Costa Del Fal
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Posts posted by Costa Del Fal
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Lack of rain beginning to show here now with lawns starting to go brown in places now. Doesn't look like much rain on the horizon either.
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Well done and thanks to all forecasters who had a go at this event. Plumes are never easy to predict. And well done to all who had storms.
Bit disappointed we didn't get anything here apart from a few distant rumbles earlier as in a good solid plume, we usually get something but this was on the whole very much a northern event so nice to see some others get a chance at some decent storms. However I'm not too disappointed as it always looked knife edge here but in return today was another hot day with plentiful sun again.
Given how this plume appeared relatively out of the blue last week, every hope another will arrive before summer is out. Still a good couple of months at least of storm potential.
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Distant Thunder heard here.
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Can also hear distant thunder here.
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Crikey, Perhsore already ~29c and many local stations here are 28-29c too. Could we scrape another 30c?
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Another sferic Brecon/Crickhowell way?
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Exceptionally warm here. 24-25c still according to local stations. All quiet though still. Most models still showing Nothing tomorrow morning here though perhaps a last chance tomorrow afternoon. Met office going for a thundery shower mid afternoon.
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Sferic near Bristol according to blitzortung. Hopefully not false.
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40 minutes ago, Gord said:
Looking a little bit out of reach tonight and tomorrow for storms I have to say.
But, on the plus side, we certainly got the heat today.
...and can't complain if we miss out on the storms after all those direct hits in June,
Yes we did well in June and today our region was pretty much hottest in the country. The plus side of no storms tomorrow means we should scrape another hot day. Not as hot as today but 25-28c quite possible and some good long sunny spells possible again.
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Didn't think the screw zone sounded good for us. Not entirely surprised. Very still and exceptionally humid though and I have a headache I am struggling to shake off. Looks like this energy will come to nothing sadly here though.
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37 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:
Triple point is (as you may know) the wave crest on the polar front or the northernmost position of tropical air on the surface. Right now there are weak sea breeze fronts pushing the tropical air east across Ireland and a cold front in central Biscay. The triple point is weakly defined at present, but by late overnight when tropical air is lifted off the surface in Ireland, a developing active triple point will be found west of Brittany heading towards landfall about Plymouth except that rapid destabilization late tonight may reset it closer to Portland for landfall. The feature will be much better defined by about 0600-0800h and will be moving in sync with the developing low pressure centre northeast across Britain. I think the cap will hold in regions east of a Lancs to east Wilts-Hamps line overnight but this development will rapidly erode the cap tomorrow. So the cap is only going to prevent some development tonight and may become a non-factor tomorrow, in any case the region it could apply to will be swept out east of the forecast region by the changing upper air pattern. There's going to be a "screw zone" probably, my guess as to where is west Midlands to Oxford.
Is this screw zone good news or not for us in it? Lol
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Tony on UkWW has issued his forecast for tomorrow. Great for northern areas but not here, same for convective weather. Can see storms beginning around Stoke northwards. Dry for us in the Midlands and South I'm afraid it looks to be.
best of luck to all concerned though
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I urge everyone to have a BBQ tonight, release some extra heat and energy into the atmosphere. Hehe.
shame to hear that perhaps dry storms won't actually be possible here given too much moisture. Never knew that. Ah well.
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Lots of stations round here seem to be reporting 32-33c.
Some a little higher than that too! -
The met office video forecast out currently suggests lightning from mid level storms for us in the SW quarter of the country with little rain. Perhaps hinting there could be some 'dry storms' tonight as hinted above like in previous years.
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32-33c widely around here now. 34c should be good with a couple more hours of heating still left. Odd 35c possible too.
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5 minutes ago, weather09 said:
5km WRF-NMM has storms developing over West Mids during early hours...
But makes it that much more sweet when you're not really expecting storms but then get them, rather than having good confidence that'll your area will be affected. Sets you up for a letdown, if anything.
Hmm it does on the meteociel France view but if you go to the uk view the Ppn is different and no storms although some Ppn moves through tomorrow mid morning.
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Hopefully the Ac cas is a good sign for later though chances remain below 20% imo. Gfs looks good but not really being a hi res model it is probably too broad brushed with the Ppn. Hi res models showing that it's really a more confined event likely.
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Seeing some ac cas clouds here now. Very hot.
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Local stations generally above 30c now. Ahead of met office expectation. 34c looking good right now.
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Yes, 6z is pretty good for the W Mids but I have my doubts. Most hi res modelling showing little promise.
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Already 28c according to my car thermometer here which usually is actually not far off the mark!
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7 minutes ago, conor123 said:
Overnight low of 15.9c in the end, perfect blue skies this morning already up to 22.3c, possibly the warmest day in 10 days to the exact date today!
10 days? Not as remarkable as I thought this spell then. Hehe.
good luck on 30c plus today!
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18z Euro4 rolling out and not much change to 12z. In fact perhaps a little less ppn N England early Wednesday but the model does develop some storms W Midlands on Wednesday afternoon. Other models have brought something similar in, presumably the cold front engaging on a still very warm, humid airmass. CAPE values etc still seem quite significant here at this point.
The Midlands - Weather Chat - Spring Onwards
in Regional
Posted
GFS does look a bit wet tomorrow but Meto, BBC etc all pointing to light scraps of rain really if anything.