cloud, especially at certain latitudes ? Added to that the theory that a warmer Arctic relative to mid-latitudes is affecting the jet stream in summer, i.e. keeping it more active and further south ? Put the two together and it doesn't make for good reading if you're a UK dweller who enjoys sunshine and long hot summers................
Looking at the charts posted a few posts above and what has happened so much in recent times is that in the W Atlantic, the Jet stream is running at a position that at our longitude on Earth, many would have good summer weather but time after time a kink develops and the jet suddenly dives south just before it reaches the UK, bringing us back on the cool, wet side of things. Fed up of it.
I really think Arctic ice melt has a lot to answer for. If so, our summers will not get better for a long time yet.
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Cracking light show in Bremen, Germany currently.
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A bit depressing when looking at charts into July that there is no sign of that first 30c yet. What I don't get is how even with low heights near the poles, low pressure still 'seeps' down to the uk so much and sits there? As I said last night, the jet never seems to actually move north anymore. I thought it's summer position was between Scotland and Greenland or at least Iceland. No such thing anymore. What made 2013 so different (for a time at least). It does worry me arctic ice melt has a lot to answer for. If it was, we're screwed for years to come! Lol.
But these are not typical summer charts. Again, no massive washout but very underwhelming and the most disappointing aspect is the temperatures knowing that December 2015 will probably be only marginally cooler than some of the upcoming dross. Even worse when everyone else in Europe seems pretty much unaffected.
Still, lots of summer to go yet but based on recent summers and similar patterns to this, I place a good bet that September/October will as usual be the late summer saviour with high pressure finally sitting over the U.K. again! Lol.
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Nearly 70-80,000 recent lightning strikes around that E Netherlands/W Germany storm. Doubtless loads more undetected. Incredible.
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Very underwhelming output on the whole. No washout yes but just very meh if you ask me. Always a bad sign when you see a big fat circular high in the Atlantic which current model output shows - the higher the heights there the lower heights seem to be here. Just allows depressions to roll around and sit over is. The U.K. Seems to have the winter equivalent of the Icelandic semi-permanent low pressure in summer. I'm sure in the pet the jet had a much easier time of aligning SW-NE. It's always said the jet shifts north in summer - it doesn't seem to do that anymore? The Azores high never seems to exert influence on is like it has done before either. Seems to struggle so much to ridge towards us and form the 'sausage' shape towards us. Instead it is a big round ball doing no one any favours.
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could be one of the hottest days ever in these parts as central and southern Midlands look to be the hottest in the country. Lovely hot and sunny late afternoon and now now evening as well. 
I really think Arctic ice melt has a lot to answer for. If so, our summers will not get better for a long time yet.
Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by Costa Del Fal
Hirlam 18z is quite interesting. First batch of storms NI/Scotland as per but then the second round Wednesday morning seemingly much more East than I remember on previous runs from it with precipitation erupting W Country, then moving through W Midlands before reaching N England. As said seems to have shifted East from previous runs or just also increased the SE extent of things.
Still against the main model consensus though for now at least.
Latest 18z NMM seems to break some cells out over the W Mids region too especially Staffs/Shrops but not exclusively.