Costa Del Fal

I am just going to use this from now on until normality resumes...

Ok, so going to attempt at a synopsis of the models for the coming couple of days and my punt on what is likely to happen. So, following a widespread frost tonight with ice risk, Saturday daylight hours at the least promises pretty much wall to wall sunshine albeit pretty cold with maxes 1-4c for most. Then FI seems to begin there!!! I have to say this has been one of the most volatile periods of watching model output I can remember. Fascinating to watch and the uncertainty keeps up the tension and excitement I suppose despite forecasting becoming an absolute nightmare, trying to untangle what is a mess of spaghetti to be honest. As it stands for the Midlands as of Friday evening, 2 potential snow events are at hand over the forthcoming few days, one tomorrow night/Sunday as part of a warm front being forced SE/SSE around the high pressure sitting above the UK currently/drifting slightly to our East by Sunday. The second is courtesy of fronts arriving from the Atlantic, then potentially disrupting and being forced to slide SE once more thanks to the cold high in situ to our east. In this post I shall focus on the potential around Sunday for now. Currently and still with much uncertainty, the situation of whether precipitation reaches us in my opinion, seems to depend on how stubborn the high is to our east and therefore in forcing the front before us and how steadfast the high is at slowing the atlantic fronts down and thus how easily the front can travel more east than south. My analysis has primarily consisted of using the range of models available from meteociel (http://www.meteociel.fr/). Before progressing its important that behidnthe warm front, plain rain is likely though ahead if it, sleet and snow most probable. Its where this front and associated boundary should it's ppn reach the Midlands be of key question here. Anyway, thought I would start with one of the less positive models (for snow) which is the NMM. Both the 2 and 5km resolution models do not really show any ppn reaching the Midlands. A small light area reaches Wales but nothing to shout about. The issue is the front seems to 'bounce' back North again as it reaches NW England/N Wales and doesn't keep sinking south. This remains a viable option as the NMM has stuck with this for the last few runs. An example chart is shown below which demonstrates the closest the ppn reaches us. All looking rather light and a bit sorry for itself really. Nevertheless it is fair to say I have noticed the NMM showing the ppn sinking that bit south over time compared to previous runs but needs a fair bit more to deliver anything noteworthy to us. The HIRLAM model is not inspiring either and is in fact worse than the NMM, weakening the front around the NW of the UK rather quickly although seems to have widespread 'snow flurries' at best. I have however found precipitation modelling with the HIRLAM a bit haphazard and does not seem to to have the highest resolution available so could be struggling with this. If I remember the 06z output was better for the Midlands though. The ICON/DWD Model is a bit similar although some light snowfall does seem to make it to the West Midlands...just. The NAVGEM is another no but is completely different to the above too with only some ppn grazing NW Scotland really so I really do not believe this model has the answer. However, the good news is that a good portion of models also agree on ppn of some kind reaching the Midlands, particularly western and central parts at this present time. However, here is where the western extent of any snow plays a critical role. But firstly, an overview of some of the different models below showing ppn over the Midlands. Finally the Euro4 is very keen on PPN reaching the Midlands but a clear rain/snow line prevalent. 18z GFS rolling out as I post seems to adjust the PPN slightly more SW, so maybe a bit more favourable than previous in terms of keeping the rain side away. Thought I would add a couple of FAX charts to finish for some expert opinion from Exeter. Clearly, the latest charts show that front trying to edge into the Midlands. Their corresponding symbol forecasts has snow but with as more eastern focus so bringing more of the East Mids into play though latest model data favours a more westerly push, Nevertheless, they seem quite sure ppn will reach the midlands. That front again, the key dividing line between rain/snow. It still seems to be around Monday midnight though too so suggestive of a prolonged (ish) period of light/moderate ppn. Clearly though, overall a fairly large difference remains in first, whether ppn will reach the Midlands and secondly, where the rain/snow line lies. Currently, I would rate about 65% chance of precipitation reaching our region so still a number of possibilities where it could go wrong. Should it reach the region, the west and central Midlands clearly most favoured it seems but again not without certainty. The rain/snowline is harder to call and is entirely dependent on if the front reaches down here and to some extent, ppn intensity. Some models offer a weak affair, others something more notable. No model seems to indicate anything too heavy mind. Nonetheless, on assessment of the output I would say East of about Stoke, south east towards Birmingham is a firm bet for where any ppn, should it fall, be of sleet or snow. West of here, more uncertain but the potential for bigger accumulations and hence the classic saying 'higher risk, higher reward'. I see the GFS 18z as I write this has gone for a Wales/West Midlands event in this part of the world, west of Birmingham so to speak mainly. Just one of many options! Clearly the rain/snowline becomes more insignificant to us then as the warm front is further west so higher chance of just snow. Depths wise should snow fall, nothing too significant but I reckon 0.5-3cm possible on lower ground to about 200m, possibly 3-6cm above this above this mark. Favoured spots at present would be Powys for our Welsh readers (albeit higher risk of rain as closer to the warm front boundary) and Shropshire. The Black Country, Malverns and Black Mountains/Brecons I think could also get something from this. To be honest many could see something in the west midlands region as a whole but height always an advantage thus the comments above. Somewhere between Bala/Betws-y-Coed and Stoke down to about Worcester and across to about Abergavenny would be my favoured zone in our region at least at present. Bound to all change by the morning rendering this post useless anyway! Hehe! Hope this has been a little bit useful.

Ahh this was the one I mentioned earlier but labelled as Feb 2008 instead. Crazy to think this was nearly 10 years ago. Remember it well though for the persistence of the snow and decent depths.

Spoilsport! Lol. Anyway isnt it great british tradition to hold a BBQ with the threat of soggy sausages with lightning bolts dropping in the background, edging closer? Haha.

Yes same here but with snow/sleet for Monday too. Going to try and compile a post about the next few days with my thoughts shortly as I have a rare piece called spare time!!! lol!

Erm.... Maybe in Wales, but here in the Midlands things look better.

If the highly respected hi res arpege and arome models get their way, light snow could begin tomorrow evening, not clearing till Sunday afternoon approx. Hope it's right.

Just rain here sadly.

Good to see the GFS 06z went for some light snow for us on Sunday too. anyway, this scenario early next week reminds me of Feb 2008 (I think it was). Think there were 2 or even 3 attempts of the Atlantic trying to break through but it kept turning to snow from around Bristol/Gloucester northwards. Have a very nice covering and if I remember, caught a lot out because it was expected to turn to rain far easier.

Lots of uncertainty for Saturday night/Sunday. Southward movement of that ppn looks to depend somewhat on how fast the Atlantic front for Monday is moving towards us. Met office symbols now dry for Sunday and viewing the models I would agree for now, slightly favouring that over snow but by no means a done deal yet.

Too good to be true I reckon though GFS 00z this morning gets a step closer to the 18z euro 4.

Indeed but if such a sudden shift has occurred now, it will probably all be different again tomorrow. However didn't the GFS hint at this a day or so ago briefly? would love for it to come off. Would be a brilliant Sunday.

Could explain why the met office symbols now go for widespread snow for much of Sunday here now!

Very steady moderate to heavy snow now.

Snowing again currently.

Indeed same here. Maybe very light flurries at best but even I can't really see that. Perhaps slowly growing support for some snowfall on Monday. Seems the front at the present time might edge to is enough and bump into the cold for some wintriness. Bound to change more though!

Snowing again now. should continue till dawn at the latest. Maybe a bit more tomorrow afternoon. Met office has snow showers all day here on Sunday now?

Hurrah. First dusting of the winter now.

Radar drying up now. Just some showers in Wales which almost always fail to make it here so not expecting anything now. Already feeling massively underwhelmed by this cold spell. We finally get the cold but only with high pressure. The perfect combination can never seem to make it to the uk anymore.

Seemed to be a little little sleetiness in the heavier bursts whilst driving around merry hill earlier - noticed by the splodges on the windscreen.

And you get that conclusion from where?

Agree re: proper snow. Defo a wintry mix for higher areas tonight though ESP above 150m id say.

Well if we could achieve a little bit of sleet last night, I'm hopeful of at least some more wintriness tonight. Nothing to get too excited about but maybe a few genuine snowflakes mixed in.

Nice zone of heavier ppn moving down from Cheshire/Shropshire currently towards here. Might be heavy enough for some more meaningful sleet.

Rain seems a little sleety here currently.